Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Design and Data Collection
2.2. Eligibility Criteria
2.3. Laboratory Diagnosis and Serotyping
2.4. Climatic Data
2.5. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Dengue Frequency and Serotype Distribution
3.2. Climatic Conditions and Dengue Cases
3.3. Dengue Prediction Models
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
| DENV | dengue virus |
| DWS | dengue with warning signs |
| HIS | Hydrological Information System |
| LAVIE-CIBO | Laboratorio de Apoyo a la Vigilancia e Investigación Epidemiológica del Centro de Investigación Biomédica de Occidente |
| NSD | non-severe dengue |
| RT-qPCR | quantitative real-time PCR |
| SD | severe dengue |
| VBD | vector-borne disease |
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| Year | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total | (%) | |
| States in the northwestern area of the country | |||||||||||
| Colima | 0 | 1 | 1 | 76 | 29 | 45 | 296 | 2279 | 5 | 2732 | (9.4) |
| Guanajuato | 0 | 2 | 49 | 165 | 2 | 0 | 375 | 1438 | 3 | 2034 | (7.0) |
| Jalisco | 196 | 532 | 3337 | 1194 | 21 | 17 | 335 | 7933 | 70 | 13,635 | (47.0) |
| Michoacán | 0 | 0 | 285 | 842 | 59 | 25 | 314 | 2574 | 14 | 4113 | (14.2) |
| Nayarit | 7 | 25 | 285 | 398 | 23 | 5 | 97 | 2743 | 10 | 3593 | (12.4) |
| Sinaloa | 0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 16 | 252 | 3 | 194 | 0 | 499 | (1.7) |
| Sonora | 0 | 0 | 41 | 249 | 816 | 214 | 39 | 1011 | 10 | 2380 | (8.2) |
| Total | 203 | 560 | 4030 | 2926 | 966 | 558 | 1459 | 18,172 | 112 | 28,986 | (100) |
| DENV * serotype | |||||||||||
| D1 | 139 | 349 | 854 | 417 | 82 | 45 | 357 | 531 | 0 | 2774 | (9.6) |
| D2 | 3 | 189 | 2917 | 2233 | 745 | 425 | 298 | 541 | 0 | 7351 | (25.4) |
| D3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 48 | 58 | 520 | 12,962 | 48 | 13,638 | (47.1) |
| D4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 0 | 33 | (0.1) |
| Not determined | 61 | 22 | 258 | 275 | 91 | 29 | 281 | 4109 | 64 | 5190 | (17.8) |
| Total | 203 | 560 | 4030 | 2926 | 966 | 558 | 1459 | 18,172 | 112 | 28,986 | (100) |
| Clinical classification | |||||||||||
| Non-severe dengue | 0 | 432 | 2739 | 2183 | 729 | 286 | 1027 | 11,755 | 54 | 19,205 | (66.3) |
| Dengue with warning signs | 0 | 102 | 1013 | 676 | 214 | 256 | 416 | 6151 | 57 | 8885 | (30.7) |
| Severe dengue | 0 | 10 | 263 | 65 | 22 | 16 | 14 | 265 | 1 | 656 | (2.3) |
| Not clinically classified | 203 | 16 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 240 | (0.8) |
| Total | 203 | 560 | 4030 | 2926 | 966 | 558 | 1459 | 18,172 | 112 | 28,986 | (100) |
| Colima | Guanajuato | Jalisco | Michoacán | Nayarit | Sinaloa | Sonora | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENV * serotype | ||||||||
| D1 | 169 | 306 | 1319 | 619 | 176 | 29 | 156 | 2774 |
| D2 | 203 | 99 | 4036 | 1226 | 563 | 217 | 1007 | 7351 |
| D3 | 1676 | 1266 | 6240 | 1438 | 2076 | 201 | 741 | 13,638 |
| D4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 33 |
| Not determined | 684 | 362 | 2030 | 820 | 769 | 52 | 473 | 5190 |
| Total | 2732 | 2034 | 13,635 | 4113 | 3593 | 499 | 2380 | 28,986 |
| Patient gender | ||||||||
| Male | 1308 | 996 | 6070 | 1891 | 1619 | 198 | 1114 | 13,196 |
| Female | 1424 | 1038 | 7565 | 2222 | 1974 | 301 | 1266 | 15,790 |
| Gender ratio (M:F) | 1:1.09 | 1:1.04 | 1:1.25 | 1:1.18 | 1:1.22 | 1:1.52 | 1:1.14 | 1:1.20 |
| Patient type | ||||||||
| Outpatient | 1764 | 1681 | 10,003 | 3196 | 2152 | 299 | 1197 | 20,292 |
| Hospitalized | 965 | 351 | 3593 | 914 | 1438 | 200 | 1178 | 8639 |
| Death | 3 | 2 | 39 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 55 |
| Clinical classification | ||||||||
| Non-severe dengue | 1721 | 1505 | 9311 | 3280 | 1897 | 272 | 1219 | 19,205 |
| Dengue with warning signs | 977 | 501 | 3711 | 805 | 1634 | 218 | 1039 | 8885 |
| Severe dengue | 33 | 28 | 392 | 24 | 49 | 9 | 121 | 656 |
| Not clinically classified | 1 | 0 | 221 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 240 |
| Clinical Classification | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Severe Dengue | Dengue with Warning Signs | Severe Dengue | Unknown | |
| D1 | 2102 (10.9) | 462 (5.2) | 55 (8.4) | 155 (64.6) |
| D2 | 5187 (27.0) | 1863 (21.0) | 285 (43.4) | 16 (6.7) |
| D3 | 9057 (47.2) | 4386(49.4) | 195 (29.7) | 0 (0.0) |
| D4 | 28 (0.1) | 4 (0.0) | 1 (0.2) | 0 (0.0) |
| Not determined | 2831 (14.8) | 2170 (24.4) | 120 (18.3) | 69 (28.7) |
| Total | 19,205 | 8885 | 656 | 240 |
| Dependent Variable: Number of Dengue Cases | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colima | Guanajuato | Jalisco | Michoacán | Nayarit | Sinaloa | Sonora | |
| Variable | |||||||
| Week α | 0.126 | 0.300 | 1.410 | 0.388 | 0.227 | 0.466 | 0.096 |
| Precipitation (mm) | -- * | −0.907 | −5.373 | -- * | -- * | −0.603 | -- * |
| Minimum Temperature (°C) | 3.437 | 2.358 | 17.553 | 2.892 | 3.451 | -- * | -- * |
| Mean Temperature (°C) | −4.246 | −2.407 | −9.160 | −3.359 | −2.718 | −0.516 | −0.080 |
| Maximum Temperature (°C) | 1.958 | -- * | −6.570 | 1.018 | -- * | -- * | -- * |
| Constant | −22.871 | 14.459 | 143.080 | −0.456 | 4.061 | 7.409 | 0.579 |
| R2 Adjusted | 0.226 | 0.226 | 0.217 | 0.256 | 0.111 | 0.151 | 0.049 |
| p | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
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González-Enríquez, G.V.; Torres-Mendoza, B.M.; Escoto-Delgadillo, M.; Chavarria-Avila, E.; Esparza-Avila, S.K.; Santacruz-Tinoco, C.E.; Martínez-Miguel, B.; Arenas-Sevilla, M.F.D.; Javalera Castro, D.I. Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue. Infect. Dis. Rep. 2026, 18, 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18030047
González-Enríquez GV, Torres-Mendoza BM, Escoto-Delgadillo M, Chavarria-Avila E, Esparza-Avila SK, Santacruz-Tinoco CE, Martínez-Miguel B, Arenas-Sevilla MFD, Javalera Castro DI. Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue. Infectious Disease Reports. 2026; 18(3):47. https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18030047
Chicago/Turabian StyleGonzález-Enríquez, Gracia Viviana, Blanca Miriam Torres-Mendoza, Martha Escoto-Delgadillo, Efrain Chavarria-Avila, Sagrario Karina Esparza-Avila, Clara Esperanza Santacruz-Tinoco, Bernardo Martínez-Miguel, Magally Farah Diva Arenas-Sevilla, and David Israel Javalera Castro. 2026. "Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue" Infectious Disease Reports 18, no. 3: 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18030047
APA StyleGonzález-Enríquez, G. V., Torres-Mendoza, B. M., Escoto-Delgadillo, M., Chavarria-Avila, E., Esparza-Avila, S. K., Santacruz-Tinoco, C. E., Martínez-Miguel, B., Arenas-Sevilla, M. F. D., & Javalera Castro, D. I. (2026). Association of Climatic Factors with Frequency of Dengue. Infectious Disease Reports, 18(3), 47. https://doi.org/10.3390/idr18030047

