The Effectiveness of Wind and Solar Power Generation in CO₂ Emissions Abatement in Greece

This study empirically isolates the marginal CO₂ abatement efficiency of wind and solar power within the Greek electricity system, utilizing hourly dispatch data from August 2012 to December 2018—a period characterizing the grid’s “pre-saturation” technical potential. By employing an econometric framework to capture ex-post displacement dynamics, we identify a statistically significant but highly heterogeneous abatement impact across renewable technologies. Our analysis reveals that wind power consistently achieves higher carbon savings per MWh than solar photovoltaics, primarily by driving deeper displacement of carbon-intensive thermal baseload. Conversely, solar generation exhibits a stronger propensity to displace zero-carbon hydroelectric output and net imports, thereby dampening its domestic abatement efficiency. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the marginal emissions avoided are non-linear, fluctuating significantly with system load, interconnection flows, and renewable penetration levels. These findings establish an “unconstrained efficiency” benchmark for the Greek grid, providing the necessary counterfactual to evaluate the diminishing returns and curtailment penalties characterizing the high-penetration era of renewables.