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Volume 17
Issue 9
10.3390/f17091026
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Topography-Mediated Nonlinear Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks to Multi-Gradient Warming and Precipitation Shifts in Northeast China’s Temperate Mountain Forests

by
Zicheng Wang
1,
Qianlai Zhuang
2,
Shuai Wang
1,*,
Zijiao Yang
1,
Fujun Sun
1,
Yang Wang
3,
Yan Sang
4,
Lingyue Wang
4 and
Xinxin Jin
1
1
College of Land and Environment, Shenyang Agricultural University, Shenyang 110866, China
2
Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
3
College of Resources and Environment, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, China
4
Lingyuan Natural Resources Affairs Service Center, Chaoyang 122500, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Forests 2026, 17(9), 1026; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091026
Submission received: 23 July 2026 / Revised: 21 August 2026 / Accepted: 25 August 2026 / Published: 27 August 2026
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Soil Carbon in Forest Ecosystems: Stocks, Stability, and Vulnerability to Global Change)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) in mountain forest ecosystems exerts critical controls over regional carbon balance and climate feedback loops. This study collected 209 stratified topsoil (0–30 cm) samples across temperate mountain forests of Northeast China, conducted a boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling framework integrated with space-for-time substitution, and established 15 combined thermopluviometric sensitivity scenarios to simulate SOC shifts under diversified climate disturbances. Tenfold cross-validation yielded a model mean R2 of 0.62, revealing mean annual temperature (MAT, RI = 35.31%) as the most influential predictor of SOC spatial variation, followed by elevation (ELE, RI = 19.11%), while single-season NDVI and soil particle fractions showed weak predictive capacity. Multi-scenario spatial simulation outputs demonstrated that simultaneous warming and aridification drastically reduce the coverage of high SOC zones, whereas increased precipitation can partially offset temperature-induced carbon mineralization losses. Terrain-mediated SOC spatial stratification remained stable across all climate backgrounds. This study quantifies the layered environmental association hierarchy of mountain SOC and generates spatially explicit modeled carbon sink projections under climate change. The terrain-dependent SOC response patterns provide operable differentiated carbon regulation guidance: humid low-lying convergence zones require long-term soil moisture conservation, while arid steep ridges need native mixed forest restoration to lift baseline carbon storage capacity, supporting precise watershed climate adaptation and targeted forest carbon sink management for temperate mountain regions.
Keywords: soil organic carbon stocks; boosted regression trees; space-for-time substitution; climate scenario simulation; mountain temperate forest; environmental variables soil organic carbon stocks; boosted regression trees; space-for-time substitution; climate scenario simulation; mountain temperate forest; environmental variables

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Wang, Z.; Zhuang, Q.; Wang, S.; Yang, Z.; Sun, F.; Wang, Y.; Sang, Y.; Wang, L.; Jin, X. Topography-Mediated Nonlinear Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks to Multi-Gradient Warming and Precipitation Shifts in Northeast China’s Temperate Mountain Forests. Forests 2026, 17, 1026. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091026

AMA Style

Wang Z, Zhuang Q, Wang S, Yang Z, Sun F, Wang Y, Sang Y, Wang L, Jin X. Topography-Mediated Nonlinear Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks to Multi-Gradient Warming and Precipitation Shifts in Northeast China’s Temperate Mountain Forests. Forests. 2026; 17(9):1026. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091026

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wang, Zicheng, Qianlai Zhuang, Shuai Wang, Zijiao Yang, Fujun Sun, Yang Wang, Yan Sang, Lingyue Wang, and Xinxin Jin. 2026. "Topography-Mediated Nonlinear Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks to Multi-Gradient Warming and Precipitation Shifts in Northeast China’s Temperate Mountain Forests" Forests 17, no. 9: 1026. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091026

APA Style

Wang, Z., Zhuang, Q., Wang, S., Yang, Z., Sun, F., Wang, Y., Sang, Y., Wang, L., & Jin, X. (2026). Topography-Mediated Nonlinear Responses of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks to Multi-Gradient Warming and Precipitation Shifts in Northeast China’s Temperate Mountain Forests. Forests, 17(9), 1026. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17091026

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