1. Introduction
Composite materials are currently one of the most important groups of engineering materials because they allow functional properties to be designed through the deliberate selection of the matrix, reinforcing phases and functional additives. Their advantage over traditional homogeneous materials results primarily from the possibility of combining properties that are difficult to achieve simultaneously in a single material, such as adequate strength, wear resistance, thermal stability, vibration damping, low mass and environmental resistance [
1,
2,
3]. In components operating under frictional contact, it is particularly important to control not only mechanical properties, but also the tribological response, including the coefficient of friction, wear rate, fade resistance, ability to form a transfer layer and stability under variable load and temperature conditions [
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
7].
In the automotive industry, composites are widely used in both structural components and functional systems. In lightweight vehicle structures, they are used mainly to reduce mass while maintaining adequate stiffness and strength [
1,
8]. A particularly important application group is represented by composite friction materials, which are used in brake pads, brake linings, clutches and other components that transmit loads through frictional contact [
1,
3,
9,
10]. In these applications, the material cannot be evaluated solely based on static strength. It must provide stable friction, controlled wear, resistance to high temperature, adequate heat conduction, limited emission of wear particles and an acceptable level of noise and vibration [
4,
5,
6,
7,
11]. For this reason, friction materials are typical multi-component composites in which each constituent performs a specific function.
Modern brake pads are usually composite materials containing a binder, reinforcing fibres, fillers, and wear and friction modifiers [
2,
3,
12]. The binder is most often a phenolic resin or another thermosetting resin, which ensures the integrity of the material and holds the constituents within one structure. Fibres, such as aramid, steel, carbon, mineral or natural fibres, are responsible for mechanical reinforcement, crack resistance and dimensional stability [
13,
14,
15]. Fillers, including barite, fly ash, minerals or industrial wastes, are used to control density, thermal conductivity, cost and processing stability [
2,
16]. Abrasive constituents, such as metal oxides, ceramics, steel or cast iron, increase friction efficiency and the ability to clean the counter surface, but they may also intensify wear [
7,
11,
17,
18]. In contrast, lubricating or film-forming constituents, such as graphite, copper, sulphides, PTFE and other additives with low shear strength, stabilise friction, reduce adhesion and promote the formation of a transfer layer [
7,
19].
From the point of view of brake-system operation, the formation of the so-called third body and tribological layers at the pad–disc interface is particularly important. Studies of the surfaces of organic friction materials have shown that real contact does not occur over the entire nominal area, but through local primary and secondary plateaus formed by compaction and transformation of wear products [
4,
5,
6,
11]. The nature of these layers depends on material composition, temperature, pressure, sliding velocity and running-in history. Therefore, the effectiveness of a given additive does not result solely from its intrinsic material properties, but also from its contribution to the formation and stabilisation of the transfer layer. For this reason, the design of friction materials is a multi-criteria task in which mechanical, thermal, chemical and tribological properties must be considered simultaneously [
2,
4,
6,
11].
Copper has historically been one of the most important additives used in friction materials. Its presence improves the thermal conductivity of the material, stabilises the coefficient of friction, reduces local overheating, decreases the tendency to generate noise and promotes the formation of beneficial layers on the friction surface [
7,
19]. Österle et al. showed that the role of copper is not limited to heat conduction, but also includes participation in tribolayer formation and contact stabilisation [
6]. Therefore, replacing copper with a single constituent is difficult because its thermal, lubricating and stabilising functions must be reproduced simultaneously. At the same time, the emission of copper-containing wear particles has become an important environmental issue. Particles generated by brake-pad wear can enter air, soil and water, and their chemical composition, size and toxicity have been the subject of numerous studies [
17,
18,
20,
21]. For this reason, the development of copper-free or low-copper friction materials is currently one of the most important research directions in braking systems with reduced copper emissions. The significance of copper in brake pads and the need to develop substitutes have been confirmed by studies on Cu-free brake pads and particle emissions from copper-free materials.
Copper performs several beneficial functions in brake friction materials. It improves thermal conductivity, contributes to contact stabilisation and may act as a solid-lubricant-type constituent. Therefore, replacing copper requires a functional combination of additives rather than a simple one-to-one substitution. In the present study, aluminium and polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE) were selected as a model replacement system intended to reproduce, at least partially, the two main functions of copper. PTFE was introduced mainly as a low-shear and anti-adhesive constituent capable of supporting the formation of a lubricating transfer layer, whereas aluminium was introduced as a thermally conductive and relatively stiff metallic constituent. Thus, the expected effect of the Al/PTFE system is based on a functional division of copper’s role: PTFE contributes primarily to solid-lubrication behaviour, while aluminium contributes mainly to heat dissipation and contact stabilisation. The selection of the Al/PTFE system was additionally motivated by our previous experimental study, which demonstrated that aluminium and PTFE may partially reproduce selected tribological functions traditionally associated with copper in friction materials. Therefore, the present work focuses on this particular copper-free system as a representative case study for validating the proposed wear-prediction methodology.
It should be noted that replacing copper with PTFE-containing systems does not automatically eliminate all environmental concerns associated with brake friction materials. PTFE is a fluoropolymer and is therefore discussed in the broader context of PFAS-related regulatory and environmental debates [
22,
23]. For this reason, the Al/PTFE system analysed in this work should be treated as a model copper-free formulation used to evaluate the proposed wear-prediction methodology, rather than as a final environmentally neutral replacement for copper. A full assessment of its suitability would require additional studies on particle emissions, possible thermal degradation products and life-cycle aspects.
Research on copper-free friction composites is being conducted in several main directions. The first involves replacing copper with other metallic or conductive constituents, such as stainless steel, steel swarf, stainless-steel particles, metallic fibres, graphite or mineral materials [
19,
20,
21,
24,
25,
26]. Aranganathan and Bijwe proposed environmentally friendly copper-free friction materials based on new functional ingredients and showed that proper additive selection can provide stable tribological properties [
24]. Mahale, Bijwe and Sinha investigated the possibility of replacing copper with stainless-steel swarf, indicating the potential of this additive as a substitute for the metallic constituent [
25]. Subsequent studies also analysed the effect of plasma treatment of stainless steel on the wear resistance of copper-free materials [
26,
27]. Kalel et al. demonstrated that the appropriate selection of the type and morphology of stainless-steel particles can be crucial for obtaining acceptable friction and wear properties in Cu-free materials [
28].
The second research direction concerns the use of natural, waste-derived or plant-origin additives as reinforcing constituents or fillers. The literature describes friction materials containing hemp fibres, flax fibres, organic fibres, fly ash and plant wastes [
13,
14,
15,
16,
29,
30]. These studies result not only from the need to eliminate copper, but also from the broader trend of reducing toxic or energy-intensive constituents in friction materials. Naidu et al. investigated brake composites reinforced with hemp fibres and indicated the potential of natural fibres for reducing the environmental impact of friction materials [
29]. Borawski et al. showed that flax fibres can be considered as an alternative to conventional aramid fibres in composite friction materials [
13]. In turn, Mohanty and Chugh, as well as Idris et al., analysed the possibility of using fly ash and plant wastes to develop more environmentally friendly friction materials [
9,
16]. These studies show that the development of friction materials increasingly combines tribological requirements with environmental and economic aspects.
Borawski et al. have also made an important contribution to research on composite friction materials. In a review paper on composites in vehicle braking systems, the authors identified key development areas, including composition design, tribological testing, emission of wear products and modelling of phenomena occurring in braking systems [
1]. Other studies analysed the effect of brake-pad service time on tribological properties [
31], compared results obtained using pin-on-disc and ball-cratering methods [
32], investigated the effect of the shape of the copper constituent on friction-material properties [
33] and assessed the possibility of replacing copper with a PTFE/aluminium system [
14]. The latter work is directly related to the subject of the present article, as it concerns the use of aluminium and PTFE as functional substitutes for copper in composite friction materials. It was shown that the Al/PTFE system affects the coefficient of friction and wear rate, which justifies further research aimed at quantitatively describing the relationship between composition and wear resistance [
14]. These sources confirm the relevance of composition design and test-method validation for friction materials used in brakes.
Most studies on composite friction materials are experimental in nature. Pin-on-disc, ball-cratering, brake-test rigs and dynamometers are commonly used, followed by analysis of the coefficient of friction, wear intensity, temperature, surface morphology and composition of wear products [
9,
11,
15,
16,
17,
18,
20,
21,
29,
30,
31,
32]. Experimental testing is indispensable because it enables verification of the real behaviour of the material under frictional contact. However, its limitations include cost, time consumption and the need to perform many test series for each change in composition. In multi-component materials, the number of possible additive combinations is very large; therefore, experimental testing alone is not sufficient for the efficient design of new formulations. Models are needed to narrow the search space, identify the most promising compositions and better understand the influence of particular groups of constituents on wear.
In the literature, friction materials have been modelled using various approaches. The most classical basis for describing wear is Archard’s law, in which the wear volume is related to the normal load, sliding distance and wear resistance of the material [
34]. In contact analyses, Hertz theory and classical contact mechanics are also frequently used to estimate the size of the contact zone, contact pressure and the effect of the elastic properties of the materials [
35,
36]. More advanced approaches include finite element models, coupled thermo-mechanical models, models with updating of the worn surface geometry, regression models and models based on test-rig data [
34,
37,
38,
39,
40,
41]. AbuBakar and Ouyang applied the finite element method to predict friction-material wear and analyse brake squeal [
42]. Hatam and Khalkhali performed simulations and sensitivity analyses of brake-pad wear for selected parameters [
35]. Sawczuk et al. proposed a model of mass wear of railway disc-brake friction pads based on test-rig data [
36], whereas Grześ and Kuciej developed a finite element model coupling thermal, structural and wear phenomena in a braking system [
39]. Such approaches are useful because they allow the analysis of pressure, temperature, stress and wear-depth distributions that are difficult or impossible to measure directly.
Despite the development of numerical methods, a gap still exists between detailed modelling of the braking system and practical design of the friction-material composition. Finite element models usually require extensive input data, system geometry, boundary conditions and substantial computational effort. Regression models, in turn, often describe a specific dataset well, but their physical interpretability is limited. For friction materials, an intermediate approach is therefore particularly valuable, combining the simplicity of empirical models with selected material descriptors, such as the fraction of hard phases, the fraction of film-forming phases, effective hardness, elastic properties and contact parameters. This makes it possible not only to fit the model to experimental data, but also to interpret which compositional features are responsible for changes in wear rate.
The novelty of the present work lies in combining original ball-cratering wear-test results with the development and comparison of several calibrated predictive models based on material composition and effective material descriptors. In contrast to purely experimental studies, in which only prepared formulations are evaluated, the present work proposes a procedure for predicting the wear-rate coefficient from the fractions of constituents. At the same time, unlike advanced finite element models, the aim was not to reproduce the full geometry of the braking system, but to create a practical tool supporting friction-material formulation design. Particular importance is attached to the comparison of four models with different levels of complexity: a hard-phase/tribological-film model, a logarithmic model with an Al/PTFE interaction term, an Archard-type model extended by effective hardness and Hertzian pressure, and a simplified linear composition-based model. This comparison makes it possible to assess whether increased physical interpretability and the introduction of contact parameters improve wear-prediction accuracy.
This article presents a study of composite friction materials in which a conventional copper-containing formulation was compared with three copper-free compositions based on different aluminium/PTFE ratios.
Section 2 describes the composition and preparation of the materials, the ball-cratering test procedure and the experimental dry wear results. The following section presents the modelling assumptions, the description of four predictive models, the calibration procedure and the comparison of prediction accuracy. Finally, the modelling results are compared with the experimental data in order to identify the model that best describes the effect of compositional changes on abrasive wear rate. This approach aims not only to evaluate a specific Al/PTFE system as a substitute for copper, but also to propose a methodology supporting the design of new copper-free composite friction materials.
3. Predictive Wear Modelling and Model Calibration
The experimental results presented in the previous section were used as the basis for developing and evaluating predictive models of abrasive wear. The purpose of this stage was not only to reproduce the measured values of the wear-rate coefficient, but also to assess whether the effect of compositional changes, especially copper replacement by the Al/PTFE system, can be described using relatively simple relationships based on composition and material properties. For this reason, four model variants were formulated and compared. Each model used the material composition and selected effective properties as input variables, whereas the experimentally determined wear-rate coefficient was used as the reference output for calibration and validation.
The modelling procedure consisted of four main steps: conversion of mass fractions into volume fractions, calculation of effective material descriptors, determination of the raw model response and calibration of the predicted wear-rate coefficient against selected experimental data. The calibrated models were then evaluated by comparing predicted and experimental values using standard error measures.
3.1. General Modelling Approach
The modelling stage was designed as a calibrated screening procedure for comparing the response of the investigated copper-containing and copper-free friction materials. The abrasive wear-rate coefficient determined from the ball-cratering tests was used as the reference output. In the present modelling framework, this coefficient was used only as an apparent experimental descriptor for calibration and comparison within the investigated material system and test configuration. Material composition, phase grouping and selected effective descriptors were used as input variables. The density, hardness and elastic-property values used for the mass-to-volume conversion and Hertzian contact calculations are summarised in
Table A1. Detailed equations for converting mass fractions into volume fractions, calculating effective hardness and determining the raw model response are provided in
Appendix A.
3.2. Overview of Predictive Models
Four model variants were considered. They were not intended to replace classical wear theories, but to provide semi-empirical predictive formulations suitable for ranking and comparing model structures within the investigated composition range. The complete mathematical formulation of the models is given in
Appendix A, whereas their conceptual assumptions are summarised in
Table 6.
For this reason, the proposed M0–M3 relationships should be understood as calibrated semi-empirical formulations developed for comparative screening of the analysed friction-material compositions. They are not universal wear laws and should not be extrapolated beyond the investigated composition range, loading condition and identified wear mode without additional validation.
Model M0 represents the competition between abrasive hard phases and film-forming constituents. Model M1 describes the interaction between aluminium and PTFE using a logarithmic empirical formulation. Model M2 is a modified Hertz–Archard model that combines an Archard-type wear description with effective hardness and Hertzian contact descriptors. Model M3 is a simplified linear composition-based model introduced as a reference variant.
3.3. Model Calibration Procedure
Each model first produced an uncalibrated value of the wear-rate coefficient. This raw response was then corrected using the same scaling calibration coefficient. In the final comparison, specimens S1 and S4 were used as calibration points because they represented the copper-containing reference material and the copper-free formulation with the highest aluminium and lowest PTFE content, respectively. Specimens S2 and S3 were not used to determine the calibration coefficient and were treated as validation points for assessing whether the calibrated models could reproduce the trend caused by changes in the Al/PTFE ratio. The analytical expressions for the calibration coefficient and the optional weighting procedure are presented in
Appendix A.
3.4. Model Parameters Adopted in the Calculations
The structural and empirical parameters used in the predictive models were treated as model-shape parameters rather than universal material constants. Their role was to define the relative sensitivity of each formulation to hard/abrasive phases, film-forming constituents, effective hardness (Heff) and the Al/PTFE interaction. The absolute level of the predicted wear-rate coefficient was adjusted separately by the calibration coefficient C, determined from the selected calibration specimens.
This approach was adopted to reduce the risk of overfitting to the limited number of tested material formulations and to preserve the comparability of the analysed model variants. The complete list of adopted parameters, their values and the physical interpretation is provided in
Appendix A,
Table A2.
It should also be noted that
Heff used in the models was not measured directly as the hardness of the whole composite. It was calculated from constituent properties using the mixture rules described in
Appendix A.2 and should therefore be interpreted as an equivalent model descriptor. The detailed justification for this approach, including the selected harmonic mixing rule, is given in
Appendix A.
3.5. Prediction Accuracy and Model Comparison
The predictive capability of the four proposed models was evaluated by comparing the predicted values of the abrasive wear-rate coefficient with the corresponding experimental values obtained for specimens S1–S4. The comparison was performed using standard error measures, i.e., mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias and maximum absolute percentage error. These measures were used both to assess the average accuracy of the models and to evaluate prediction stability for individual specimens.
Four error measures were used for the quantitative assessment of prediction accuracy. For each specimen, the relative error between the predicted value
kc,pred,i and the experimental value
kc,exp,i was calculated. The mean absolute percentage error, MAPE, describes the average value of the relative error regardless of its sign:
The root mean square error, RMSE, defines the absolute scale of deviations in the units of the wear-rate coefficient:
The mean bias was calculated as the average difference between the predicted and experimental values:
In addition, the maximum absolute percentage error was determined in order to assess the largest local deviation of the model from the experimental result:
where
n denotes the number of specimens used to evaluate model accuracy. In the present case,
n = 4 because the comparison was performed for specimens S1–S4. The calibration coefficient was determined from S1 and S4, whereas S2 and S3 were used as validation points for assessing the ability of the models to reproduce the compositional trend within the investigated Al/PTFE range.
The values of the main accuracy measures are summarised in
Table 7. Among the analysed variants, Model M2 showed the best agreement with the experimental data. It achieved the lowest values of MAPE (1.5%), RMSE (2.181 × 10
−14 m
2·N
−1) and maximum absolute error (4.3%). Moreover, all predictions of Model M2 were within the ±5% error band. This result suggests that the inclusion of effective hardness and contact-related descriptors may contribute to improved predictive capability. However, because the analysed models differ simultaneously in their mathematical structure, constitutive descriptors and adopted parameters, the present dataset does not allow the individual contribution of each modelling assumption to be isolated. In contrast, Model M3 had the weakest overall accuracy, with the highest MAPE (7.4%), RMSE (11.496 × 10
−14 m
2·N
−1) and the largest maximum error (19.2%). The lowest absolute bias was obtained for Model M0, indicating the smallest systematic deviation between prediction and experiment.
A more detailed comparison of errors for individual specimens is presented in
Table 8. The percentage prediction errors show that the models differed not only in their average accuracy, but also in their behaviour for specific material compositions. Model M2 was the most stable variant because it provided the most accurate prediction for specimens S1, S2 and S4, and its error remained within ±5% for all specimens. Model M0 gave the best result only for specimen S3, but exceeded the ±5% band for specimens S1 and S4. Model M1 showed intermediate accuracy, with three predictions within the ±5% limit, whereas Model M3 generated the largest deviations, particularly for specimen S2, for which the error was −19.2%.
The overall ability of the models to satisfy the adopted ±5% acceptance criterion is summarised in
Table 9. Model M2 met this condition for all four analysed specimens, whereas Model M1 did so for three specimens. Models M0 and M3 were within the ±5% band for only two specimens. For Model M0, exceedances occurred for specimens S1 and S4, whereas for Model M3 they occurred for S2 and S3. This comparison confirms that Model M2 exhibited the highest prediction stability for the individual material compositions.
The supplementary ranking comparison is presented in
Table 10.
It includes the best and second-best models according to selected accuracy criteria, i.e., MAPE, RMSE, absolute bias and maximum absolute error. Model M2 achieved the best result for three of the four criteria: MAPE, RMSE and maximum error. The lowest absolute bias was obtained for Model M0, which indicates the smallest average prediction shift relative to the experimental data. However, considering all criteria jointly, Model M2 can be regarded as the variant with the best overall accuracy.
A graphical comparison of the main error measures is shown in
Figure 4. The chart shows that Model M2 was characterised by the lowest MAPE and the lowest maximum absolute error. The highest values of both measures were obtained for Model M3, confirming that the simplified linear description of composition was insufficient for accurately reproducing the experimental results.
The distribution of percentage errors for individual specimens is presented in
Figure 5. This chart makes it possible to identify which material compositions were overestimated or underestimated by the individual models. Model M2 remained within the ±5% limits for all specimens, whereas the largest local deviation was obtained for Model M3 in the case of specimen S2.
A comparison of the experimental and predicted values of the wear-rate coefficient is shown in
Figure 6. The results indicate that the predictions of Model M2 reproduced the experimental trend best for all specimens. Model M1 preserved the general trend of changes, but clearly underestimated the value for specimen S2. Model M0 reproduced specimens S2 and S3 well, but showed larger deviations for S1 and S4. The weakest trend reproduction was obtained for Model M3.
The aggregated model ranking is shown in
Figure 7. This ranking combines information from several accuracy criteria and enables a concise assessment of the overall model quality. The lowest, and therefore best, ranking value was obtained for Model M2. Model M3 was ranked last, which is consistent with the results obtained from MAPE, RMSE and maximum error.
In summary, both the tabular and graphical analyses indicate that Model M2 provided the best agreement with the experimental results within the present dataset and calibration scheme. This improved performance may be associated with the inclusion of effective hardness and contact-related descriptors; however, because the analysed models differ simultaneously in structure, descriptors and adopted parameters, the present study does not allow the improvement to be attributed to a single modelling assumption.
Because the dataset contains only four material formulations and only two of them were used as independent validation points, the obtained prediction errors should not be interpreted as proof of general predictive capability. They demonstrate the suitability of the proposed calibration framework for ranking and comparing model structures within the investigated composition range. Therefore, Model M2 should be regarded as the best-performing formulation for the present dataset and calibration scheme, not as a universal wear-prediction law for all copper-free friction materials.
4. Discussion of Modelling and Validation Results
The obtained results indicate that the tribological behaviour of the analysed friction materials cannot be interpreted solely as a simple consequence of eliminating copper from the formulation. The reference specimen S1 contained 20 wt.% Cu, whereas in specimens S2–S4 copper was replaced by different Al/PTFE ratios, with the remaining constituents kept constant. This design isolated the effect of the Al/PTFE balance on the abrasive wear-rate coefficient. The highest wear was observed for specimen S2, whereas increasing the aluminium fraction and reducing the PTFE content gradually decreased the wear coefficient. Nevertheless, even the most favourable copper-free variant, S4, exhibited higher wear than the copper-containing reference material.
This trend confirms that the Al/PTFE system did not fully reproduce the tribological function of copper. Although PTFE may contribute to transfer-layer formation under favourable contact conditions, its effect depends on the mechanical stability of the near-surface composite layer, compatibility with the matrix and interaction with hard phases. The improved behaviour of S3 and S4 compared with S2 suggests that aluminium may contribute to contact stabilisation through its higher stiffness and thermal conductivity.
From a microstructural point of view, the differences in wear behaviour can be associated with the different roles of metallic, polymeric and hard constituents in the near-surface contact region. In the copper-containing reference material, copper may contribute to a more stable tribological layer and improve heat dissipation from local contact spots. In the copper-free materials, a higher PTFE fraction may support local lubrication, but excessive PTFE content can also reduce the load-bearing capacity of the near-surface composite layer and promote easier removal of the polymer-rich matrix. This mechanism can explain the higher wear rate observed for S2. In contrast, increasing the aluminium fraction in S3 and S4 may improve heat spreading and local contact stiffness, which is consistent with the gradual decrease in wear rate from S2 to S4. Because detailed post-wear microstructural observations were not performed in this study, this interpretation should be treated as a mechanism-based explanation supported by the composition–wear trends rather than as direct microstructural evidence. The modelling results confirm that wear prediction for such materials requires consideration not only of composition itself, but also of effective material and contact descriptors. Model M3, introduced as a simplified linear composition-based model, showed the weakest overall prediction performance. The high MAPE, RMSE and maximum error values indicate that a linear description of the influence of Cu, Al, PTFE and hard phases is insufficient to reproduce the nonlinear interactions occurring in the contact zone. The largest deviation of Model M3 was observed for specimen S2, for which the model strongly underestimated the wear coefficient. This means that the response of a material with high PTFE content and low aluminium content cannot be treated as a simple sum of the contributions of individual constituents.
Model M1, based on a logarithmic relationship with an Al/PTFE interaction term, provided better agreement with the experimental data than Model M3. Its structure made it possible to account for the multiplicative influence of selected constituents and the interaction between aluminium and PTFE. This allowed the general trend to be reproduced more accurately; however, the model still underestimated the wear of specimen S2. This result indicates that the Al/PTFE interaction term alone was not sufficient to fully describe the complex wear mechanisms occurring in the material with the highest PTFE content. It can therefore be assumed that the role of PTFE in the analysed composite was not exclusively film forming, but also depended on the mechanical stability of the composite surface and the presence of phases capable of carrying load.
Model M0, describing the competition between hard phases and film-forming constituents, provided a physically interpretable representation of the wear mechanism. This model reproduced the behaviour of specimens S2 and S3 relatively well and had the lowest absolute bias among the analysed variants. This means that, on average, it did not show a strong tendency either to overestimate or underestimate the experimental results. At the same time, Model M0 exceeded the ±5% error band for specimens S1 and S4. This suggests that the concept of competition between hard and film-forming phases is useful, but it does not sufficiently account for changes in contact stiffness, effective hardness and pressure distribution in the contact zone. These factors may be particularly important when comparing the copper-containing reference material with copper-free materials, in which the balance between metallic and polymeric constituents changes.
Within the analysed dataset, the best prediction accuracy was obtained for Model M2. This model achieved the lowest MAPE, RMSE and maximum error values, and all its predictions were within the adopted ±5% band. The improved performance of Model M2 may be associated with the inclusion of effective hardness and Hertzian contact descriptors. Nevertheless, because several modelling assumptions differ simultaneously between the analysed formulations, the present study does not allow a rigorous attribution of the observed improvement to any single descriptor. Consequently, the model does not describe only nominal composition, but also accounts for the effective resistance of the composite to contact loading, which is important for multi-component friction materials.
The parity plots and the analysis of percentage errors confirm this interpretation. Points corresponding to the predictions of Model M2 were within the ±5% error band for all specimens, whereas the other models showed larger deviations for selected compositions. It is particularly important that the simplified models did not produce errors uniformly across the entire dataset, but showed increased deviations for specific compositions. This means that the average error alone is not a sufficient criterion for model assessment. A model intended to support material design should provide stable predictions for individual formulations, especially when it is used to evaluate substitutes for environmentally problematic constituents such as copper.
From a practical point of view, the obtained results show that the proposed calibration procedure is useful for comparing different model structures under the same experimental conditions. The use of the same type of scaling calibration made it possible to adjust the model-response level to the experimental values while preserving the differences resulting from the adopted model structure. At the same time, the results show that calibration alone cannot compensate for an inadequate model form. Despite the use of the same calibration procedure, the prediction accuracy of the individual models differed significantly. This confirms that the quality of the physical and semi-empirical assumptions is crucial for reliable wear prediction.
It should also be noted that the adopted model parameters were selected as physically motivated model-shape descriptors rather than as globally optimised fitting constants. Consequently, the present comparison should be interpreted primarily as an assessment of alternative modelling frameworks under a common calibration strategy. Future studies should investigate parameter-identification procedures and larger validation datasets to separate the effects of model structure from those of parameter selection.
The limitations of the analysis should also be indicated. The number of investigated compositions was limited to four, and the copper-free materials differed mainly in the Al/PTFE ratio. Therefore, the developed models should be treated as calibrated predictive tools for the analysed composition range, rather than as universal wear models for all friction materials. Further validation should include a larger number of compositions, variable normal loads, different sliding distances, temperatures and counter-sample materials. It would also be advisable to link the proposed modelling approach with microstructural observations and post-wear surface analysis. This would make it possible to verify whether the predicted contributions of hard phases, film-forming constituents and effective hardness correspond to the actual wear mechanisms.
Despite these limitations, the obtained results show that Model M2 is the most reliable predictive tool for the present dataset. Its effectiveness suggests that abrasive-wear modelling of multi-component friction materials should account not only for composition, but also for effective mechanical properties and contact parameters. The proposed approach should therefore be regarded as a preliminary screening tool for copper-free candidate formulations, rather than as a final design rule.
5. Conclusions
The conducted study showed that replacing copper with the Al/PTFE system significantly affects the abrasive wear resistance of composite friction materials. The reference specimen S1, containing copper, exhibited the lowest wear-rate coefficient, whereas all copper-free specimens showed higher wear. Among the copper-free compositions, the highest wear rate was obtained for the specimen with the highest PTFE content and the lowest aluminium content. Increasing the aluminium fraction while decreasing the PTFE fraction led to a gradual reduction in the wear coefficient, indicating that the proportion of these constituents is crucial for shaping the tribological properties of copper-free materials.
The developed and compared predictive models showed different abilities to reproduce the experimental results. The simplest linear model, M3, was not sufficient to describe the analysed material system correctly, especially for the composition with a high PTFE content. Models M0 and M1 reproduced the general trend of changes more accurately, but still showed significant deviations for selected specimens. These results confirm that the wear of multi-component friction materials cannot be reliably predicted solely from simple composition-based relationships.
The best agreement with the experimental data was obtained for Model M2, which combines the Archard approach with effective hardness and Hertzian contact descriptors. This model achieved the lowest MAPE, RMSE and maximum error values, and all its predictions were within the ±5% error band. This means that including effective mechanical properties and contact conditions improves the model’s ability to reproduce wear changes resulting from modifications in material composition.
The proposed modelling and calibration procedure may be a useful tool for supporting the preliminary screening of new friction-material compositions. Within the analysed composition range and for the calibration scheme based on specimens S1 and S4, Model M2 provided the best compromise between accuracy, prediction stability and physical interpretability. However, due to the limited number of tested formulations and validation points, it should be treated as a calibrated screening model rather than a universal predictive law. Further validation should include a broader range of material compositions and testing conditions, independent validation datasets, post-wear microstructural analysis, and additional studies of particle emissions and environmental aspects of PTFE-containing systems.
It should be noted that the present study focused exclusively on abrasive wear behaviour and wear-rate prediction. The coefficient of friction, which is another key performance parameter of brake friction materials, was not measured within the adopted ball-cratering test procedure. Therefore, the conclusions of this work should be interpreted in terms of wear resistance rather than overall braking performance. Future studies should combine wear evaluation with friction-coefficient measurements performed under conditions more representative of real braking operation.