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Hemodynamic and Pulmonary Permeability Characterization of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome by Transpulmonary Thermodilution
Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil

1
Department of Ecology, Institute of Biosciences, São Paulo State University (UNESP), Rio Claro 13506-900, Brazil
2
Molecular Epidemiology and Public Health Laboratory, Hopkirk Research Institute, Massey University, Private Bag 11-222, Palmerston North 4474, New Zealand
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Center for Virology Research, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, University of São Paulo, Av. Bandeirantes 3900, Vila Monte Alegre, Ribeirão Preto 14049-900, Brazil
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Vitalant Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA
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Department of Laboratory Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA
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Department of Ecology, Biosciences Institute, University of São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-900, Brazil
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Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Conservação de Mamíferos, Carnívoros (CENAP), Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação (ICMBio), Estrada Municipal Hisaichi Takebayashi, 8600—Bairro da Usina, Atibaia 12.952-011, Brazil
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Instituto Pró-Carnívoros, Av. Horácio Neto 1030, Parque Edmundo Zanoni Atibaia 12945-010, Brazil
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Department of Botany and Ecology, Federal University of Mato Grosso (UFMT), Cuiabá 78060-900, Brazil
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Departamento de Saúde Coletiva da Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Avenida Pará, 1720, Campus Umuarama, Uberlândia 38405-320, Brazil
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Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, Ilhéus 45662-900, Brazil
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Viruses 2019, 11(11), 1008; https://doi.org/10.3390/v11111008
Received: 16 October 2019 / Accepted: 27 October 2019 / Published: 31 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Hantaviruses)
Background: Hantavirus disease in humans is rare but frequently lethal in the Neotropics. Several abundant and widely distributed Sigmodontinae rodents are the primary hosts of Orthohantavirus and, in combination with other factors, these rodents can shape hantavirus disease. Here, we assessed the influence of host diversity, climate, social vulnerability and land use change on the risk of hantavirus disease in Brazil over 24 years. Methods: Landscape variables (native forest, forestry, sugarcane, maize and pasture), climate (temperature and precipitation), and host biodiversity (derived through niche models) were used in spatiotemporal models, using the 5570 Brazilian municipalities as units of analysis. Results: Amounts of native forest and sugarcane, combined with temperature, were the most important factors influencing the increase of disease risk. Population at risk (rural workers) and rodent host diversity also had a positive effect on disease risk. Conclusions: Land use change—especially the conversion of native areas to sugarcane fields—can have a significant impact on hantavirus disease risk, likely by promoting the interaction between the people and the infected rodents. Our results demonstrate the importance of understanding the interactions between landscape change, rodent diversity, and hantavirus disease incidence, and suggest that land use policy should consider disease risk. Meanwhile, our risk map can be used to help allocate preventive measures to avoid disease. View Full-Text
Keywords: land use change; emerging diseases; public health; polygon-based analysis; approximate Bayesian inference; latent Gaussian models; integrated nested Laplace approximations; zero inflation land use change; emerging diseases; public health; polygon-based analysis; approximate Bayesian inference; latent Gaussian models; integrated nested Laplace approximations; zero inflation
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Muylaert, R.L.; Sabino-Santos, G., Jr.; Prist, P.R.; Oshima, J.E.F.; Niebuhr, B.B.; Sobral-Souza, T.; Oliveira, S.V.; Bovendorp, R.S.; Marshall, J.C.; Hayman, D.T.S.; Ribeiro, M.C. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome Transmission Risk in Brazil. Viruses 2019, 11, 1008.

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