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World Electric Vehicle Journal is published by MDPI from Volume 9 issue 1 (2018). Articles in this Issue were published by The World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) and its member the European Association for e-Mobility (AVERE), the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), and the Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP). They are hosted by MDPI on mdpi.com as a courtesy and upon agreement with AVERE.
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Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies

Institute of Vehicle Concepts, German Aerospace Center (DLR), Stuttgart, Germany
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World Electr. Veh. J. 2013, 6(4), 935-944; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj6040935
Published: 27 December 2013
PDF [725 KB, uploaded 18 May 2018]

Abstract

The paper introduces an innovative utility-based approach to model customer choice for alternative powertrain technologies within a dynamic scenario tool. The study covers a wide portfolio of different powertrain concepts from conventional combustion engines to advanced hybrid and electric cars. The assessment of their economic and technical attributes builds on a large set of vehicle simulation data and detailed cost models. In contrast to previous cost-based studies the applied methodology maps the observed diversity of user characteristics more realistically. Therefore, the driving behaviour and preferences of car buyers are analysed empirically based on major representative surveys and the resulting distribution functions are integrated in the model. After testing and validation with historic data the model is applied to the German vehicle market and a potential scenario for the prospective composition of the new passenger car fleet by 2030 is presented. The scenario simulation shows that a significant reduction of CO2 emissions is feasible especially by the introduction of plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles. However, the growing technical complexity and the additional effort for efficiency improvements also result in increasing total costs of ownership for the customer.
Keywords: Market potential; TCO; purchase and user behavior; hybrid and battery electric vehicles Market potential; TCO; purchase and user behavior; hybrid and battery electric vehicles
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Redelbach, M.; Sparka, M.; Schmid, S.; Friedrich, H.E. Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies. World Electr. Veh. J. 2013, 6, 935-944.

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