Assessment of the Renewable Energy Recovery Potential from Municipal Solid Waste: A Polish Case Study

This study investigates whether the optimal utilization of the biomass potential contained in municipal solid waste (MSW) can support the implementation of circular economy (CE) principles and contribute to climate policy objectives, particularly the reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the waste management sector. The analysis evaluates whether waste-to-energy recovery can support the objectives of the European Green Deal, including a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2035 and the achievement of climate neutrality by 2050. The assessment was conducted for two MSW streams generated in a Polish municipality: separately collected biowaste and residual MSW remaining after meeting European reuse and recycling targets. The study summarizes the results of detailed experimental investigations of the physicochemical and fuel properties of these waste streams. Proven and commercially available energy recovery technologies, including anaerobic digestion (AD) of biowaste and incineration of residual waste, were analyzed. GHG emissions were assessed using a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach, taking into account both direct emissions and avoided emissions resulting from the substitution of conventional energy and fertilizer production. The experimental results revealed significant variability in the biodegradability and energy potential of individual biowaste fractions, with the highest biogas yields observed for kitchen waste. Residual waste exhibited a considerable calorific value and a significant share of renewable energy due to its biomass content. The results indicate that the share of renewable energy in electricity generated from waste is expected to increase from 46.1% in 2025 to 49.9% in 2040. In relation to the total electricity demand of the analyzed city, energy recovered from waste accounts for 1.8 ± 0.3% in 2025 and 1.3 ± 0.2% in 2040. Scenario-based modeling demonstrated that the target system, maximizing energy recovery from both biowaste and residual waste, achieves a consistently negative GHG emission balance throughout the analyzed period (2025–2040), ranging from −72 ± 15 kg CO₂-eq/ton in 2025, through the most favorable value of −81 ± 17 kg CO₂-eq/ton in 2035, to −57 ± 12 kg CO₂-eq/ton in 2040, expressed per ton of total managed biowaste and residual waste.