Simulation-Based Cost Analysis of Industrial Supply of Chips from Logging Residues and Small-Diameter Trees †
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. General Description of the Model and Biomass Characteristics
2.2. Demand and Supply
2.3. Terminal Characteristics
2.4. Systems for Comminution and Transport to the Terminal or End-User
2.4.1. Description of Systems
2.4.2. Input Data
2.4.3. Working Shifts
2.5. Cost Calculation
2.6. Experimental Design
2.7. Sensitivity Analysis
2.8. Verification and Validation
3. Results
3.1. Main Results
3.2. Material Flows
3.3. Sensitivity Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Attributes | Unit | Distribution | 95% of Values between |
---|---|---|---|
Site size 1 | dry t | Gamma (12, 1.53, 44.6) 2 | 42–88 |
Individual windrow size | dry t | Gamma (12, 3.43, 10.9) 3 | 30–55 |
Moisture content (MC) | % | Triangular (26, 45, 61) 4 | 44–48 |
Trucking distance from sites to the terminal or end-user 5 | |||
May-November | km | Triangular (40, 49, 99) 4 | 45–54 |
December-April | km | Triangular (4, 27, 35) 4 | 20–29 |
Relocation distance between sites 6 | km | Beta (0.10, 68, 0.56, 4.83) 7 | 5–15 |
Work Element | Unit | Description and Distribution | |
---|---|---|---|
Forwarder-Mounted Chipper | Chipper-Truck | ||
Set-up at site | min | After relocation to new site: unload chains, tracks, portable wooden bridge and a log. | − |
Triangular (2, 3, 6) 1 | |||
Finishing site | min | Before relocation to new site: loading of elements in set-up. If road damages, the ground was flattened with a log and forwarder’s front-mounted shovel. | − |
Triangular (2, 3, 6) 1 | |||
Chipping | min dry t 1 | Chipping including crane work. | Chipping including crane work. |
Triangular (2.3, 4.1, 6.1) 1 | Triangular (3.2, 4.8, 6.2) 1 | ||
Complementary activities to chipping | min dry t 1 | Comprises terrain driving empty/full between the windrow-tipping point at the roadside and along the windrow, tipping over the chip-bin, engine start/shutdownometimes compaction of a snow surface for tipping chips over. | Comprises preparations: the driver changing cabin, eventual relocation along the windrow and engine start/shutdown. |
Triangular (0.8, 2.0, 5.7) 1 | Triangular (0.6, 0.7, 0.9) 1 | ||
Terrain driving for relocation within the site | min | Number of windrows: 2–6: Power Function (0,50, 0.77) 2 ≥7: Power Function (0,75, 0.77) 2 | Number of windrows: 2–6: Power Function (0,22, 0.77) 2 ≥7: Power Function (0,34, 0.77) 2 |
Variable | Unit | Chipper-Truck | Self-Loading Chip-Truck | Shuttle Chip-Truck |
---|---|---|---|---|
Cargo volume | m3 | 102 | 120 | 140 |
Tare weight | tonnes | 33 | 30 | 22 |
Payload | tonnes | 31 | 34 | 42 |
Break-even moisture content (MC) | % | 46.1 | 42.6 | 45.8 |
Work element | ||||
Loading | min | − | Triangular (41, 53, 65) 1 | − |
Unloading (incl. load measurement and MC sampling) | min | Triangular (14, 18, 23) 1 | Triangular (14, 18, 23) 1 | Triangular (14, 18, 23) 1 |
Machine | Investment k€ | Useful life of Asset Years | Utilization Rate % | Cost € SMh−1 |
---|---|---|---|---|
Forwarder-mounted chipper | 547 | 5 | 89 | 159 |
Chipper-truck | 640 | 5 | 95 | 181 |
Self-loading chip-truck + trailer | 458 | 7 | 100 | 133 |
Shuttle chip-truck + trailer | 372 | 7 | 100 | 119 |
Wheel-loader | 208 | 5 | 95 | 55 |
Variable | Unit | Value |
---|---|---|
Total terminal area | ha | 2 |
Area devoted to storage | % | 90 |
Area paved | % | 100 |
Purchase price of land | € m−2 | 0.5 |
Gravel paved cost | € m−2 | 30 |
Depreciation time | year | 15 |
Interest rate | % | 5.5 |
Space utilization | dry t m−2 | 0.78 |
Material turnover | times per year | 1.5 |
Operational cost | € dry t−1 | 8.3 |
End-User | Demand Volume | Supply Alternative | Scenario |
---|---|---|---|
Combined heat and power plant (CHP) | Low (21,000 dry t) | Direct (only) | 1 |
Combined (direct and via-terminal) | 2 | ||
High (29,000 dry t) | Direct (only) | 3 | |
Combined (direct and via-terminal) | 4 | ||
Biorefinery (BR) | Low (21,000 dry t) | Direct (only) | 5 |
Combined (direct and via-terminal) | 6 | ||
High (29,000 dry t) | Direct (only) | 7 | |
Combined (direct and via-terminal) | 8 |
End-User | Combined Heat and Power Plant (CHP) | Biorefinery (BR) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Demand | Low | High | Low | High | ||||
Supply | Direct | Combined | Direct | Combined | Direct | Combined | Direct | Combined |
Scenario | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Mean cost (€ dry t−1) | 43.0 d,e (0.7) | 47.8 a (0.4) | 42.4 e (0.1) | 46.2 b (0.2) | 44.0 c (0.6) | 48.2 a (0.2) | 43.6 c,d (0.2) | 45.8 b (0.3) |
Annual cost (k€) | 914 a (10) | 1004 b (9) | 1161 c (11) | 1340 d (4) | 929 e (5) | 1014 b (3) | 1184 f (6) | 1335 d (3) |
Cost € Dry t−1 | Overall Productivity Dry t PMh−1 | Productivity Only Chipping Dry t PMh−1 | |
---|---|---|---|
Forwarder-mounted chipper | 23.8 (0.3) | 7.7 (0.1) | 14.4 (0.2) |
Self-loading chip-truck (per truck) | 20.4 (0.4) | 6.5 (0.1) | − |
Chipper-truck | 40.8 (1.2) | 4.7 (0.1) | 12.5 (0.1) |
Shuttle chip-truck | 6.5 (0.1) | 18.2 (0.3) | − |
Wheel-loader | 0.8 (0.0) | 71.9 (1.6) | − |
Terminal operation | 8.3 (0.0) | − | − |
End-User | Demand | Supply | Scenario | Annual Material Flows | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Direct | Via-Terminal | Missing | Sum Supplied | |||||||
Dry t | % | Dry t | % | Dry t | % | Dry t | ||||
CHP | Low | Direct | 1 | 21,272 (290) | 100 | − | − | 0 | 0 | 21,272 (290) |
CHP | Low | Combined | 2 | 17,713 (56) | 84 | 3293 (73) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 21,006 (41) |
CHP | High | Direct | 3 | 27,413 (192) | 92 | − | − | 2289 (282) | 8 | 27,413 (192) |
CHP | High | Combined | 4 | 24,100 (280) | 83 | 4927 (129) | 17 | 0 | 0 | 29,027 (159) |
BR | Low | Direct | 5 | 21,087 (351) | 100 | − | − | 0 | 0 | 21,087 (351) |
BR | Low | Combined | 6 | 17,764 (47) | 84 | 3259 (107) | 16 | 0 | 0 | 21,023 (87) |
BR | High | Direct | 7 | 27,158 (108) | 92 | − | − | 2483 (167) | 8 | 27,158 (108) |
BR | High | Combined | 8 | 24,662 (95) | 85 | 4486 (97) | 15 | 0 | 0 | 29,148 (116) |
End-User | Demand | Scenario | Mean Storage Time | Mean Storage Levels | Annual Dry Matter Losses | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Weeks | dry t | dry t | % of Annual Supply | |||
CHP | Low | 2 | 28 (0.5) | 2095 (18) | 547 (16) | 2.5 |
CHP | High | 4 | 15 (0.9) | 1563 (129) | 400 (20) | 1.4 |
BR | Low | 6 | 27 (0.5) | 1998 (35) | 488 (24) | 2.3 |
BR | High | 8 | 12 (0.6) | 1182 (66) | 279 (12) | 0.9 |
Scenario | Reference Cost | 25% Longer Trucking Distances | 50% Longer Trucking Distances | Low Integration (50% Longer Relocations) | High Integration (50% Shorter Relocations) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 | 42.2 | 44.9 (+6.0%) | 46.9 (+10.7%) | 43.2 (+1.9%) | 41.8 (−1.4%) |
4 | 46.2 | 48.2 (+4.3%) | 51.2 (+11.0%) | 47.1 (+2.0%) | 45.2 (−2.1%) |
7 | 43.6 | 45.8 (+5.0%) | 48.1 (+10.4%) | 44.4 (+1.7%) | 42.7 (−2.1%) |
8 | 45.8 | 48.3 (+5.3%) | 50.5 (+10.2%) | 46.6 (+1.8%) | 45.2 (−1.3%) |
Machine (Common for Scenarios 3, 4, 7, 8) | Reference Cost | 25% Longer Trucking Distances | 50% Longer Trucking Distances | Low Integration (50% Longer Relocations) | High Integration (50% Shorter Relocations) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forwarder-mounted chipper | 23.7 | − | − | 24.5 (+3.6%) | 22.7 (−3.9%) |
Self-loading chip-truck | 20.4 | 22.3 (+9.7%) | 24.2 (+19.1%) | − | − |
Chipper-truck | 40.2 | 43.4 (+7.9%) | 46.2 (+15.0%) | 40.4 (+0.5%) | 40.1 (−0.3%) |
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Fernandez-Lacruz, R.; Eriksson, A.; Bergström, D. Simulation-Based Cost Analysis of Industrial Supply of Chips from Logging Residues and Small-Diameter Trees. Forests 2020, 11, 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010001
Fernandez-Lacruz R, Eriksson A, Bergström D. Simulation-Based Cost Analysis of Industrial Supply of Chips from Logging Residues and Small-Diameter Trees. Forests. 2020; 11(1):1. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010001
Chicago/Turabian StyleFernandez-Lacruz, Raul, Anders Eriksson, and Dan Bergström. 2020. "Simulation-Based Cost Analysis of Industrial Supply of Chips from Logging Residues and Small-Diameter Trees" Forests 11, no. 1: 1. https://doi.org/10.3390/f11010001