Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Site-Level Measurements
2.3. Model Predictors
2.4. Data-Driven Model
2.5. SOC Prediction
3. Results
3.1. Future Climate and Vegetation Change Characteristics
3.2. SOC Prediction under Different Climate Change Scenarios
3.3. Elevation-Dependent SOC Dynamics in the Qilian Mountains
4. Discussion
4.1. SOC Prediction
4.2. Elevation-Dependent SOC Dynamics
4.3. Implications for SOC Management under Climate Change
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Vegetation Type | Area (km2) | Change in Area (km2) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2000s | 2050s (RCP2.6) | 2050s (RCP4.5) | 2050s (RCP8.5) | |
Montane desert steppe | 101 | −10 | −15 | −24 |
Montane steppe | 745 | 13 | 12 | 18 |
Montane meadow steppe | 267 | −29 | −18 | −34 |
Montane shrub | 447 | 40 | 37 | 56 |
Montane forest | 776 | 32 | 63 | 100 |
Subalpine meadow | 1564 | 199 | 216 | 250 |
Subalpine shrub | 1002 | −63 | −37 | 234 |
Alpine meadow | 3676 | −124 | −185 | −577 |
Alpine desert | 1875 | −57 | −72 | −22 |
No vegetation | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Statistics | Minimum | 1st Quartile | Median | Mean | 3rd Quartile | Maximum | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | 0.73 | 0.77 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.80 | 0.82 | 0.02 |
RMSE | 4.70 | 5.00 | 5.06 | 5.10 | 5.26 | 5.50 | 0.19 |
Vegetation Types | SOC Stock (kg m−2) | SOC Stock Changes (kg m−2) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
2000s | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |
Montane desert steppe | 14.89 | 0.06 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Montane steppe | 19.62 | −0.40 | −0.35 | −0.39 |
Montane meadow steppe | 25.61 | −0.69 | −0.64 | −0.61 |
Montane shrub | 24.72 | −0.89 | −0.71 | −0.96 |
Montane forest | 24.99 | −0.93 | −1.10 | −1.26 |
Subalpine meadow | 28.21 | −2.85 | −3.24 | −3.64 |
Subalpine shrub | 31.37 | −2.46 | −3.04 | −3.30 |
Alpine meadow | 23.91 | 0.87 | 0.57 | 0.08 |
Alpine desert | 8.45 | 0.73 | 0.96 | 1.00 |
No vegetation | 16.73 | 0.15 | 0.01 | −0.29 |
Total | 22.23 | −0.43 | −0.63 | −1.01 |
Vegetation Types | Area (km2) | SOC Storage (Tg) | SOC Storage Changes (Tg) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000s | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | 2000s | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | |
Montane desert steppe | 101.14 | 90.65 | 86.16 | 77.17 | 1.51 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Montane steppe | 745.45 | 758.19 | 757.44 | 762.68 | 14.63 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
Montane meadow steppe | 267.46 | 238.24 | 248.73 | 233.00 | 6.85 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.14 |
Montane shrub | 446.52 | 486.98 | 483.98 | 503.46 | 11.04 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.48 |
Montane forest | 776.17 | 807.63 | 839.10 | 875.81 | 19.40 | −0.75 | −0.93 | −1.11 |
Subalpine meadow | 1563.57 | 1762.86 | 1780.09 | 1813.81 | 44.11 | −5.03 | −5.76 | −6.60 |
Subalpine shrub | 1001.68 | 939.49 | 964.97 | 1236.18 | 31.42 | −2.31 | −2.93 | −4.08 |
Alpine meadow | 3676.31 | 3551.94 | 3491.26 | 3099.43 | 87.90 | 3.11 | 2.00 | 0.25 |
Alpine desert | 1875.24 | 1817.55 | 1802.57 | 1852.76 | 15.84 | 1.32 | 1.72 | 1.86 |
No vegetation | 46.45 | 46.45 | 45.70 | 45.70 | 0.78 | 0.01 | 0.00 | −0.01 |
Total | 10,500.00 | 10,500.00 | 10,500.00 | 10,500.00 | 233.46 | −4.55 | −6.66 | −10.62 |
Vegetation Types | Area (km2) | SOC (2000s) | SOC Changes (RCP2.6) | SOC Changes (RCP4.5) | SOC Changes (RCP8.5) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stock (kg m−2) | Storage (Tg) | Stock (kg m−2) | Storage (Tg) | Stock (kg m−2) | Storage (Tg) | Stock (kg m−2) | Storage (Tg) | ||
Glacic Cryosols | 1923.19 | 12.45 | 23.94 | 0.83 | 1.60 | 0.95 | 1.83 | 0.84 | 1.62 |
Leptosols (Gelic) | 4083.13 | 23.89 | 97.54 | −0.11 | −0.44 | −0.33 | −1.35 | −0.85 | −3.48 |
Eutric Leptosols | 685.52 | 29.38 | 20.14 | −1.70 | −1.16 | −1.96 | −1.35 | −2.38 | −1.63 |
Mollic Leptosols | 2827.47 | 25.71 | 72.69 | −1.47 | −4.15 | −1.89 | −5.33 | −2.37 | −6.71 |
Greyzemic Umbrisols | 433.04 | 24.81 | 10.75 | −0.80 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −0.36 |
Haplic Chernozems | 53.94 | 20.21 | 1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Haplic Kastanozems | 403.82 | 14.89 | 6.01 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.07 |
Haplic Calcisols | 89.90 | 14.57 | 1.31 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Total | 10,500.00 | 22.23 | 233.46 | −0.43 | −4.55 | −0.63 | −6.66 | −1.01 | −10.62 |
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Liu, W.; Zhu, M.; Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Yang, L.; Zhang, C. Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains. Forests 2021, 12, 1698. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121698
Liu W, Zhu M, Li Y, Zhang J, Yang L, Zhang C. Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains. Forests. 2021; 12(12):1698. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121698
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Wei, Meng Zhu, Yongge Li, Jutao Zhang, Linshan Yang, and Chengqi Zhang. 2021. "Assessing Soil Organic Carbon Stock Dynamics under Future Climate Change Scenarios in the Middle Qilian Mountains" Forests 12, no. 12: 1698. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12121698