Prediction of Electric Vehicle Charging Load Considering User Travel Characteristics and Charging Behavior

Accurate forecasting of the electric vehicle (EV) charging load is a prerequisite for developing coordinated charging and discharging strategies. This study proposes a method for predicting the EV charging load by incorporating user travel characteristics and charging behavior. First, a transportation network–distribution network coupling framework is established based on a road network model with multi-source information fusion. Second, considering the multiple-intersection features of urban road networks, a time-flow model is developed. A time-optimal path selection method is designed based on the topological structure of the road network. Then, an EV driving energy consumption model is developed, accounting for both the mileage energy consumption and air conditioning energy consumption. Next, the user travel characteristics are finely modeled under two scenarios: working days and rest days. A user charging decision model is established using a fuzzy logic inference system, taking into account the state of charge (SOC), average electricity price, and parking duration. Finally, the Monte Carlo method is applied to simulate user travel and charging behavior. A simulation of the spatiotemporal distribution of the EV charging load was conducted in a specific area of Jiangning District, Nanjing. The simulation results show that there is a significant difference in the time distribution of EV charging loads between working days and rest days, with peak-to-valley differences of 3100.8 kW and 3233.5 kW, respectively.