1. Introduction
In recent years, the advances in technology, the reduction in manufacturing costs and the growing concern for the environment, unconventional renewable energy sources have had a great penetration in electrical power systems. For example, in Colombia, it is expected that 1050 MW of wind energy will come into operation by 2023, according to information published by the Mining Energy Planning Unit (UPME) [
1]. The start-up of these new non-conventional renewable energy sources poses a challenge to power systems, with regard to the dispatch of generation resources. One of the biggest drawbacks of energy sources such as solar or wind is their high variation over time and their stochastic nature. In addition, advances in technology such as large-scale energy storage, the massification of electric vehicles and the increase in distributed generation must be taken into account when making economic dispatches.
According to the review of the state of the art, it is possible to address the problem of uncertainties of power systems with different approaches, whether probabilistic, possibilistic or probabilistic–possibilistic hybrids [
2]. Economic dispatch problems are approached mainly by probabilistic methods, while possibilistic and probabilistic–possibilistic methods are especially useful for generating generation forecasts [
3]. In an effort to quantify the impact of uncertainties in power systems, from the calculation of expected values it has been possible to determine the cost of uncertainty in non-conventional renewable energy sources, starting from the probability distributions associated with the random variables that affect the behavior of the system. Arévalo et al. [
4] presents the calculation of the cost of uncertainty associated with solar and wind plants and the behavior of electric vehicles; for this case it was assumed that the irradiance for solar plants was associated with a lognormal function, the wind speed with a Rayleigh distribution and the power delivered by electric vehicles had a Gaussian behavior. Complementing the work on the cost of uncertainty, in the article written by Molina et al. [
5], the cost of uncertainty was calculated for a run-of-river hydroelectric power station, whose generation depends on the flow of the river from which the station feeds; it is exposed that the behavior of river flows is associated with a Gumbell distribution.
In many cases, you may not have historical measurements of the resource you want to take advantage of (for example, in remote, non-interconnected areas). For these cases, a uniform distribution of the resource to be exploited could be assumed. Bernal et al. [
6] propose the calculation of the cost of uncertainty for uniform distributions. The uncertainty in the loads can be modeled by a normal distribution [
2]. Vargas et al. [
7] describe the calculation of the uncertainty cost for controllable loads. The uncertainty cost calculation for controllable loads is also valid for any other load, since controllable loads have normal behavior. It is necessary to clarify that the results of the uncertainty cost functions in the previously mentioned works [
4,
5,
6,
7] were validated using the Monte Carlo method. Now, to achieve a reliable operation, and so that the beginning of the operation about non-conventional renewable energy sources can be reflected in an economic benefit, it is necessary to perform Optimal Power Flows (OPFs) which consider costs of uncertainty. In the literature, there are models of optimal power flow that consider different costs of uncertainty and are solved analytically [
3,
8] or through heuristic techniques [
9,
10,
11,
12,
13,
14].
The OPFs have different applications and are generally differentiated by objective functions, restrictions, the type of network to be optimized, and so forth. In relation to OPF in Hetzer et al. [
3] an optimal power dispatch is presented considering two wind generators and their associated uncertainty cost in a system with two conventional generators. The work from Hetzer et al. was supplemented by Zhao et al. [
11] when solving an OPF using particle swarm optimization (PSO), considering the uncertainty costs of electric vehicles and wind generators in a 118 node IEEE power system. From the previously mentioned works [
3,
4,
11], Arévalo et al. [
9] show the calculation of an OPF that takes into account the cost of uncertainty in wind and solar generators and that of the large-scale entry of electric vehicles. In this work, the 118-node IEEE system was used and the PSO algorithm was used to solve the optimization problem.
Torres and Rivera [
15] propose the calculation of an OPF in various operating scenarios of the system. In their work, a simplified model of the Colombian network was considered, as well as the future agglomeration of solar and wind resources on the Caribbean coast [
16]. These same authors, in a different work [
12], showed the calculation of an OPF using the DEEPSO method (combination of particle swarm and differential evolution) for the IEEE system of 118 nodes with costs of uncertainty from wind generators, solar plants and electric vehicles. The optimal power flows mentioned so far have been formulated for large systems and their sources of uncertainty have been solar radiation, the speed of time and/or the delivery of energy to the grid by electric vehicles. However, with the penetration of distributed generation, the possibility arises that some clients of the system satisfy part or all of their demand for a certain time, becoming a controllable load. Guzmán et al. [
13] describe the controllable loads and their types of contract with the energy marketer. In addition to this, they calculate an OPF solved by the DEEPSO algorithm where they take into account controllable loads, position of the transformer taps and compensation in the IEEE system of 118 nodes.
The uncertainty cost functions, the basis for calculating the uncertainty costs, are usually complex since they appear to be non-elementary integrals [
4,
5,
7]. One possible way to deal with this difficulty is the one proposed by Martinez and Rivera [
8], where a quadratic approximation of the uncertainty cost of electric vehicles, solar, wind and run-of-river plants is made to carry out an analytical calculation of the OPF using MATPOWER. Due to the reduction in the costs of equipment for the generation of energy from non-conventional renewable sources, it is now possible that small consumers of energy at medium and low voltages can also generate energy on a small scale, giving rise to the appearance of microgrids. Peña et al. [
14] performed the calculation of an OPF for a microgrid with different sources of uncertainty where there was also energy storage. Using a genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) they managed to minimize the cost of power generation and maximize the useful life of the batteries. Similarly, Li et al. [
10] propose an OPF where the operating cost of a microgrid with batteries is minimized. Unlike the other works mentioned so far, Li et al. did not use the Monte Carlo method for the validation of their results, but instead used the method of the estimated point. In this way, the novelty of this paper is in including the marginal uncertainty cost functions (MUCFs) in the algorithms for optimal power flow extended to controllable renewable systems and controllable loads, since MUCFs have been tested with Monte Carlo simulations.
5. Conclusions
In this paper, an optimal power flow was developed that takes into account the uncertainties produced by the penetration of renewable energy sources and controllable loads. It was observed that including the Jacobian (First derivatives) and the Hessian (Second derivatives) of the uncertainty cost functions in the optimal power flow model brings great benefits, since it allows the use of analytical techniques for the determination of active and reactive power dispatches. The main benefit of analytical techniques over the metaheuristic techniques used in the state-of-the-art for the solution of the optimal power flow is the reduction of the computation times that was evidenced in all the cases analyzed, as shown in
Table 13. Additionally, it was observed that the IPOPT solver did not converge to a solution in several of the systems and scenarios proposed. On the other hand, the Matlab FMINCON solver converged in all cases to a solution. The MIPS solver did not converge in scenario 1 of the nine-node system.
On the other hand, heuristic methods were used in order to validate the results obtained through analytical methods and very close responses were achieved for the active power dispatches in the IEEE systems of nine and 57 nodes, as shown in
Table 5,
Table 6,
Table 7 and
Table 8 and
Table 13. However, for the 118-node system, the heuristic methods yielded significantly different dispatch values with respect to the analytical methods; in addition, the dispatches produced by the analytical methods produced a lower value in the objective function. Finally, the presented formulation and its respective solution allow network operators to have a tool to manage the controllable renewable resources found in the network, satisfying the different physical restrictions of the system.
In this way, in this paper the marginal costs of uncertainty are used to determine the active power values that a particular generator with uncertainty must deliver to minimize the uncertainty costs. The field of optimization in electrical power systems is in continuous development. In the case of controllable renewable sources and controllable loads, it is possible to extend this analysis to optimal power flows in DC. It is also possible to use the flow extension optimal power for controllable renewable systems and controllable loads and problems such as Unit Commitment or Security Constraints Optimal Power Flow.
To solve the proposed OPF, when controllable renewable systems and loads are considered, it is also necessary to take into account all the constraints that can affect the power system. The solution would allow the system to work between specified constraints considering uncertainty cost functions, making this problem very complex. Including all constraints in the traditional OPF interior point solution method could prevent convergence and tackling the problem using metaheuristic strategies makes the problem hard to solve within short periods of time (critical clearing times of the contingency in the case of the security constraint optimal power flow) without high computational power.
In this study, the developed research relies on two aspects: the first is analytical methods, using marginal uncertainty cost functions which allow us to use the interior point method for the optimization problem. The second is the solution of the problem using metaheuristic methods, in cases where it is not possible to determine the marginal cost functions. The use of marginal uncertainty cost functions (MUCF) strategies can be employed in small power systems, using strong assumptions of the analytical modeling of cost functions, which makes some of the applications infeasible in real operations or very costly in terms of hardware implementation for real systems. As a solution for those limitations, future research will address the problem using the potential of Parallel and Heterogeneous Computing (PHC).