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10.3390/jmse10121988
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Article

Shoreline Prediction Modelling as a Base Tool for Coastal Management: The Catania Plain Case Study (Italy)

by
Fx Anjar Tri Laksono
1,2,*,
Laura Borzì
3,*,
Salvatore Distefano
3,
Agata Di Stefano
3 and
János Kovács
1
1
The Doctoral School of Earth Sciences, Department of Geology and Meteorology, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, University of Pécs, 7624 Pécs, Hungary
2
Department of Geological Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Jenderal Soedirman University, Purbalingga 53371, Indonesia
3
Dipartimento di Scienze Biologiche, Geologiche e Ambientali, Sezione di Scienze della Terra, University of Catania, 95129 Catania, Italy
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(12), 1988; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121988
Submission received: 9 November 2022 / Revised: 23 November 2022 / Accepted: 10 December 2022 / Published: 14 December 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Littoral/Coastal Sedimentological and Morphological Studies)
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Abstract

Coastal dynamic is the complex result of multiple natural and human processes, and past and future coastal behavior studies become fundamental to support coastal zone management. However, the reliability of coastal evolution studies is strongly dependent on the analyzed time interval. The longer the period is, the more reliable the past shoreline change analysis and the forecast of shoreline position will be. The present study showed the 50-years shoreline evolution of the Catania coastal plain (Southern Italy), a densely populated area where human-induced processes profoundly changed natural dynamics. Landsat and Sentinel imageries were used to extract shorelines’ position over the time between 1972 and 2022 and the DSAS tool was used to calculate the shoreline change rates. The shoreline evolution in 2032 and 2042 was performed by the Kalman filter method, a tool largely applied to forecast short-term shoreline future position. Most of the Catania coastal plain was mainly retreating over the last decades. However, the most significant changes were registered in correspondence with the coastal structures and the river deltas. The reliability of the forecasting model was highly related to the coastal morphology. As such, the lower RMSE values were calculated in correspondence with the uniform coastal subsectors.
Keywords: coastal dynamic; shoreline change analysis; shoreline forecast; DSAS; Kalman filter method coastal dynamic; shoreline change analysis; shoreline forecast; DSAS; Kalman filter method

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MDPI and ACS Style

Laksono, F.A.T.; Borzì, L.; Distefano, S.; Di Stefano, A.; Kovács, J. Shoreline Prediction Modelling as a Base Tool for Coastal Management: The Catania Plain Case Study (Italy). J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10, 1988. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121988

AMA Style

Laksono FAT, Borzì L, Distefano S, Di Stefano A, Kovács J. Shoreline Prediction Modelling as a Base Tool for Coastal Management: The Catania Plain Case Study (Italy). Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2022; 10(12):1988. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121988

Chicago/Turabian Style

Laksono, Fx Anjar Tri, Laura Borzì, Salvatore Distefano, Agata Di Stefano, and János Kovács. 2022. "Shoreline Prediction Modelling as a Base Tool for Coastal Management: The Catania Plain Case Study (Italy)" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 12: 1988. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121988

APA Style

Laksono, F. A. T., Borzì, L., Distefano, S., Di Stefano, A., & Kovács, J. (2022). Shoreline Prediction Modelling as a Base Tool for Coastal Management: The Catania Plain Case Study (Italy). Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 10(12), 1988. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121988

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