Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Materials
3.2. Interdependence Framework
3.3. Scenario Analysis
4. Finnish-Russian Energy Trade
4.1. Energy in Finland
4.1.1. Demand
4.1.2. Supply
- Two new nuclear power plants: Olkiluoto 3 (1600 MW, deployment in 2019) and Hanhikivi 1 (1200 MW, deployment after 2024).
- Phasing out coal in normal energy use and halving the use of imported oil.
- Increasing the share of renewable energy sources to 50% and self-sufficiency to 55% of final energy consumption.
4.2. Energy in Russia
4.2.1. Demand and Supply
4.2.2. Energy as a Strategic Asset in Russia
4.2.3. Impact of Sanctions on Russia
4.3. Energy Trade Relations between Finland and Russia
4.3.1. Primary Energy
4.3.2. Electricity
4.3.3. Political and Security Aspects of Finnish-Russian Energy Trade
5. Finnish-Russian Energy Trade in the Future
5.1. Scenario 1: Market Trends
Development of Finnish-Russian Energy Trade in the Market Trends Scenario
5.2. Scenario 2: Low Carbon
Development of Finnish-Russian Energy Trade in the Low Carbon Scenario
5.3. Scenario 3: High Carbon
Development of Finnish-Russian Energy Trade in the High Carbon Scenario
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
- European Commission. European Energy Security Strategy. Available online: Eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX%3A52014DC0330&from=EN (accessed on 9 September 2018).
- Cucchiella, F.; D’Adamo, I.; Gastaldi, M. Future Trajectories of Renewable Energy Consumption in the European Union. Resources 2018, 7, 10. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Siddi, M. The EU’s gas relationship with Russia: Solving current disputes and strengthening energy security. Asia Eur. J. 2017, 15, 107–117. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- The World Bank. Electric Power Consumption (kWh Per Capita). Available online: Data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC?year_high_desc=true (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. Energia-ja Ilmastostrategian Taustaraportti (‘Background Report of the Energy and Climate Strategy’). Available online: Tem.fi/documents/1410877/3570111/Energia-+ja+ilmastostrategian+TAUSTARAPORTTI_1.2.+2017.pdf/d745fe78-02ad-49ab-8fb7-7251107981f7 (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Richter, P.M.; Holz, F. All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe. Energy Policy 2015, 80, 177–189. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Bouwmeester, M.C.; Oosterhaven, J. Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU. Energy Policy 2017, 106, 288–297. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Kustova, I. EU–Russia Energy Relations, EU Energy Integration, and Energy Security: The State of the Art and a Roadmap for Future Research. J. Contemp. Eur. Res. 2015, 11, 287–295. [Google Scholar]
- Romanova, T. Is Russian Energy Policy towards the EU Only about Geopolitics? The Case of the Third Liberalisation Package. Geopolitics 2016, 21, 857–879. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Casier, T. The Rise of Energy to the Top of the EU-Russia Agenda: From Interdependence to Dependence? Geopolitics 2011, 16, 536–552. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Valkila, N.; Saari, A. Experts’ view on Finland’s energy policy. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2013, 17, 283–290. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ruostetsaari, I. Stealth democracy, elitism, and citizenship in Finnish energy policy. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2017, 34, 93–103. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Teräväinen, T.; Lehtonen, M.; Martiskainen, M. Climate change, energy security, and risk—Debating nuclear new build in Finland, France and the UK. Energy Policy 2011, 39, 3434–3442. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ylönen, M.; Litmanen, T.; Kojo, M.; Lindell, P. The (de)politicisation of nuclear power: The Finnish discussion after Fukushima. Public Underst. Sci. 2015, 26, 260–274. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Vehkalahti, P. Pohjoisen Ydinmylly: Julkinen Keskustelu Fennovoiman Ydinvoimalasta 2007–2013 (‘The Northern Nuclear Mill: Public Debate on the Fennovoima Power Plant 2007–2013’); Acta Electronica Universitatis Tamperensis 1819; Suomen Yliopistopaino Oy—Juvenes Print: Tampere, Finland, 2017; ISBN 978-952-03-0541-3. [Google Scholar]
- Laihonen, M. Political Foreplay for Nuclear New Build: Defining good at the Intersection of Politics, Economy and Technology; Aalto University Publication Series, Doctoral Dissertations 247/2016; Unigrafia Oy: Helsinki, Finland, 2016; ISBN 978-952-60-7156-5. [Google Scholar]
- Aalto, P.; Nyyssönen, H.; Kojo, M.; Pal, P. Russian nuclear energy diplomacy in Finland and Hungary. Eurasian Geogr. Econ. 2017, 7216, 1–32. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Huttunen, S. Stakeholder frames in the making of forest bioenergy legislation in Finland. Geoforum 2014, 53, 63–73. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kivimaa, P.; Mickwitz, P. Public policy as a part of transforming energy systems: Framing bioenergy in Finnish energy policy. Promot. Transform. Sustain. Consum. Prod. Resour. Energy Intensive Econ. Case Finl. 2011, 19, 1812–1821. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lempinen, H. Jos se ei riitä, siitä riidellään Energiaturvallisuuden kieli ja kuvakieli turve-energian markkina-argumentteina (‘“If there’s a scarcity, it will be fought over”—Language of energy security and imagery of peat energy as market arguments’). Alue Ja Ymp. 2017, 42, 53–63. [Google Scholar]
- Karhunen, A.; Laihanen, M.; Ranta, T. Supply security for domestic fuels at Finnish combined heat and power plants. Biomass Bioenergy 2015, 77, 45–52. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Helin, K.; Jääskeläinen, J.; Syri, S. Energy Security Impacts of Decreasing CHP Capacity in Finland. In Proceedings of the IEEE Xplore 15th International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lodz, Poland, 27–29 June 2018. [Google Scholar]
- Zakeri, B.; Syri, S.; Rinne, S. Higher renewable energy integration into the existing energy system of Finland—Is there any maximum limit? Sustain. Dev. Energy Water Environ. Syst. 2015, 92 Pt 3, 244–259. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aslani, A.; Helo, P.; Naaranoja, M. Role of renewable energy policies in energy dependency in Finland: System dynamics approach. Appl. Energy 2014, 113, 758–765. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Saastamoinen, A.; Kuosmanen, T. Quality frontier of electricity distribution: Supply security, best practices, and underground cabling in Finland. Energy Mark. 2016, 53, 281–292. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pilpola, S.; Lund, P.D. Effect of major policy disruptions in energy system transition: Case Finland. Energy Policy 2018, 116, 323–336. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ochoa, C.; Gore, O. The Finnish power market: Are imports from Russia low-cost? Energy Policy 2015, 80, 122–132. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kuisma, M. Kylmä Sota, Kuuma Öljy: Neste, Suomi ja Kaksi Eurooppaa 1948-1979 (‘Cold War, Hot Oil: Neste, Finland and Two Europes 1948-1979’); WSOY: Porvoo, Finland, 1997; ISBN 978-951-0-20811-3. [Google Scholar]
- Michelsen, K.-E.; Särkikoski, T. Suomalainen Ydinvoimalaitos (‘Finnish Nuclear Power Plant’); Edita: Helsinki, Finland, 2005; ISBN 978-951-37-4530-1. [Google Scholar]
- Särkikoski, T. Rauhan Atomi, Sodan Koodi: Suomalaisen Atomivoimaratkaisun Teknopolitiikka 1955-1970 (‘Atom of Peace, Code of War: Technopolitics of the Finnish Nuclear Power Solution 1955-1970’); Historical Studies from the University of Helsinki XXV; Unigrafia: Helsinki, Finland, 2011; ISBN 978-952-10-7287-1. [Google Scholar]
- Aalto, P.; Korkmaz Temel, D. European Energy Security: Natural Gas and the Integration Process: European energy security. JCMS J. Common Mark. Stud. 2014, 52, 758–774. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bridge, G. Geographies of peak oil: The other carbon problem. Geoforum 2010, 41, 523–530. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Jewell, J.; Cherp, A.; Riahi, K. Energy security under de-carbonization scenarios: An assessment framework and evaluation under different technology and policy choices. Energy Policy 2014, 65, 743–760. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Scholten, D.; Bosman, R. The geopolitics of renewables; exploring the political implications of renewable energy systems. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 2016, 103, 273–283. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Aalto, P.; Dusseault, D.; Kennedy, M.D.; Kivinen, M. Russia’ s energy relations in Europe and the Far East: Towards a social structurationist approach to energy policy formation. J. Int. Relat. Dev. 2014, 17, 1–29. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chester, L. Conceptualising energy security and making explicit its polysemic nature. Energy Policy 2010, 38, 887–895. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cherp, A.; Jewell, J. The three perspectives on energy security: Intellectual history, disciplinary roots and the potential for integration. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 2011, 3, 202–212. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cherp, A.; Jewell, J. The concept of energy security: Beyond the four as. Energy Policy 2014, 75, 415–421. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fernández Carril, L.; García Arrazola, R.; Rubio, E.J. Discursive Overlap and Conflictive Fragmentation of Risk and Security in the Geopolitics of Energy. Sustainability 2013, 5, 1095–1113. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Brown, M.A.; Sovacool, B.K. Climate Change and Global Energy Security: Technology and Policy Options; MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2011; ISBN 978-0-262-51631-0. [Google Scholar]
- Yergin, D. Ensuring Energy Security. Foreign Aff. 2006, 85, 69–82. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mayer, M.; Schouten, P. Energy Security and Climate Security under Conditions of the Anthropocene. In Energy Security in the Era of Climate Change; Anceschi, L., Symons, J., Eds.; Palgrave Macmillan: London, UK, 2012; ISBN 978-0-230-27987-2. [Google Scholar]
- Leung, G.C.K.; Cherp, A.; Jewell, J.; Wei, Y.M. Securitization of energy supply chains in China. Appl. Energy 2014, 123, 316–326. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Blumer, Y.B.; Moser, C.; Patt, A.; Seidl, R. The precarious consensus on the importance of energy security: Contrasting views between Swiss energy users and experts. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2015, 52, 927–936. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Leung, G.C.K. China’s energy security: Perception and reality. Energy Policy 2011, 39, 1330–1337. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sovacool, B.K. Differing cultures of energy security: An international comparison of public perceptions. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2016, 55, 811–822. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Valkenburg, G.; Gracceva, F. Towards Governance of Energy Security. Low-Carbon Energy Secur. Eur. Perspect. 2016, 207–229. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Geels, F.W. Regime Resistance against Low-Carbon Transitions: Introducing Politics and Power into the Multi-Level Perspective. Theory Cult. Soc. 2014, 31, 21–40. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Øverland, I.; Orttung, R.W. A limited toolbox: Explaining the constraints on Russia’s foreign energy policy. J. Eurasian Stud. 2011, 2, 74–85. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Müller, M. Opening the black box of the organization: Socio-material practices of geopolitical ordering. Polit. Geogr. 2012, 31, 379–388. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Levy, D.L. Political Contestation in Global Production Networks. Acad. Manag. Rev. 2008, 33, 943–963. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Bridge, G.; Bradshaw, M. Making a Global Gas Market: Territoriality and Production Networks in Liquefied Natural Gas. Econ. Geogr. 2017, 93, 215–240. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Casier, T. Great Game or Great Confusion: The Geopolitical Understanding of EU-Russia Energy Relations. Geopolitics 2016, 21, 763–778. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mišík, M.; Prachárová, V. Before ‘Independence’ Arrived: Interdependence in Energy Relations between Lithuania and Russia. Geopolitics 2016, 21, 579–604. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Goldthau, A.; Sitter, N. A Liberal Actor in a Realist World: The European Union Regulatory State and the Global Political Economy of Energy; Oxford University Press: Oxford, UK, 2015; ISBN 978-0-19-871959-5. [Google Scholar]
- Smith Stegen, K. Deconstructing the “energy weapon”: Russia’s threat to Europe as case study. Energy Policy 2011, 39, 6505–6513. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tynkkynen, V.-P.; Pynnöniemi, K.; Höysniemi, S. Global Energy Transitions and Russia’s Energy Influence in Finland; Article Series of Government’s Analysis, Assessment and Research Activities; Finnish Government’s Analysis, Assessment and Research Activities: Helsinki, Finland, 2017; pp. 1–13.
- Högselius, P. Red Gas; Palgrave Macmillan US: New York, NY, USA, 2013; ISBN 978-1-137-29371-8. [Google Scholar]
- Wigell, M.; Vihma, A. Geopolitics versus geoeconomics: The case of Russia’s geostrategy and its effects on the EU. Int. Aff. 2016, 92, 605–627. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sharples, J.D. Russian approaches to energy security and climate change: Russian gas exports to the EU. Environ. Polit. 2013, 22, 683–700. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Bouzarovski, S.; Bradshaw, M.; Wochnik, A. Making territory through infrastructure: The governance of natural gas transit in Europe. Geoforum 2015, 64, 217–228. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Judge, A.; Maltby, T.; Sharples, J.D. Challenging Reductionism in Analyses of EU-Russia Energy Relations. Geopolitics 2016, 21, 751–762. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Kropatcheva, E. He who has the pipeline calls the tune Russia’s energy power against the background of the shale “revolutions”. Energy Policy 2014, 66, 1–10. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aligica, P.D. Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2005, 72, 815–824. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. National Energy and Climate Strategy for 2030. Available online: tem.fi/documents/1410877/2769658/Government+report+on+the+National+Energy+and+Climate+Strategy+for+2030/0bb2a7be-d3c2-4149-a4c2-78449ceb1976 (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Statistics Finland. Official Statistics of Finland (OSF): Energy supply and consumption. Available online: pxhopea2.stat.fi/sahkoiset_julkaisut/energia2017/html/engl0000.htm (accessed on 4 May 2018).
- Fingrid. Open Data. Available online: data.fingrid.fi/en/ (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Jääskeläinen, J.; Huhta, K. Trouble Ahead? An Interdisciplinary Analysis of Generation Adequacy in the Finnish Electricity Market. Int. Energy Law Rev. 2017, 8, 302–312. [Google Scholar]
- Jääskeläinen, J.; Veijalainen, N.; Syri, S.; Marttunen, M.; Zakeri, B. Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system. J. Environ. Manag. 2018, 217, 542–554. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Finnish Energy. Kaukolämpö 2016 (‘District heat 2016’). Available online: energia.fi/files/1560/DH_statistics_2016_pre_20170214.pptx (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Finnish Energy. Summary of Energy year 2016 in Finland. Available online: energia.fi/ajankohtaista_ja_materiaalipankki/materiaalipankki/energiavuosi_2016_sahko_sahkonkaytto_kaantyi_nousuun.html#material-view (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Finnish Energy Authority. Power Plant Register. Available online: www.energiavirasto.fi/web/energy-authority/power-plant-register (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Strategic Reserve—Energiavirasto. Available online: www.energiavirasto.fi/en/web/energy-authority/strategic-reserve (accessed on 10 August 2018).
- BP. Statistical Review of World Energy. Available online: www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf (accessed on 15 August 2018).
- World Nuclear Association. Supply of Uranium. Available online: www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/uranium-resources/supply-of-uranium.aspx (accessed on 23 August 2018).
- World Nuclear Association. Energy for the World—Why Uranium? Available online: www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/introduction/energy-for-the-world-why-uranium.aspx (accessed on 23 August 2018).
- Gore, O.; Vanadzina, E.; Viljainen, S. Linking the energy-only market and the energy-plus-capacity market. Util. Policy 2016, 38, 52–61. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ernst & Young. Power Market Russia. Available online: www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-power-market-russia-2018/$File/EY-power-market-russia-2018.pdf (accessed on 17 August 2018).
- U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Russia—International Analysis. Available online: www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.php?iso=RUS (accessed on 10 August 2018).
- Pynnöniemi, K. Russia’s National Security Strategy: Analysis of Conceptual Evolution. J. Slav. Mil. Stud. 2018, 31, 240–256. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bouzarovski, S.; Bassin, M. Energy and Identity: Imagining Russia as a Hydrocarbon Superpower. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 2011, 101, 783–794. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rutland, P. Petronation? Oil, gas, and national identity in Russia. Post-Sov. Aff. 2014, 31, 66–89. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Tynkkynen, V.-P.; Oxenstierna, S. (Eds.) Russian Energy and Security up to 2030; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2014; ISBN 978-0-415-63964-4. [Google Scholar]
- Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2030. Available online: www.energystrategy.ru/projects/docs/ES-2030_(Eng).pdf (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Proyekt Energostrategii Rossiyskoy Federacii na Period do 2035 goda (‘Energy Strategy of Russia up to 2035 project’). Available online: https://minenergo.gov.ru/node/1920 (accessed on 24 August 2017).
- Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation. Prognoz Nauchno-Tehnologicheskogo Razvitiya Toplivo-Energeticheskogo Kompleksa Rossii do 2035 Goda (‘Forecast of Scientific and Technological Development of Russian Heat and Power Sector for the Period up to 2035’). Available online: https://minenergo.gov.ru/node/6365 (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Gromov, A.; Kurichev, N. The Energy Strategy of Russia for the Period up to 2030: Risks and Opportunities. In Russian Energy and Security up to 2030; Oxenstierna, S., Tynkkynen, V.-P., Eds.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2014; ISBN 978-0-415-63964-4. [Google Scholar]
- Oxenstierna, S. Nuclear power in Russia’s energy policies. In Russian Energy and Security up to 2030; Oxenstierna, S., Tynkkynen, V.-P., Eds.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2014; ISBN 978-0-415-63964-4. [Google Scholar]
- Thomas, S. Russia’s Nuclear Export Programme. Energy Policy 2018, 121, 236–247. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kapustin, N.O.; Grushevenko, D.A. Exploring the implications of Russian Energy Strategy project for oil refining sector. Energy Policy 2018, 117, 198–207. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Pöyry Management Consulting. Energia, Huoltovarmuus ja Geopoliittiset Siirtymät (‘Energy, Security of Supply and Geopolitical Shifts’). Available online: tietokayttoon.fi/documents/10616/3866814/79_P%C3%B6yry_AI_energia_huoltovarmuus+ja+geopoliittiset+siirtym%C3%A4t_loppuraportti_151217_final.pdf/789a785e-18d9-4491-92e1-cd8524865bfd?version=1.0 (accessed on 21 August 2018).
- Salonen, H. Public justification analysis of Russian renewable energy strategies. Polar Geogr. 2018, 41, 75–86. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Smeets, N. The Green Menace: Unraveling Russia’s elite discourse on enabling and constraining factors of renewable energy policies. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2018, 40, 244–256. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Khrushcheva, O.; Maltby, T. The Future of EU-Russia Energy Relations in the Context of Decarbonisation. Geopolitics 2016, 21, 799–830. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Abramova, A.; Garanina, O. Russian MNEs Under Sanctions: Challenges for Upgrading in GVCs (Cases of Energy and IT Industries). J. East-West Bus. 2018, 0, 1–21. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aalto, P.; Forsberg, T. The structuration of Russia’s geo-economy under economic sanctions. Asia Eur. J. 2016, 14, 221–237. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Belyi, A.V. Western Sanctions on Russian Hydrocarbons: Twofold Effects. Oil Gas Energy Law Intell. 2018, 16, 1–7. [Google Scholar]
- Stephenson, S.R.; Agnew, J.A. The work of networks: Embedding firms, transport, and the state in the Russian Arctic oil and gas sector. Environ. Plan. A 2016, 48, 558–576. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tynkkynen, V.-P. Russian bioenergy and the EU’s renewable energy goals: Perspectives of security. In Russian Energy and Security up to 2030; Oxenstierna, S., Tynkkynen, V.-P., Eds.; Routledge: Abingdon, UK, 2014. [Google Scholar]
- President of Russia. Press Statements and Answers to Journalists’ Questions Following Russian-Finnish Talks. Available online: www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51551 (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- President of Russia. Joint News Conference with President of Finland Sauli Niinisto. Available online: www.en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51551 (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Tynkkynen, V.-P. Russia’s Nuclear Power and Finland’s Foreign Policy. Russ. Anal. Dig. 2016, 11, 2–5. [Google Scholar]
- Natural Resources Institute Finland. Statistics Database. Available online: statdb.luke.fi/PXWeb/pxweb/fi/LUKE/?rxid=2df1507e-c55e-4aad-85a4-8f32ea957654 (accessed on 15 August 2018).
- Fingrid. Cross-border Connections between Russia and Finland. Available online: www.fingrid.fi/en/services/power-transmission/400-kv-cross-border-connections-between-russia-and-finland/ (accessed on 10 August 2018).
- ÅF-Consult Ltd. Selvitys Keinoista Sähkötehon Riittävyyden Varmistamiseksi Kulutushuipuissa (‘A Report on Measures to Ensure Generation Adequacy during Demand Peaks’). Available online: www.energiavirasto.fi/documents/10191/0/Selvitys+keinoista+s%C3%A4hk%C3%B6tehon+riitt%C3%A4vyys+varmistamiseksi+kulutushuipuissa+-Raportti+%2800000004%29.pdf/d3ff1994-7f96-48ab-9123-b2a327635dbe (accessed on 20 September 2017).
- Kuisma, M. Valtion Yhtiöt: Nousu ja tuho (‘State Companies: Rise and fall’); Kustannusosakeyhtiö Siltala: Helsinki, Finland, 2016; ISBN 978-952-234-386-4. [Google Scholar]
- Saastamoinen, J. Brezhnevin Katoksessa Ja Muita Juttuja Nesteestä (‘Under the Roof of Brezhnev and Other Stories of Neste’); WSOY: Helsinki, Finland, 2007; ISBN 978-951-0-32997-9. [Google Scholar]
- Neste. Nesteen Verojalanjälki (‘Tax Footprint of Neste’). Available online: www.neste.com/fi/konserni/vastuullisuus/yhteiskunta/taloudellinen-vastuu/nesteen-verojalanj%C3%A4lki (accessed on 30 August 2018).
- Popova, O.; Shuster, S. UPDATE 2-Fortum to Pay Record Price, $3 bln for TGK-10. Available online: www.reuters.com/article/fortum-tgk10/update-2-fortum-to-pay-record-price-3-bln-for-tgk-10-idUSL2815507620080228 (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Rusnano. New Investment Funds. Available online: www.en.rusnano.com/portfolio/investment-funds/wdif (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Simon, F. Rosatom Talks up Wind, Solar Power in Quest for ‘Diversified Portfolio’. Available online: www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/rosatom-talks-up-wind-solar-power-in-quest-for-diversified-portfolio/ (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Fortum. Fortum Closes Public Takeover Offer on Uniper. Available online: www.fortum.com/media/2018/06/fortum-closes-public-takeover-offer-uniper (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Vihma, A.; Wigell, M. Unclear and present danger: Russia’s geoeconomics and the Nord Stream II pipeline. Glob. Aff. 2016, 2, 377–388. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Delyagin, M. Kogda Gosti Stanovyatsya Xozyaevami: Zashita Zhiznenno Vazhnyh Dlya Rossii Otrasley Ekonomiki Dolzhna Byt Absolyutnoy (‘When Guests Become Hosts: Protection of Vital Economic Sectors for Russia Must Be Absolute’). Available online: www.rg.ru/2018/04/11/zashchita-zhiznenno-vazhnyh-dlia-rossii-otraslej-ekonomiki-dolzhna-byt-absoliutnoj.html (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Sutinen, T.; Hakala, P. Fortumista Tuli Valtapelin Väline—Kokosimme Kahdeksan Keskeistä Kysymystä Venäjän Virallisen Lehden Virheellisistä Kirjoituksista, Jotka Saivat Energiayhtiön Ryhtymään Oikeustoimiin (‘Fortum Became an Object of Power Games—We Gathered Eight Key Issues of Incorrect Writing of Russian Offical Newspaper That Lead Fortum to Legal Actions’). Available online: www.hs.fi/talous/art-2000005643454.html (accessed on 31 August 2018).
- Manskiy, S. Finskaya Kompaniya Investirovala v Rossii 4,5 Milliarda Evro (‘Finnish Company Invested on Russia Worth of 4,5 Billion Euros’). Available online: www.rg.ru/2018/04/22/finskaia-kompaniia-investirovala-v-rossii-45-milliarda-evro.html (accessed on 28 August 2018).
- Litmanen, T.; Kari, M.; Kojo, M.; Solomon, B.D. Is there a Nordic model of final disposal of spent nuclear fuel? Governance insights from Finland and Sweden. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2017, 25, 19–30. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kojo, M.; Litmanen, T. (Eds.) The Renewal of Nuclear Power in Finland; Palgrave Macmillan: London, UK, 2009; ISBN 978-1-349-36588-3. [Google Scholar]
- Foy, H. Rosatom Powers through Nuclear Industry Woes. Available online: www.ft.com/content/774358b4-5a4a-11e7-9bc8-8055f264aa8b (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Mörttinen, M.; Nurmi, L. Sauli Niinistö—Mäntyniemen herra (‘Sauli Niinistö—Master of Mäntyniemi’); Into Kustannus Oy: Helsinki, Finland, 2018; ISBN 978-952-264-942-3. [Google Scholar]
- Loikkanen, J. Rehn: Fennovoiman Ydinvoimalahankkeen Kaatuminen Oli Hyvin Lähellä (‘Rehn: Cancelling Fennovoima Nuclear Power Plant Project Was Very Close’). Available online: https://www.mtv.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/artikkeli/rehn-fennovoiman-ydinvoimalahankkeen-kaatuminen-oli-hyvin-lahella/5856860#gs.x9ffQjo (accessed on 13 September 2018).
- Kyytsönen, J. Fennovoiman Hinta Noussut jo 6,5–7 Miljardiin Euroon (‘The Costs of Fennovoima Increased Already up to 6,5-7 Billion Euros’). Available online: www.maaseuduntulevaisuus.fi/talous/artikkeli-1.225844 (accessed on 26 February 2018).
- Ministry of Economic Affairs and Employment. Energia- ja Ilmastotiekartta 2050 (‘Energy and Climate Roadmap 2050’). Available online: tem.fi/documents/1410877/2628105/Energia-+ja+ilmastotiekartta+2050.pdf/1584025f-c5c7-456c-a912-aba0ee3e5052 (accessed on 21 August 2018).
- Riahi, K.; Rao, S.; Krey, V.; Cho, C.; Chirkov, V.; Fischer, G.; Kindermann, G.; Nakicenovic, N.; Rafaj, P. RCP 8.5—A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions. Clim. Chang. 2011, 109, 33. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Knapp, V.; Pevec, D. Promises and limitations of nuclear fission energy in combating climate change. Energy Policy 2018, 120, 94–99. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lehtveer, M.; Hedenus, F. How much can nuclear power reduce climate mitigation cost? – Critical parameters and sensitivity. Energy Strategy Rev. 2015, 6, 12–19. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Olkkonen, V.; Rinne, S.; Hast, A.; Syri, S. Benefits of DSM measures in the future Finnish energy system. Energy 2017, 137, 729–738. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kyriakopoulos, G.L.; Arabatzis, G. Electrical energy storage systems in electricity generation: Energy policies, innovative technologies, and regulatory regimes. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 2016, 56, 1044–1067. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Astiaso Garcia, D.; Barbanera, F.; Cumo, F.; Di Matteo, U.; Nastasi, B. Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe. Energies 2016, 9, 963. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ikäheimo, J. Power-to-gas plants in a future Nordic district heating system. In Proceedings of the 11th International Renewable Energy Storage Conference (IRES 2017), Düsseldorf, Germany, 14–16 March 2017; Volume 135, pp. 172–182. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Simon, F. France to Push for EU Carbon Price Floor and Border Tariff. Available online: www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/france-to-push-for-eu-carbon-price-floor-and-border-tariff/ (accessed on 24 August 2018).
- Van Sluisveld, M.A.E.; Harmsen, M.J.H.M.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Bosetti, V.; Wilson, C.; van der Zwaan, B. Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios to expert projections. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2018, 50, 201–211. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Luderer, G.; Vrontisi, Z.; Bertram, C.; Edelenbosch, O.Y.; Pietzcker, R.C.; Rogelj, J.; De Boer, H.S.; Drouet, L.; Emmerling, J.; Fricko, O.; et al. Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2018, 8, 626–633. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Schot, J.; Kanger, L. Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality. Res. Policy 2018, 47, 1045–1059. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Riahi, K.; Kriegler, E.; Johnson, N.; Bertram, C.; den Elzen, M.; Eom, J.; Schaeffer, M.; Edmonds, J.; Isaac, M.; Krey, V.; et al. Locked into Copenhagen pledges—Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals. Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 2015, 90, 8–23. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef][Green Version]
- Raftery, A.E.; Zimmer, A.; Frierson, D.M.W.; Startz, R.; Liu, P. Less than 2 °C warming by 2100 unlikely. Nat. Clim. Chang. 2017, 7, 637. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- McCollum, D.L.; Zhou, W.; Bertram, C.; de Boer, H.-S.; Bosetti, V.; Busch, S.; Després, J.; Drouet, L.; Emmerling, J.; Fay, M.; et al. Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals. Nat. Energy 2018, 3, 589–599. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wu, X.F.; Chen, G.Q. Global primary energy use associated with production, consumption and international trade. Energy Policy 2017, 111, 85–94. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Energy Source | Consumption (TWh/a) | Share | Reserves (TWh) | Global Share | Production (TWh/a) | Global Share | Net Export (TWh/a) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Natural gas | 4201.9 | 52.4% | ~348,000 | 18.0% | 5900 | 16.6% | 2070 4 |
Oil | 1773.6 | 22.1% | ~169,000 | 6.3% | 6470 | 12.7% | 4770 5 |
Coal | 1037.4 | 12.9% | ~892,000 2 | 15.5% | 2260 | 5.3% | 1220 6 |
Uranium | 517.5 | 6.5% | ~70,000 3 | 8.9% | - | - | - |
Hydropower | 486.1 | 6.1% | - | - | - | - | - |
Other 1 | 3.5 | 0.0% | - | - | - | - | - |
Total | 8020.0 | 100% | - | - | - | - | - |
Energy Source | Consumption (TWh/a) | Share | From Russia (TWh/a) | Share of Total | Share of Imports |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Biomass | 99.5 1 | 26.3% | 10.9 2 | 11.0% | 91.5% |
Oil | 88.1 | 23.3% | 67.4 3 | 76.5% 4 | 76.5% |
Uranium | 67.5 | 17.9% | 26.6 5 | 39.4% | 39.4% |
Coal and coke | 35.3 | 9.3% | 21.6 | 61.2% | 61.2% |
Natural gas | 20.3 | 5.4% | 20.3 | 100% | 100% |
Net electricity import | 19.0 | 5.0% | 5.9 | 30.9% | 30.9% |
Hydropower | 15.6 | 4.1% | - | - | - |
Peat | 15.6 | 4.1% | 0.1 | 0.5% | 52.5% |
Recycled and waste energy | 8.1 | 2.1% | - | - | - |
Heat pumps | 5.9 | 1.6% | - | - | - |
Wind and solar | 3.1 | 0.8% | - | - | - |
Other | 0.3 | 0.1% | - | - | - |
Total | 378.2 | 100% | 152.7 | 40.4% | 63.0% |
Energy Source (TWh/a) | 2016 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil | 67.4 | 65.0 | 50.0 | 33.7 | 28.0 | 24.0 |
Uranium | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 25.6 1 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
Coal and coke | 21.6 | 20.0 | 16.0 | 8.0 2 | 6.0 | 3.0 |
Natural gas | 20.3 | 17.0 3 | 14.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
Electricity 1 | 5.9 | 3.0 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Total | 141.8 | 131.6 | 107.6 | 78.3 | 70.6 | 63.6 |
Energy Source [TWh/a] | 2016 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil | 67.4 | 62.0 | 47.0 | 30.0 | 24.0 | 20.0 |
Uranium | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 25.6 1 | 25.6 | 25.6 |
Coal and coke | 21.6 | 20.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 2 | 4.0 | 3.0 |
Natural gas | 20.3 | 17.0 3 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 |
Electricity 1 | 5.9 | 3.0 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
Total | 141.8 | 128.6 | 99.6 | 70.6 | 61.6 | 55.6 |
Energy Source [TWh/a] | 2016 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oil | 67.4 | 66.0 | 65.0 | 64.0 | 63.0 | 62.0 |
Uranium | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 28.6 1 | 31.6 | 34.6 |
Coal and coke | 21.6 | 20.0 | 18.0 | 16.0 2 | 14.0 | 13.0 |
Natural gas | 20.3 | 17.0 3 | 15.0 | 15.5 | 16.0 | 16.5 |
Electricity 1 | 5.9 | 4.0 4 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Total | 141.8 | 133.6 | 128.6 | 128.1 | 128.6 | 130.1 |
© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Jääskeläinen, J.J.; Höysniemi, S.; Syri, S.; Tynkkynen, V.-P. Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat? Sustainability 2018, 10, 3445. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103445
Jääskeläinen JJ, Höysniemi S, Syri S, Tynkkynen V-P. Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat? Sustainability. 2018; 10(10):3445. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103445
Chicago/Turabian StyleJääskeläinen, Jaakko J., Sakari Höysniemi, Sanna Syri, and Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen. 2018. "Finland’s Dependence on Russian Energy—Mutually Beneficial Trade Relations or an Energy Security Threat?" Sustainability 10, no. 10: 3445. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103445