Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Bark Beetle Disturbances in the Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. Forests of Southeast Kazakhstan
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Area in Southeast Kazakhstan
2.2. Field and Laboratory Methods
2.3. Dendrochronological Detection of Bark Beetle Outbreaks
- A growth release was determined to have occurred when the 10-year running mean of ring widths increased by 50% or more and growth was sustained above the pre-release level for 10 or more years, with single-year deviations permitted.
- The initial year of the growth release was dated as the first year in which the growth increment exceeded the previous 10-year mean by 50%. Thus, each event was detected using the running mean, but dated with respect to the first year of the sustained growth increase.
- The final year of the growth release was defined as the year prior to the year in which growth returned to the pre-release rate (i.e., the last year of elevated growth). Two types of releases were included as dated events but excluded from release-duration computations: (a) Growth of released trees sometimes plateaued, without declining, at a rate higher than the pre-release average, which occurs when released suppressed trees reach better canopy positions, or when the disturbance occurs near the end of the chronology; (b) Individual trees occasionally incurred multiple releases, with later releases occurring before growth stabilized from the initial release.
- A minimum time of 15 years between initial release years was used to distinguish discrete events.
2.4. Statistical Comparisons
3. Results
3.1. Disturbance Events
3.2. Storm Damage
4. Discussion
4.1. Doubling of Disturbance Frequency ca. 1965
4.1.1. Non-Native Bark Beetles
4.1.2. Warming Climate
4.2. Outbreak Potential
4.3. Reconstruction Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Plot | Innermost Ring Date | RBAR | Mean dbh (cm) | CVM (dbh) | QMD (cm) | Elev. (m) | Slope (%) | Aspect (Degrees) | Mortality (%) | Density (tph) | Release Frequency | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1930–1965 | >1965 | Combined | |||||||||||
No damage in 2011 storms | |||||||||||||
BA1 | 1863 | 0.473 | 32.0 | 78.9 | 40.1 | 2471 | 9 | 326 | 15.4 | 260 | 0.029 | 0.114 | 0.077 |
BA2 | 1750 | 0.607 | 26.5 | 62.1 | 30.9 | 2342 | 18 | 8 | 15.0 | 400 | 0.143 | 0.143 | 0.143 |
BA3 | 1843 | 0.422 | 27.2 | 94.1 | 36.8 | 2389 | 2 | 326 | 17.6 | 340 | 0.114 | 0.114 | 0.114 |
BU1 | 1879 | 0.600 | 52.0 | 48.6 | 57.3 | 2016 | 54 | 272 | 8.3 | 240 | 0.000 | 0.029 | 0.016 |
BU2 | 1872 | 0.563 | 32.7 | 71.4 | 39.4 | 2082 | 48 | 88 | 0.0 | 200 | 0.029 | 0.114 | 0.077 |
BU3 | 1868 | 0.431 | 85.8 | 66.9 | 101.6 | 1843 | 70 | 55 | 0.0 | n/a | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0.029 |
CH2 | 1873 | 0.458 | 32.5 | 83.2 | 41.1 | 2392 | 36 | 270 | 12.5 | 160 | 0.057 | 0.086 | 0.073 |
CH3 | 1916 | 0.431 | 20.3 | 113.6 | 30.3 | 2388 | n/a | 0 | 4.5 | 440 | 0.000 | 0.086 | 0.049 |
ME2 | 1865 | 0.590 | 34.4 | 33.4 | 36.1 | 1739 | 33 | 97 | 19.2 | 520 | 0.143 | 0.171 | 0.159 |
ME4 | 1857 | 0.612 | 42.8 | 46.9 | 46.5 | 2387 | 46 | 42 | 7.1 | 280 | 0.057 | 0.057 | 0.057 |
mean | 0.519 | 38.6 | # 69.9 | 46.0 | 2205 | 35.1 | ## 10.0 | # 316 | * 0.060 | * 0.094 | 0.079 | ||
StDev | 0.082 | 18.8 | 23.9 | 21.0 | 263 | 22.2 | 7.0 | 119 | 0.055 | 0.047 | 0.047 | ||
Damaged in 2011 storms | |||||||||||||
BU4 | 1877 | 0.552 | 35.9 | 46.5 | 39.3 | 1943 | 26 | 22 | 45.5 | 220 | 0.057 | 0.143 | 0.106 |
BU6 | 1894 | 0.558 | 42.0 | 41.1 | 45.1 | 2029 | 32 | 328 | 80.0 | 200 | 0.057 | 0.086 | 0.073 |
CH4 | 1853 | 0.607 | 49.5 | 44.6 | 53.9 | 2362 | 40 | 250 | 71.4 | 280 | 0.029 | 0.229 | 0.142 |
CH5 | 1818 | 0.584 | 53.1 | 23.5 | 54.4 | 2400 | 28 | 278 | 100.0 | 300 | 0.086 | 0.171 | 0.134 |
ME1 | 1863 | 0.671 | 46.9 | 63.3 | 54.7 | 1873 | 28 | 38 | 72.7 | 220 | 0.029 | 0.086 | 0.061 |
ME3 | 1869 | 0.532 | 25.9 | 70.2 | 31.3 | 1959 | 36 | 320 | 58.3 | 240 | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0.029 |
ME6 | 1884 | 0.438 | 45.1 | 71.6 | 53.9 | 1938 | 38 | 282 | 28.6 | 140 | 0.000 | 0.029 | 0.016 |
mean | 0.563 | 42.6 | # 51.5 | 47.5 | 2072 | 32.6 | ## 65.2 | # 229 | * 0.041 | * 0.110 | 0.080 | ||
StDev | 0.072 | 9.2 | 17.6 | 9.3 | 216 | 5.5 | 23.5 | 53 | 0.028 | 0.074 | 0.049 | ||
All plots combined | |||||||||||||
mean | 0.537 | 40.3 | 62.3 | 46.6 | 2150 | 34.0 | 32.7 | 278 | ** 0.052 | ** 0.101 | 0.080 | ||
StDev | 0.079 | 15.3 | 22.9 | 16.8 | 247 | 16.6 | 31.9 | 103 | 0.045 | 0.058 | 0.046 |
1930–1965 | after 1965 | Combined | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
r | sig. | r | sig. | r | sig. | |||
mean DBH | −0.247 | 0.340 | −0.223 | 0.390 | −0.243 | 0.347 | ||
CVM(DBH) | −0.306 | 0.232 | −0.359 | 0.158 | −0.384 | 0.128 | ||
QMD | −0.315 | 0.218 | −0.285 | 0.266 | −0.339 | 0.184 | ||
elevation | 0.094 | 0.719 | 0.309 | 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.315 | ||
slope | −0.501 | 0.048 | −0.416 | 0.109 | −0.507 | 0.045 | ||
stand density | 0.579 | 0.017 | 0.430 | 0.096 | 0.560 | 0.024 | ||
mortality | 0.045 | 0.865 | 0.364 | 0.151 | 0.276 | 0.283 | ||
growth release frequency after 1965 | 0.513 | 0.035 |
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Lynch, A.M.; Mukhamadiev, N.S.; O’Connor, C.D.; Panyushkina, I.P.; Ashikbaev, N.A.; Sagitov, A.O. Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Bark Beetle Disturbances in the Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. Forests of Southeast Kazakhstan. Forests 2019, 10, 912. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100912
Lynch AM, Mukhamadiev NS, O’Connor CD, Panyushkina IP, Ashikbaev NA, Sagitov AO. Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Bark Beetle Disturbances in the Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. Forests of Southeast Kazakhstan. Forests. 2019; 10(10):912. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100912
Chicago/Turabian StyleLynch, Ann M., Nurjan S. Mukhamadiev, Christopher D. O’Connor, Irina P. Panyushkina, Nursagim A. Ashikbaev, and Abay O. Sagitov. 2019. "Tree-Ring Reconstruction of Bark Beetle Disturbances in the Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey. Forests of Southeast Kazakhstan" Forests 10, no. 10: 912. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10100912