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Review

How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons

by
Douglas Sheil
1,2
1
Forest Ecology and Forest Management, Wageningen University & Research, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
2
Center for International Forestry Research, P.O. Box 0113 BOCBD, Bogor 16000, Indonesia
Forests 2026, 17(3), 359; https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359
Submission received: 23 January 2026 / Revised: 23 February 2026 / Accepted: 27 February 2026 / Published: 13 March 2026
(This article belongs to the Section Forest Meteorology and Climate Change)
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Abstract

Tropical cyclones kill thousands and inflict vast destruction annually. While ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions dominate their formation and behaviour, forests’ potential influence has received little systematic attention. This review examines whether and how forests may affect tropical cyclone frequency, intensity, and behaviour. Support varies by mechanism and stage. Post-landfall effects have the strongest support: forests slow storms, moderate wind speeds and curb flooding through enhanced soil infiltration. Forests also influence storm tracks, though magnitudes are uncertain. Pre-landfall effects are less certain. These include processes that modify offshore humidity, temperature, and aerosols. The Biotic Pump theory proposes that forest cover creates pressure gradients drawing moisture inland, reducing its availability for ocean storms. Forest influences are likely to be most evident near thresholds for storm formation or intensification, where small perturbations in conditions can alter outcomes. This context-dependency reconciles divergent findings and aids the integration of forests into climate risk assessments. Forest conservation provides clear post-landfall protection; pre-landfall effects, while uncertain, further strengthen the case for protection and highlight research priorities.

1. Introduction

In late 2025, Tropical Cyclone Senyar formed near the Strait of Malacca between Peninsular Malaysia and Sumatra, Indonesia. Senyar made landfall over several areas, killing over 1500 people and causing US$19.8 billion in damages. Tropical cyclones affect an estimated 20.4 million people yearly, with US$1.4 trillion in damages and 779,000 deaths since 1970 [1] (WMO (https://wmo.int/topics/tropical-cyclone, accessed 21 February 2026). Long-term consequences include slowed economic growth [2]. Comparable patterns unfold worldwide, often hitting low- and middle-income areas hardest [3].
Senyar attracted attention not only for its impacts but also because tropical cyclones seldom form in near-equatorial zones [4,5,6,7]. The affected region has endured extensive forest loss. This raises the question of whether land cover changes influence such storms. Forests are seldom considered in this context. We know that vegetation influences land–atmosphere processes that influence climate [8,9,10], including conditions linked to tropical cyclone formation and behaviour [9,11]. Such causal linkages, if they occur, have implications extending far beyond Senyar.
Evidence suggests that tropical cyclones are intensifying [12], travelling further [13,14,15], and ravaging larger regions [16]. Increasing numbers of people face exposure. Landfalling storms decay more slowly, reaching further inland and thus amplifying destruction [16]. Warmer oceans intensify storms and rainfall, while rising atmospheric stability and circulation changes curb formation frequency in some regions [17,18,19]. Meanwhile, the fiercest storms continue to strengthen and migrate further [13,20,21].
Concurrent with these trends, rapid tropical forest loss and degradation continue. From 2001 to 2024, Global Forest Watch estimates 230 Mha (13%) of global forest cover lost, 310 Mha disturbed or degraded, and 130 Mha gained or regrown [22]. This raises the question: Could it affect storms crossing these regions? For Senyar, the affected area (Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra, and surrounding regions) was once densely forested but is now largely deforested. Much loss is recent, with Malaysia losing ~7.5 Mha and Sumatra losing 8 Mha since 2001 [22]. This prompts the question: Do land cover changes favour such storms?
Ecologists have long studied how tropical cyclones shape forest structure, composition, and dynamics [23,24]. The converse—how forests influence tropical cyclones—has received little systematic attention, aside from occasional media interest [25,26].
Tropical cyclones have long attracted study [27,28,29]. Nonetheless, despite much research on oceanic processes, the role of terrestrial influences—specifically forest cover—remains fragmented and neglected. My review addresses this gap. While I focus on tropical cyclones, similar processes and implications apply to related systems, such as the extratropical storms that occur in the Mediterranean [30,31].
Forests deliver biodiversity conservation, climate mitigation, hydrological regulation, and coastal protection [32,33,34,35,36,37]. They also provide many other goods and services [38,39,40,41]. Some of these values contribute to mitigating tropical cyclone impacts; for example, mangroves can shield coastal communities from harm [42,43]. Access to the forest also aids communities in recovering [44,45]. My question is narrower: Does forest cover influence cyclone incidence or immediate impacts? If the answer is “yes”, the implications for forest conservation become significant.
In this review, I examine the influence of forests on tropical cyclones from genesis to landfall, weighing mechanisms, uncertainties, and scales necessary to incorporate forests into risk strategies. Section 2 outlines and summarises potential pathways and evidence. Section 3, Section 4, Section 5 and Section 6 assess remote effects on cyclone genesis and development, and Section 7 covers local impacts at and after landfall. Section 8 synthesizes the evidence, including regional variations, and conclude with implications for risk management and research.
Continued forest loss, intensifying storms, and vulnerable populations motivate this review. As climate models mature and capture ever more of the physical processes governing Earth’s climate, remaining uncertainties will increasingly involve terrestrial and marine biological systems [46]. Addressing these uncertainties requires atmospheric scientists, modellers, and biologists to work together. Achieving such collaborations requires shared goals and a shared language. This review contributes to this vision.
Given the potential consequences, the precautionary principle is relevant: plausibility is sufficient to guide risk management when the stakes are high. Uncertain links and mechanisms matter [47,48].
Given the interdisciplinary nature of this topic—spanning forestry, meteorology, and fluid dynamics—I provide a brief synthesis of core concepts to support a common technical vocabulary across these fields. A primer on tropical cyclones is provided in Box 1, and a glossary of key terms is provided at the end of this article.
Box 1. A primer on tropical cyclones.
    This overview is aimed at interdisciplinary readers. See the Glossary at the end of the article for terms.
    Tropical cyclones—regionally hurricanes or typhoons—are rotating, warm-core storms forming over tropical and subtropical oceans, typically at 5°–30° latitude (Figure 1). These storms feature a low-pressure core, organized deep convection, spiral rainbands, and winds exceeding 250 km/h in extreme cases [5,12,27,49].
    Tropical cyclones function as “heat engines”, converting temperature gradients into mechanical work. They harness energy from warm seas via evaporation; rising water vapour condenses, releasing latent heat that drives pressure gradients and circulation [50]. Winds increase surface evaporation, creating a positive feedback. Many details, processes, and interactions have been proposed and examined. Some articles distinguish “bottom-up” views, which stress surface processes like convection and fluxes [51], from “top-down” emphases on large-scale circulation and thermodynamics [50,52]. These perspectives complement each other.
    Formation and growth require the following: (1) sea surface temperatures above ~26.5–27 °C; (2) 70%–80% relative humidity at 3–6 km [4,18]; (3) low vertical wind shear to avoid disruption [53]; (4) sufficient Coriolis force [7]; and (5) an initial atmospheric disturbance or area of low pressure to trigger development [5,18,52]. Later sections expand on various details.
    Near land, cyclone behaviour changes: friction and loss of consistent oceanic heat prompt weakening, often within days, though rainfall lasts longer [54,55].
    Tropical cyclones inflict most damage at landfall. Powerful winds destroy buildings, uproot trees, and turn debris into projectiles; storm surges (high sea levels) flood and erode coastlines; heavy rains cause floods and trigger landslides. Severity hinges on landfall site (population, infrastructure, preparedness, and topography), track, speed (slower prolongs exposure), and intensity [2,56,57].
Forests 17 00359 g001
Figure 1. Approximate distribution of tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes and past and present forest cover. White: Oceans; green: current forest; pale green: previous forest (lost or fragmented due to human activity); grey: mainly non-forest; pink: main areas where tropical cyclones occur. Compiled/drawn from multiple sources, including https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_forest_cover_then_and_now.png#file (accessed on 20 October 2024), https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/hurricanes/location (accessed on 20 October 2024), & https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7079/historic-tropical-cyclone-tracks (accessed on 20 October 2024).
Figure 1. Approximate distribution of tropical cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes and past and present forest cover. White: Oceans; green: current forest; pale green: previous forest (lost or fragmented due to human activity); grey: mainly non-forest; pink: main areas where tropical cyclones occur. Compiled/drawn from multiple sources, including https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:World_forest_cover_then_and_now.png#file (accessed on 20 October 2024), https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/types-of-weather/hurricanes/location (accessed on 20 October 2024), & https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/7079/historic-tropical-cyclone-tracks (accessed on 20 October 2024).
Forests 17 00359 g001

2. Methods, Potential Pathways and Evidence Framework

A literature search for the combined terms “tropical cyclone” and “forest” or “tree” yields around 17,000 publications (Google Scholar 21 February 2026)—a volume that makes a traditional systematic review impractical. My approach was iterative: I identified key themes and then evaluated each by gathering and selecting studies and theories to give context and seeking recent publications for current understanding. Insights from discussions with colleagues across several disciplines also helped refine the scope and focus.
Forests may alter cyclone probabilities via multiple pathways spanning scales, processes, and outcomes, with varying theoretical and evidential support. These are grouped by cyclone stage (genesis/development vs. landfall/decay) and argument/evidence strength. I prioritise observations where available, though cyclone research often relies on models, patterns, and theory, e.g., [58,59,60]. Forest influences are likely to be most visible near thresholds for genesis or intensification, where small changes in conditions can alter what is observed.
Little is certain. The null expectation is that forest cover has a negligible influence. I apply three confidence levels: high (consistent observations/models), medium (plausible with moderate support), and low (theoretical/debated). Table 1 summarizes these pathways. The following sections examine each in further detail.
Forest systems may influence atmospheric circulation at regional to continental scales, while tropical cyclone formation and intensity are predominantly governed by ocean-scale processes. Any effects of the forest would therefore act by modifying the atmospheric environment within which storms develop, rather than overriding dominant effects. Any such influence will be context-dependent and most evident near thresholds of formation or intensification.

3. Temperature

Forests regulate near-surface temperatures via albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness. Intact forests sustain cooler landscapes than croplands or degraded areas, especially in humid tropics where evaporative cooling dominates [8,61]. Satellite data show deforestation raises tropical temperatures by 1–3 °C, peaking in dry periods [62]. Temperature changes can extend to coastal zones with any prevailing winds, potentially influencing cyclone genesis near land. For example, coastal temperature gradients reshape pressure fields and convergence, displacing convection seaward [78].
Simulations indicate that deforestation-driven warming can weaken low-level convergence over forested continents and enhance convergence over adjacent oceans, potentially shifting convective activity seaward [64,65]. I do not find confirmation of these predictions in observation studies. Despite these uncertainties, the modelled patterns offer a plausible pathway by which the presence, versus the absence, of forest may sometimes curtail or slow cyclone formation and growth.
Temperature and moisture are linked: the cooling and evaporative effects of forests set the stage for the processes explored next.

4. Moisture and Circulation

If temperature effects are the most straightforward pathway by which forests might influence cyclones, moisture dynamics are among the most consequential and contested. Forests do not just respond to rainfall; through evapotranspiration and recycling, they actively influence atmospheric moisture, potentially affecting storms forming offshore.
Atmospheric moisture fuels tropical cyclones, yet how trees and land cover influence this is unknown. Past simulation models may be too coarse to capture the fine-scale processes that govern land–moisture–rainfall feedbacks [95]. This oversight is significant given the increased attention to atmospheric moisture in cyclone research [96,97].
While most of the moisture sustaining tropical cyclones derives from the sea, new methods confirm that significant amounts can be terrestrial in origin [98]. These observations demonstrate that land can contribute more moisture than proximity alone implies. For instance, West Africa and the Sahel provide moisture to cyclones forming in the eastern Atlantic [99]. These flows likely reflect complex interactions with monsoon systems [100,101]. Much of this, in turn, likely comes from forests.
Tropical forests recycle water back to the atmosphere, keeping the air moist. An estimated 39% of global land rainfall derives directly from ocean evaporation, and the remaining 61% is recycled over land [36,73]. Forests play a dominant role in this recycling loop [46,74,102,103,104]. When forest cover is lost, the moisture recycling and available water vapour decline too. While local-scale outcomes can be mixed, deforestation reduces rainfall at larger scales [76,105,106], a pattern now observed across the tropics [37]. In the Amazon, recent data attribute ~74% of a 2 cm dry-season rainfall decline directly to forest loss [107]. These declines often surpass estimates based on direct evapotranspiration losses alone [108,109], implying non-linear relationships that also involve changes in the exchange of heat, moisture, and momentum in the boundary layer [110].
A potentially direct pathway for forest cover to influence cyclones is the transport of moisture from land to sea. While landward moisture flows from oceans generally exceed seaward flows [71,73], reverse flows are recognised too [68]. Intact forests are effective at maintaining humidity during droughts [36], but degradation past specific thresholds diminishes this capacity and intensifies regional drying [70,107].
Deforestation may reduce offshore humidity in the adjacent lower atmosphere by more than 10% [69]. Forest-derived moisture contributing to oceanic cyclones is a plausible, though unstudied, factor in storm dynamics [96,98,99]. While these deforestation-related shifts in humidity are small compared to seasonal and interannual variability, they could be the deciding factor in “borderline” contexts where a storm is struggling to develop. As I note in the following section, the opposite effect—where forests remove moisture from over the ocean—is likely to be more prevalent. Net effects may differ by region and season.
For completeness, I note past suggestions that forests could generate enough warm, moist air to support cyclone formation over land [111]. While the idea is provocative, I find no evidence that such processes occur. Frictional forces and diurnal temperature variations (forest canopies tend to be cool, especially at night) generally prevent the organized circulation required. The forest’s primary role is its ability to modify the atmospheric environment before landfall or mitigate the storm’s energy after it.

5. Condensation-Driven Dynamics

Beyond conventional temperature-driven mechanisms, I evaluate ideas and theories related to the Biotic Pump theory. This theory proposes that atmospheric condensation drives circulation [112,113,114]. Condensation removes water vapour from the gas phase, altering vertical pressure profiles and creating gradients that draw in surrounding air at low altitudes before returning it aloft. This establishes a self-sustaining circulation that converges over areas of high condensation. Because forests maintain high evapotranspiration and condensation rates, they can stabilize persistent low-pressure zones and moisture inflows [112,115]. The theory remains debated, with continuing discussion regarding its magnitude and relevance at large scales.
If valid, these processes have implications for tropical cyclones. While conventional views prioritize oceanic heat, an alternative perspective—echoing earlier modeling work—proposes that condensation also determines cyclone energetics and behaviour [116,117,118]. Indeed, observations show that tropical cyclone power scales with rainfall (Figure 2), and storms draw in moist air to fuel their dynamics [79]. One estimate found that water vapour may contribute five times more energy than direct heat to a storm’s power [79].
This theory implies that the forest acts as a “rival” low-pressure zone that competes with a growing cyclone for moisture. By creating a region of condensation-driven convergence, a large forest draws air inward and potentially away from a storm or a storm-forming region. This provides a mechanism for moisture starvation that is more active and structurally disruptive than the simple lack of a warm ocean surface. The various contexts and consequences of these interactions are elaborated in Figure 3.
The concepts underlying the Biotic Pump have been published in physics and atmospheric science journals [112,113,114,115]. The central question here is not whether condensation affects pressure—it does—but how this influences large-scale circulation and whether such gradients are powerful enough to influence cyclone formation, growth, and behaviour.
While these mechanisms remain absent from operational models, recent studies note increasing support [76,77]. Some phenomena, such as the abruptness of monsoon rains, are hard to capture in standard models but align with this theory. Notably, there are also distinct mechanisms that offer alternatives or complementary feedback, where forest-derived moisture itself generates the necessary circulation changes [75,120,121].
The scarcity of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic south of the equator provides a suggestive case study. While the South Atlantic possesses warm seas, storms are scarce—a fact usually attributed to high wind shear, unfavourable circulation, and low humidity [4,5]. Hurricane Catarina in March 2004 was an exception, landing in southern Brazil during an unusual alignment of low shear and high moisture [122,123]. The Biotic Pump offers an additional factor: the inland winds due to the Amazon, Congo, and Atlantic forests [124]. If forests draw moisture inland, they will impact nearby oceanic storms both through the resulting winds and by preventing water vapour from accumulating. Reducing forest cover could impact such a role. Such interactions would be most influential in areas where conditions for cyclone development are borderline.
Because cyclones generally track with the ambient air flows in which they are embedded [91], any forest-induced circulation could influence storm paths too. Risk assessments are complex. If a forest’s circulation accelerates a storm’s track toward landfall, it might increase the number of landfalls while reducing the time available for the storm to intensify over open water. Are more low-energy storms preferable to a smaller number of more powerful systems? The answer is likely context-specific.

6. Aerosols

Forests emit biogenic aerosols—including cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nucleating particles (INPs). These influence atmospheric moisture condensation and freezing [85,125,126] and thus the location of energy release and the form and patterns of water transport [127,128]. Effects are nonlinear; particle size, composition, and concentration matter [129,130,131]. Theory suggests that these can amplify or dampen cyclone formation depending on the context and the specific aerosols involved [82]. Subtle chemical differences can also impact the consequences for condensation and drop dynamics [132]. Studies suggest anthropogenic aerosols delay and weaken cyclones over SE Asia but bolster peripheral rain [133,134].
Vegetation, including forests, supplies many aerosols [36]. Forests release numerous biological particles [135] and volatile organic compounds, with the specific mix depending on species composition and conditions [36], forming secondary aerosols as CCN/INPs [80,81]. These affect cloud formation, precipitation, and convection [136,137].
That aerosols can influence tropical cyclones is established. Simulations show cyclone sensitivity to aerosols, with context-specific and sometimes conflicting results [86,129]. Aerosols can slow intensification by favouring condensation at lower levels of humidity, reducing energy per air volume [84]. Models show that high loading sometimes invigorates convection by delaying rain and elevating heat release, though it may also suppress it [83]. One review notes that aerosols interact with clouds, potentially altering cyclone development and intensity—an active research area [85].
While the role of biogenic aerosols in cloud formation is well-established, their specific influence on cyclone-scale dynamics remains unknown. The credibility of the wider concept appears supported by ongoing research into artificial aerosol interventions, such as cloud seeding, to modify cyclones [86,138]. By emitting organic compounds, forests can seed the atmosphere with particles that determine how clouds form and how much rain they yield—thus shifting tropical cyclone-related processes in ways not yet characterized. If moisture and condensation prove to be key (Section 4 and Section 5), aerosols may sometimes control these processes—for example, by triggering convergence at lower atmospheric vapour concentrations than otherwise.

7. Landfall and Track Modification

Forests exert direct, well-supported influence at landfall. Studies show that tropical cyclones weaken faster when passing over forests than over deforested or urban lands [88,139]. Tree height, density, and canopy structure slow winds [139,140]. Typical cover reduces powerful winds 20%–40% more rapidly than over open terrain. For a typical landfalling storm, this can accelerate wind decay by several hours and shorten destructive tracks inland. Simulations of tropical cyclones making landfall show that the presence of a coastal strip of mangroves rather than more open coastal wetlands results in a 10%–20% reduction in peak wind speeds and area flooded (for details, see [141]).
Rain rates typically increase two to three days before landfall driven by friction that enhances convergence [142]. Given forests’ high surface roughness, they likely accentuate this effect, though formal examination appears absent from the literature.
Occasionally, tropical cyclones intensify as they near land. These are typically small storms under clear skies [143]. Simulations indicate that roughness and reduced evaporation cut latent heat flux, but sufficient available moisture may sometimes sustain intensification [89]. Observations show that this occurs only where tree cover is sparse and moist heat is available—conditions that are absent in forested landscapes (e.g., a wet desert; [144]). Additional tree cover will weaken or prevent such intensification.
Forests also influence rainfall and flooding [88]. Forest soils typically possess higher infiltration and storage than non-forest soils, reducing runoff. But after prolonged rain—common in slow storms—soils become saturated, reducing the potential for buffering against floods [90]. Forest loss tends to accentuate landslide risk in steep terrain; intact forests stabilize slopes, but such effects are context-dependent [35].
What do we know about storm tracks? Tropical cyclones exhibit beta drift—a shift poleward/westward at 1–3 m/s, faster in intense storms—from the interplay between the storm and the Coriolis force. There are also internal processes that can interact with variation in regional winds that cause significant drift [145]. Warming slows and shifts mid-latitude circulation and thus also storm tracks [90]. Near land, roughness, topography, and moisture induce wind/convection asymmetries, prompting landward drifts [91,146]. Key factors—roughness, moisture, and shear—shape tracks and rain near landfall, varying by conditions [87,92,93,94]. Forests can influence tracks via friction, moisture, temperature, and pressure, though magnitudes remain uncertain.
We should distinguish between the large-scale atmospheric currents that “steer” a storm and the local land-surface effects that “nudge” it. Forests need not override the steering flows but can influence the storm’s path through surface friction. Because a forest canopy is rougher than the open sea or a cleared coastal plain, it exerts an asymmetric drag on the storm’s circulation and influences its motion.
In summary, although numerous details and magnitudes are uncertain, post-landfall, forests moderate impacts and the severity of damage.

8. Context

Landfall effects matter everywhere. Boreal and temperate forests lie outside tropical cyclone formation zones, though landfall effects discussed here remain relevant wherever storms end up. Other effects are more context-dependent.
Where ocean temperatures, humidity, and circulation are ideal for cyclone development, forest influences are unlikely to be detectable. Where constraints clearly prevent development, forest cover will not overcome them. Any influence is therefore most visible under marginal conditions as outlined previously.
Regions warranting attention include Sumatra and Borneo, where rapid deforestation coincides with warming seas and expanding cyclone-prone zones; the Gulf of Guinea margins, where West African forest loss may thus affect Atlantic storm moisture; and the Bay of Bengal. These are regions where a forest signal is most likely to be detectable.
From a research perspective, contexts where storm development is sensitive to borderline conditions, offer the greatest potential for detecting a forest signal. Another promising option is to focus on regions near seasonal forests, where coupling fluctuates [70] and the tropical cyclone potential is seasonally limited. We should monitor storm formation and growth and link these to variations in conditions, with estimates of the contribution of the forest in determining these.

9. Synthesis, Future Research and Conclusions

Cyclone Senyar, which introduced this review, formed in a region where tropical cyclones rarely form and in a region that has lost much of its forest cover in recent decades. Whether this loss contributed to its genesis or severity cannot be established from a single event. Senyar will not be the last storm whose formation or severity may have been shaped by forest loss. As cyclones push into new latitudes and many forested areas decline, the interactions explored here will grow in importance. There are plausible grounds to expect elevated tropical cyclone risk where deforestation continues.
This review has limitations. The nature of the arguments and evidence precluded objective weighting, and readers with different backgrounds may assess them differently. Tropical cyclone systems and forests are each complex, and establishing the links between them demands engaging with that complexity. This review is a start.
I assess the arguments and evidence by mechanism (Table 1):
High Confidence: Post-landfall effects—roughness hastening energy loss and hydrological buffering against floods—align with observations and models (Section 8).
Medium Confidence: Moisture pathways—evapotranspiration, recycling, and condensation dynamics—garner moderate backing; recycling is well-documented (Section 4 and Section 6).
Low Confidence: Temperature-, circulation-, aerosol-, and Biotic Pump-related pathways draw weaker support, lacking direct tropical cyclone ties (Section 3 and Section 5, and Section 7). Aerosols appear speculative, though continued interest in seeding shows belief in their potential potency. Connecting forest-derived aerosols to cyclone-scale impacts remains speculative despite the theoretical plausibility. Biotic pump mechanisms are similarly placed in this category due to the limited direct observational validation of cyclone-scale impacts.
Oceanic heat content, large-scale circulation, and vertical wind shear are seen as the dominant controls on tropical cyclone formation and growth [10]. Forests do not need to control the weather to nudge the various probabilities. By modifying terrestrial and atmospheric boundaries, forest cover shifts the odds of storm development and the severity of its aftermath.
The Biotic Pump offers a specific mechanism for moisture effects that may operate at relevant scales and magnitudes. It warrants continued scrutiny.
Most effects likely slow or prevent storm development, but this is not inevitable in every case and context. In certain contexts, forests may boost oceanic moisture, activate aerosol-mediated processes, or shift landfall patterns.
Forests are likely most influential where atmospheric conditions are marginal for cyclone development and forest cover is extensive. Where conditions are strongly favourable or unfavourable, effects are likely to be negligible. This sensitivity reconciles divergent results and provides a framework for integrating forests into risk assessments.
Overall, theory and evidence indicate that tropical forests reduce damage along storm-tracks and may limit the genesis, growth, and persistence of tropical cyclones (see Figure 4). Forests’ post-landfall benefits are clear and well-supported. Regions at risk—almost everywhere in the tropics and subtropics—should integrate forest conservation into coastal disaster planning.
Pre-landfall effects are unclear but plausible. In marginal cyclone zones, forest loss could elevate formation by disrupting moisture flows. Multiple mechanisms noted here warrant systematic appraisal. Given current uncertainties, the precautionary principle supports prioritizing forest conservation.Preparedness and adaptation are urgent in all tropical-cyclone-affected regions. For nations such as Bangladesh, early warning systems, shelters, and evacuation planning have saved many lives—though long-term adaptation requires finance beyond what poorer nations can self-fund [147]. Even in wealthier nations such as the US, economic losses from storms run into the trillions, and significant shortcomings remain [148]. The central inequity is that those least responsible for climate change are those least able to adapt to it. Protecting intact coastal forests in cyclone-prone regions where storm activity is projected to intensify offers one valuable form of protection. This does not require certainty: The post-landfall benefits alone justify forest retention, while the pre-landfall mechanisms warrant urgent investigation. Natural forests already merit protection for their roles in biodiversity, water security, and climate; if they also reduce cyclone incidence and threats, the case for doing more becomes compelling.

Funding

This research received no external funding.

Data Availability Statement

No new data were created or analysed in this study. Data sharing is not applicable to this article.

Acknowledgments

I am grateful to the many colleagues who have helped inform and develop these ideas. Earlier drafts benefited from comments and suggestions from Anastassia Makarieva, Kevin Trenberth, Gary Lackmann, Meine van Noordwijk, Owen Allen and reviewers.

Conflicts of Interest

The author declares no conflicts of interest.

Glossary

Aerodynamic RoughnessA measure of how much a surface slows down and creates turbulence in air flowing over it. Forests have high aerodynamic roughness compared to smooth surfaces like water or grassland, which causes faster dissipation of wind energy.
AerosolsTiny solid or liquid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such as dust, sea salt, pollen, or compounds formed from plant emissions. These particles serve as surfaces on which water vapour can condense to form clouds and thus influence cloud formation, precipitation, and atmospheric dynamics.
AlbedoThe fraction of incoming solar radiation that a surface reflects back to space rather than absorbing. Forests typically have low albedo (they absorb more sunlight) compared to lighter surfaces like snow or bare soil, which affects how much solar energy heats the surface and lower atmosphere.
Atmospheric Boundary Layer (or Boundary Layer)The lowest 1–2 kilometres of the atmosphere where conditions are directly influenced by contact with the Earth’s surface. This is the layer where daily temperature changes, surface winds, and turbulence from surface friction are strongest. Its behaviour differs across forests versus cleared land.
Beta DriftThe natural tendency of tropical cyclones to move poleward and westward (typically 1–3 m/s) due to interactions between the storm’s rotation and Earth’s varying Coriolis force, independent of larger-scale winds.
Biogenic AerosolsAerosols produced by living organisms, such as particles or compounds emitted by forests, which can influence cloud formation and precipitation; distinct from human-made or mineral aerosols.
Biotic PumpA theory, built from basic physical principles, proposing that condensation of atmospheric water vapour over extensive forested regions (1000 km2 or more) generates low pressure that draws moist air from surrounding areas. This mechanism is proposed to sustain high rainfall deep inland.
Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN)Microscopic particles (typically 0.1–1 micrometre in size) that provide surfaces on which atmospheric water vapour can condense to form cloud droplets. Without these particles, the air would need to become more (super)saturated before clouds could form. Forests emit compounds that contribute to CCN formation. Different tree (and plant) species emit different compounds.
Condensation-Induced Pressure GradientsPressure differences created when water vapour condenses and removes gas molecules from the air, driving horizontal air flows; proposed as a key driver in mechanisms like the Biotic Pump.
ConvectionThe upward movement of air that occurs when warm, buoyant air rises, and cooler air sinks to replace it. In tropical regions, strong convection creates towering thunderstorm clouds as moisture-laden air rises rapidly, cools, and releases latent heat through condensation, which further drives motion upward.
Convergence (or Atmospheric Convergence)The process where winds flow together from different directions, forcing air to accumulate and rise. This rising motion can trigger cloud formation and precipitation. Low-pressure areas create convergence as air flows inward toward the centre, which is why they are associated with storms.
Coriolis ForceThe apparent deflection of moving air (or any moving object) caused by Earth’s rotation. Air flowing toward a low-pressure centre gets deflected sideways—to the right in the Northern Hemisphere and left in the Southern Hemisphere—causing it to spiral rather than flow straight inward. This deflection creates cyclone rotation and weakens to zero at the equator.
Cyclogenesis (or Genesis)The birth and initial development of a tropical cyclone from a pre-existing weather disturbance. This process requires specific atmospheric and oceanic conditions to be met simultaneously, and most disturbances fail to complete the transition to tropical cyclone status.
Deep ConvectionUpward air motion that extends through the full depth of the troposphere (typically 10–15 km altitude in the tropics), often producing intense thunderstorms with heavy rain and sometimes hail. This is the fundamental building block of tropical cyclones and is fuelled by latent heat release from condensing water vapour.
Diurnal Temperature VariationsDaily cycles in temperature, typically warmer during the day and cooler at night, are influenced by solar heating and surface properties such as forest canopies.
EvapotranspirationThe combined process of water evaporation from soil and water surfaces and transpiration (water release) from vegetation. Note that transpiration and evaporation are distinct processes, leading some experts to prefer avoiding the combined term [149]—though in climate science, it is useful shorthand for the total moisture coming from the land. In tropical forests, these combined processes typically return 3–6 mm of water per day to the atmosphere (higher in wet seasons), often comparable to or exceeding direct rainfall inputs in continental interiors.
EyewallThe ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding a tropical cyclone’s calm central eye, where the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall occur.
Heat EngineA thermodynamic system that converts temperature differences into mechanical work. Tropical cyclones act as heat engines by extracting energy from the large temperature contrast between the warm ocean surface and the cold upper atmosphere, converting it into the storm’s rotational winds and circulation through evaporation, ascent, condensation, and latent heat release.
Hydrological BufferingThe capacity of forests to moderate water flows by storing rainfall in soils and vegetation, reducing flood risks during storms, though limited by soil saturation.
Ice nucleating particles (INPs)Microscopic particles that enable water droplets to freeze into ice crystals at temperatures where they would otherwise remain liquid (typically between 0 °C and –38 °C). Ice formation in tropical thunderstorms releases latent heat and affects storm dynamics, making INPs potentially important for deep convection and cyclone development.
Land–Atmosphere CouplingThe two-way interaction between land surface properties (temperature, moisture, and vegetation) and atmospheric conditions above. Surface characteristics affect air temperature, humidity, and wind, which in turn influence precipitation, radiation, and other processes that feed back to alter the surface. This coupling is strong over forests due to high evapotranspiration rates.
Latent HeatEnergy that is absorbed or released when water changes phase (between vapour, liquid, and ice) without changing temperature. When water evaporates from the ocean or forest, it absorbs energy; when that vapour later condenses in the atmosphere, it releases this energy.
Mid-Level Humidity (or Mid-Troposphere Humidity)The amount of water vapour in the atmosphere at altitudes of roughly 3–6 kilometres. Developing tropical cyclones are sensitive to humidity at these levels—relative humidity of 70%–80% is typically needed—because dry air at these altitudes can penetrate the storm and suppress the convection necessary for organisation and intensification.
Moisture RecyclingThe process by which water evaporated from land surfaces returns as precipitation over the same region or downwind areas, rather than being lost to distant locations. In large forest basins like the Amazon, 40%–60% of rainfall comes from recycled continental moisture rather than directly from the ocean.
MonsoonA seasonal wind system that reverses direction, typically causing an abrupt transition between dry (low rainfall) and wet (high rainfall) seasons.
Oceanic Heat ContentThe total thermal energy stored in the upper ocean layers, beyond just surface temperature, which provides sustained fuel for tropical cyclone intensification.
Positive FeedbackA self-amplifying process in which an initial change triggers effects that further increase the change, such as stronger cyclone winds enhancing evaporation to fuel even stronger winds.
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)The temperature of the ocean’s surface layer (typically the top few metres), which is critical for tropical cyclone formation and intensification. SSTs generally need to exceed about 26.5–27 °C to provide sufficient energy for cyclone development, though this threshold depends on other atmospheric conditions.
Storm SurgeAn abnormal rise in sea level above normal tidal levels, caused by a storm’s low pressure and strong winds pushing water onshore.
Surface FluxesThe continuous exchanges of energy, water vapour, and momentum between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. These include heat transfer (both sensible and latent), moisture release through evapotranspiration, and momentum exchange due to wind friction. Forests alter all three types of fluxes when compared to other land cover.
Tropical CycloneA rotating, organised system of thunderstorms and strong winds that forms over tropical or subtropical waters, characterised by a warm core, low central pressure, and spiral structure. These storms are called hurricanes in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific, typhoons in the western Pacific, and simply cyclones in the Indian Ocean and South Pacific.
TroposphereThe lowest layer of Earth’s atmosphere (typically 10–15 km altitude in the tropics), where most weather, clouds, and convection occur.
Vertical Wind ShearThe change in wind speed or direction with altitude. Strong vertical wind shear—where winds at the surface blow differently than winds at 10–15 km altitude—can tilt and disrupt a developing cyclone’s vertical structure, preventing organisation. Low shear (winds moving in the same direction at all levels) allows storms to maintain the vertical alignment necessary for intensification.
Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs)Gaseous chemicals that can react in the atmosphere to form secondary aerosols or coat other particles, influencing cloud microphysics and potentially cyclone development. Forests and vegetation produce many such compounds.

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Figure 2. Predicted and observed power in the cyclone eyewall with respect to cyclone velocity. Empirical data (blue bars with two standard deviations) and predicted values, redrawn from data and analyses presented in [118,119]. See these publications for more details on how the observations and calculations are made.
Figure 2. Predicted and observed power in the cyclone eyewall with respect to cyclone velocity. Empirical data (blue bars with two standard deviations) and predicted values, redrawn from data and analyses presented in [118,119]. See these publications for more details on how the observations and calculations are made.
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Figure 3. Schematic illustration (not to scale) of moisture dynamics and the Biotic Pump concept in relation to atmospheric conditions for cyclone formation. Vertical solid arrows represent evaporation intensity (arrow width indicates relative flux magnitude). The resulting low atmospheric pressure over regions with higher evaporation rates draws in moist air from areas with lower evaporation (horizontal open arrows), creating net moisture transfer toward high-evaporation regions. The dark blue spiral symbol indicates potential cyclone formation. (a) Under full sunshine, tropical forests maintain higher evaporation rates than oceans, drawing moist ocean air inland and reducing the moisture available for cyclone formation over oceans. (b) In deserts with low evaporation, air flows toward oceans where moisture accumulates, potentially favouring cyclone formation. (c) In seasonal climates, forest evaporation falls below oceanic rates during dry winter seasons when solar energy is insufficient; oceans then draw moist air from land, though lower temperatures reduce cyclone likelihood. In summer, high forest evaporation is reestablished (as in panel (a)), creating seasonal monsoon circulation. (d) Following deforestation, reduced land evaporation cannot counterbalance oceanic evaporation; air flows seaward, land becomes arid, and moisture accumulates over oceans, potentially increasing cyclone formation. (e) Continuous forest cover, maintaining high evaporation, draws large volumes of moist air inland from coasts. Conditions most favourable for cyclone formation (sustained high oceanic moisture) occur primarily in scenarios (b,c) (warm season) and (d); the smaller symbol in c reflects lower water vapour at cooler temperatures. Note: Dry air returns at higher altitudes from wetter to drier regions to complete the circulation cycle. Modified from [115].
Figure 3. Schematic illustration (not to scale) of moisture dynamics and the Biotic Pump concept in relation to atmospheric conditions for cyclone formation. Vertical solid arrows represent evaporation intensity (arrow width indicates relative flux magnitude). The resulting low atmospheric pressure over regions with higher evaporation rates draws in moist air from areas with lower evaporation (horizontal open arrows), creating net moisture transfer toward high-evaporation regions. The dark blue spiral symbol indicates potential cyclone formation. (a) Under full sunshine, tropical forests maintain higher evaporation rates than oceans, drawing moist ocean air inland and reducing the moisture available for cyclone formation over oceans. (b) In deserts with low evaporation, air flows toward oceans where moisture accumulates, potentially favouring cyclone formation. (c) In seasonal climates, forest evaporation falls below oceanic rates during dry winter seasons when solar energy is insufficient; oceans then draw moist air from land, though lower temperatures reduce cyclone likelihood. In summer, high forest evaporation is reestablished (as in panel (a)), creating seasonal monsoon circulation. (d) Following deforestation, reduced land evaporation cannot counterbalance oceanic evaporation; air flows seaward, land becomes arid, and moisture accumulates over oceans, potentially increasing cyclone formation. (e) Continuous forest cover, maintaining high evaporation, draws large volumes of moist air inland from coasts. Conditions most favourable for cyclone formation (sustained high oceanic moisture) occur primarily in scenarios (b,c) (warm season) and (d); the smaller symbol in c reflects lower water vapour at cooler temperatures. Note: Dry air returns at higher altitudes from wetter to drier regions to complete the circulation cycle. Modified from [115].
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Figure 4. Schematic representation of the formation and power gain of tropical cyclones in a context without extensive forest and with (and near to) extensive forests. Red + signs show sources of energy (heat and vapour) that are available to cyclones; yellow signs show losses of energy (friction). We omit aerosols as the nature of their contribution remains uncertain. The magnitude of the relationships remains speculative. Signs reflect hypothesized dominant effects; exceptions may occur: i.e., friction has a negative role in cyclone development, and heat and moisture play positive roles.
Figure 4. Schematic representation of the formation and power gain of tropical cyclones in a context without extensive forest and with (and near to) extensive forests. Red + signs show sources of energy (heat and vapour) that are available to cyclones; yellow signs show losses of energy (friction). We omit aerosols as the nature of their contribution remains uncertain. The magnitude of the relationships remains speculative. Signs reflect hypothesized dominant effects; exceptions may occur: i.e., friction has a negative role in cyclone development, and heat and moisture play positive roles.
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Table 1. Distinct forest-related processes influencing tropical cyclones, including spatial/temporal scales, potential implications of forest loss, evidence certainty, and key sources. * Evidence certainty: high = consistent observations/models; medium = plausible with moderate support; low = theoretical/debated indirect support. ** Effects most plausible in marginal atmospheric conditions (e.g., near thresholds for storm genesis and growth).
Table 1. Distinct forest-related processes influencing tropical cyclones, including spatial/temporal scales, potential implications of forest loss, evidence certainty, and key sources. * Evidence certainty: high = consistent observations/models; medium = plausible with moderate support; low = theoretical/debated indirect support. ** Effects most plausible in marginal atmospheric conditions (e.g., near thresholds for storm genesis and growth).
Process/EffectScalePotential Implications of Forest LossEvidence Certainty *Key Sources
Surface cooling via albedo, evapotranspiration, and roughness ** Local to regional (tens to hundreds of km); hours to seasons Warmer land surfaces, weakening land–sea temperature contrasts and shifting convergence seaward, potentially increasing offshore storm activity in marginal areas Low [8,61,62,63,64,65]
Moisture recycling and evapotranspiration influencing atmospheric humidity ** Regional to continental (hundreds to thousands of km); seasonal to interannual Reduced atmospheric moisture availability; effects on cyclone development depend on whether forests act as net moisture source or sink to oceanic areas and on local circulation patterns Medium [66,67,68,69,70,71,72,73,74,75]
Condensation-driven pressure gradients and circulation (Biotic Pump theory) ** Regional to continental (hundreds to thousands of km); seasonal Diminished low pressure drawing moisture inland, potentially elevating oceanic moisture availability and cyclone likelihood Low [76,77,78,79]
Aerosols (biogenic CCN/INP) influencing cloud microphysics and precipitation ** Local to regional (tens to hundreds of km); hours to days Altered CCN/INP levels may suppress or invigorate convection with uncertain cyclone impacts, including possible suppression of early-stage intensification Low [80,81,82,83,84,85,86]
Surface roughness accelerating energy loss at landfall Local (tens to hundreds of km); hours to days Faster storm decay over forest; cleared land extends storm life, increasing inland wind damage by 20%–40% High [54,87]
Hydrological buffering influencing flooding post-landfall Local (tens to hundreds of km); hours to days Increased runoff and flood risk due to reduced infiltration, though context-dependent (e.g., soil saturation limits; effects vary with storm speed and antecedent conditions) Medium to high [35,55,88,89]
Forest influences on storm tracks (via friction, moisture, temperature, and pressure gradients) Local to regional (tens to hundreds of km); hours to days Altered landward drift, speed, and rainfall distribution, potentially increasing exposure frequency or duration in coastal areas Low to medium [87,90,91,92,93,94]
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Sheil, D. How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons. Forests 2026, 17, 359. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359

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Sheil D. How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons. Forests. 2026; 17(3):359. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359

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Sheil, Douglas. 2026. "How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons" Forests 17, no. 3: 359. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359

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Sheil, D. (2026). How Forests May Reduce the Incidence of Destructive Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes and Typhoons. Forests, 17(3), 359. https://doi.org/10.3390/f17030359

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