Landscape Aesthetics Quality in Subalpine Forests of Eastern Tibetan Plateau Will Greatly Decrease by the End of the Century?

Landscape aesthetic quality (LAQ) is a vital cultural ecosystem service in global forests, particularly in the subalpine forests across the Tibetan Plateau, which are considered popular tourist destinations due to their unique cultural services. However, the explicit spatial localization and spatial–temporal dynamics of LAQ in subalpine forests in the Tibetan Plateau remain largely unexplored. Herein, we introduced a method for assessing LAQ that integrates the species’ biophysical attributes with spatial landscape characteristics, allowing for a spatially explicit quantification of LAQ. We further employ this approach to project changes in LAQ under forest landscape dynamics (2016–2096) in Jiuzhaigou, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Most regions exhibited moderate or low LAQ, with high values ible, while over half of low-LAQ regions were not. The high-value zone of LAQ is projected to rise slightly by 2056 but decline sharply by 2096. These results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity in LAQ and indicate that future landscape dynamics will substantially reshape its distribution in the subalpine forests of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Our findings provide early evidence of declining cultural ecosystem quality in subalpine forests and offer guidance for adaptive management in similar mountain ecosystems worldwide.