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World Electric Vehicle Journal is published by MDPI from Volume 9 issue 1 (2018). Articles in this Issue were published by The World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) and its member the European Association for e-Mobility (AVERE), the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), and the Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP). They are hosted by MDPI on mdpi.com as a courtesy and upon agreement with AVERE.
Open AccessArticle

Foresight Scenario Analysis of Motor System of Electric Vehicle

1
Department of Information Management, National Central University, No.300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
2
Graduate School of Design Doctoral Program, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, No.123 University Road, Section 3, Douliou, Yunlin 64002, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
3
Department of Industrial Design, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology, No.123 University Road, Section 3, Douliou, Yunlin 64002, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
4
Department of Business Administration, National Central University, No.300, Jhongda Rd., Jhongli City, Taoyuan County 32001, Taiwan (R.O.C.)
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
World Electr. Veh. J. 2012, 5(4), 975-981; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj5040975
Published: 28 December 2012
PDF [314 KB, uploaded 18 May 2018]

Abstract

In order to describe the trend of motor system development of electric vehicle and to figure out the factors that would affect the external drives and the internal resources, the thesis uses scenario analysis method to be the basic framework, adding modified Delphi method to clarify time transition into five categories: changeless, changeable, disappeared, uncertain states and newborn. More precisely, the five factors is used to construct “Scenario Analysis of Markov Modified Delphi Method”. The thesis focuses on motor system to do the Foresight analysis, using the transition concept of Markov Chain to clarify the key factors of uncertain states into motor system: brushless DC (BLDC) motor, surface permanent magnet synchronous motor and Switched Reluctance In-Wheel Motor. Moreover, the changeless concept of Markov Chain is used to be background, adding the key factors of changeable and uncertain states to clarify seven kinds of scenario portfolio: basic scenario, scenario assumption I, scenario assumption II, future scenario, breakthrough scenario I, breakthrough scenario II and challenge scenario. It could make the government, industries and related departments realize the development trend of key components about electric vehicle by the scenario descriptions. It can increase their willingness to invest in the related researches to achieve future image, also shape the usable engineering technique and integrated system concepts of electric vehicles in 2020 for public.
Keywords: EV (electric vehicle); motor; market EV (electric vehicle); motor; market
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Shiue, Y.-C.; Chen, P.-J.; Lee, C.-F.; Yu, C.-C.; Chen, C.-W. Foresight Scenario Analysis of Motor System of Electric Vehicle. World Electr. Veh. J. 2012, 5, 975-981.

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