Abstract
In order to describe the trend of motor system development of electric vehicle and to figure out the factors that would affect the external drives and the internal resources, the thesis uses scenario analysis method to be the basic framework, adding modified Delphi method to clarify time transition into five categories: changeless, changeable, disappeared, uncertain states and newborn. More precisely, the five factors is used to construct “Scenario Analysis of Markov Modified Delphi Method”. The thesis focuses on motor system to do the Foresight analysis, using the transition concept of Markov Chain to clarify the key factors of uncertain states into motor system: brushless DC (BLDC) motor, surface permanent magnet synchronous motor and Switched Reluctance In-Wheel Motor. Moreover, the changeless concept of Markov Chain is used to be background, adding the key factors of changeable and uncertain states to clarify seven kinds of scenario portfolio: basic scenario, scenario assumption I, scenario assumption II, future scenario, breakthrough scenario I, breakthrough scenario II and challenge scenario. It could make the government, industries and related departments realize the development trend of key components about electric vehicle by the scenario descriptions. It can increase their willingness to invest in the related researches to achieve future image, also shape the usable engineering technique and integrated system concepts of electric vehicles in 2020 for public.