Hydrogen as a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origins in the European Union—The Emerging Market and Regulatory Framework
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Socio-Economic, Technological, and Political Determinants Associated with Hydrogen Economy Development
2.1. Overview of the Key Socio-Economic and Technological Barriers to Hydrogen Economy Development
2.2. Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel in the European Union’s Energy Transition
2.3. The Global Perspective on Policy and Regulatory Framework for Hydrogen Economy Development
Country | EU | Germany | Poland | USA | Australia | China | Japan | S. Korea | |
Year of Publication of Hydrogen Strategy | 2020 | 2021 | 2021 | 2023 | 2022 | 2017 | |||
Timelines and targets for H2 market development | |||||||||
Hydrogen cost targets | |||||||||
Measures to support H2 development: | |||||||||
Direct investments | |||||||||
Other economic and financial mechanisms | |||||||||
Legislative and regulatory measures | |||||||||
Standardisation strategy and priorities | |||||||||
Research & development initiatives | |||||||||
International cooperation | |||||||||
Strategy addresses social issues for H2 development | |||||||||
Strategy includes review and update | |||||||||
Strategy’s H2 target source by 2030 | Clean & low-carbon H2 | Clean H2 | Clean & low-carbon H2 | Low-carbon H2 (SMR + CCS) | Clean H2 | Fossil fuels + CCS | Natural gas (SMR) | ||
Strategy’s H2 target source by 2050 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | Clean H2 | ||
Import/Self-reliance/Export | Depends on Member States | Import Export | Import Self-reliance | Export Self-reliance | Export Self-reliance | Export Self-reliance | Import | Import Export | |
MAIN OBJECTIVES | |||||||||
Decarbonisation | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Lower | Immediate | Immediate | Lower | |
Diversify energy supply | Lower | Immediate | Long term | Long term | Lower | Long term | Immediate | Long term | |
Foster economic growth | Lower | Immediate | Long term | Long term | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | |
Integration of renewables | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Lower | Immediate | Lower | Long term | |
SECTORAL PRIORITIES | |||||||||
Heating | Lower | Lower | Long term | Lower | Immediate | Long term | Immediate | Lower | |
Industry: | |||||||||
Iron and Steel | Long term | Immediate | Immediate | Long term | Long term | Immediate | Lower | Lower | |
Chemical feedstock | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Long term | Immediate | Immediate | Lower | Not seen | |
Refining | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Not seen | Immediate | Lower | Not seen | |
Power generation | Lower | Not seen | Long term | Long term | Lower | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | |
Transport: | |||||||||
Passenger vehicles | Lower | Long term | Long term | Immediate | Lower | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | |
Medium and heavy duty | Immediate | Long term | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Long term | Immediate | |
Buses | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Long term | Immediate | |
Rail | Immediate | Immediate | Immediate | Lower | Lower | Lower | Not seen | Lower | |
Maritime | Long term | Long term | Long term | Lower | Long term | Long term | Lower | Lower | |
Aviation | Long term | Long term | Long term | Long term | Lower | Long term | Lower | Not seen |
3. Shaping the Market Demand for Hydrogen as RFNBO—The EU Perspective
3.1. The Demand for Renewable Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel
3.2. The EU Policy Landscape to Develop the Demand Side of the Market for Hydrogen as RFNBO
4. Shaping the Market Supply for Hydrogen as RFNBO—The EU Perspective
4.1. Available and Projected Production Capacity for Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel
4.2. The Production Cost of Renewable Hydrogen in the EU and Its Determinants
4.3. Financial Incentives to Increase the Supply of Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AFIR | Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation |
BAT | best available techniques |
BEV | battery electric vehicles |
BIL | Bipartisan Infrastructure Law |
CAPEX | capital (initial) expenses |
CCS | carbon capture and storage |
CI | carbon intensity |
CO2 | carbon dioxide |
ECHA | European Clean Hydrogen Alliance |
EED | Energy Efficiency Directive |
EHB | European Hydrogen Bank |
ETD | Energy Taxation Directive |
EU | European Union |
EU ETS | EU Emission Trading System |
EUA | EU allowances |
FCEV | fuel cell electric vehicle |
GHG | greenhouse gas |
HRS | hydrogen refueling station |
IED | Industrial Emissions Directive |
IIJA | Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act |
IPCEI | Important Projects of Common European Interest |
IRA | Inflation Reduction Act |
LCOH | levelized cost of hydrogen |
LCR | local (or domestic) content requirement |
LNG | liquid natural gas |
OPEX | operational expenses |
PV | photovoltaic (panel) |
RED III | Renewable Energy Directive III |
RES | renewable energy sources |
RFNBO | renewable fuel of non-biological origin |
SAF | sustainable aviation fuel |
SMR | steam methane reforming |
TEN-T | Trans-European Transport Network |
WTO | World Trade Organization |
Appendix A
Country | LD-FCEV | FCEB | FCET (vans) | FCET (MD/HD) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Germany | 2122 | 149 | 16 | 30 |
Netherlands | 615 | 64 | 13 | 35 |
France | 614 | 27 | 273 | |
Denmark | 232 | 4 | 2 | |
Poland | 165 | |||
Belgium | 107 | 4 | 1 | |
Austria | 67 | |||
Italy | 58 | 13 | ||
Sweden | 44 | 2 | ||
Czech Republic | 28 | |||
Spain | 24 | 6 | ||
Luxembourg | 5 | |||
Portugal | 4 | 2 | ||
Slovakia | 3 | |||
Estonia | 2 | |||
Finland | 2 | |||
Bulgaria | 1 | |||
Lithuania | 1 | |||
Latvia | 22 |
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The Relevant EU Regulation or Directive | The Impact on the Market Demand Side for Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel | The Sectors Where Hydrogen as RFNBO Fuel Will Be Most Applicable | Additional Description |
---|---|---|---|
EU Emission Trading System II (Directive (EU) 2023/959) [129] | As a market-based tradable permit system for CO2 emissions, it puts pressure to reduce the carbon intensity of fuels and promote the use of low- and zero-carbon energy carriers (e.g., hydrogen as RFNBO fuel) | Industry, energy, heating, marine and air transport, passenger transport | By establishing a carbon price for CO2 emissions in fuel-intensive sectors like road transport and buildings, the roll-out of EU ETS incentivizes the demand for renewable fuels, including RFNBOs |
RED III—Renewable Energy Directive III (Directive (EU) 2023/2413) [66] | Promotes the use of RFNBO fuels through dedicated sector targets | Industry, transport | RED III introduces dedicated targets for RFNBO use in the industry by 2030 (42%), by 2035 (60%), and in transportation by 2030 (1%) |
EED—Energy Efficiency Directive (Directive (EU) 2023/1791) [130] | Promotes gas-fired, high-efficiency cogeneration technology that can be gradually decarbonized using RFNBO fuels | Energy, heating | EED introduces a carbon intensity limit of 270 g CO2-eq/kWh for high-efficiency cogeneration units and efficient district heating systems, which could generate a gradual decrease in CI of cogeneration units using, among other things, hydrogen as RFNBO fuel. |
ETD—Energy Taxation Directive (to be adopted, undergoes trialogue negotiations) [131] | Introduces preferential tax rates for RFNBO fuels used for transport and heating (improving their cost-parity with fossil fuels) | Energy, transport | RFNBO fuels used for transportation and heating are to have 6 times lower tax rates than hydrocarbon-based fuels |
IED 2.0 –The revised Industrial and Livestock Rearing Emissions Directive (Directive (EU) 2024/1785) [132] | Specifies environmental and emissions requirements for large industrial installations in the EU, leading to the need for RFNBO utilization | Industry, energy, heating | Introduces mandatory best available techniques (BAT) for industrial installations. Plant operators will have to submit plans to decarbonize assets by 2050, also using RFNBOs |
FuelEU Maritime (Regulation (EU) 2023/1805) [133] | Requires the use of low- and zero-carbon fuels in maritime transportation (including RFNBO fuels and biofuels) | Transport | The regulation is intended to ensure carbon intensity reductions in the shipping sector using LNG, bio-fuels, and RFNBO fuels (including renewable methanol and renewable ammonia) to use 2% RFNBO by 2034. |
ReFuelEU Aviation (Regulation (EU) 2023/2405) [134] | Requires the use of low- and zero-emission fuels in air transportation (including RFNBO fuels and biofuels) | Transport | The regulation is intended to ensure carbon intensity reductions in air transportation with the use of biofuels and RFNBO fuels (including synthetic fuels produced by the Fischer-Tropsch method, e-kerosene) |
AFIR—Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2023/1804) [135] | Supporting infrastructure deployment for alternative fuels, including hydrogen as RFNBO, to facilitate the decarbonization of different modes of transportation | Transport | It established binding targets for deploying publicly accessible refueling points for BEVs and FCEVs across the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T) and urban areas, ensuring sufficient and geographically balanced coverage. |
Early Stage | Feasibility Study | FID or Construction | Operational | Total per Country | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Austria | 26.881 | 64.450 | 5.449 | 2.211 | 98.991 |
Belgium | 110.180 | 134.955 | 0.433 | 0.201 | 245.769 |
Cyprus | 0.000 | 4.331 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 4.331 |
Czech republic | 0.000 | 13.938 | 0.832 | 0.000 | 14.770 |
Denmark | 2972.579 | 549.919 | 20.551 | 1.183 | 3544.232 |
Estonia | 8.063 | 181.854 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 190.221 |
Finland | 487.108 | 568.002 | 8.855 | 1.768 | 1065.733 |
France | 3885.766 | 696.223 | 40.694 | 1.934 | 4624.616 |
Germany | 1407.438 | 1134.089 | 80.994 | 12.094 | 2634.616 |
Greece | 71.076 | 527.721 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 598.992 |
Hungary | 0.000 | 1.499 | 0.173 | 0.300 | 1.972 |
Ireland | 547.481 | 585.943 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 1133.423 |
Italy | 209.615 | 103.859 | 1.102 | 0.495 | 315.072 |
Lithuania | 0.173 | 36.903 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 37.076 |
Latvia | 5.198 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 5.198 |
Netherlands | 742.429 | 1522.985 | 35.249 | 1.560 | 2302.223 |
Poland | 178.797 | 43.996 | 1.499 | 0.364 | 224.657 |
Portugal | 438.833 | 229.249 | 16.582 | 0.000 | 684.664 |
Slovakia | 0.000 | 38.462 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 38.462 |
Slovenia | 0.000 | 5.891 | 0.000 | 0.104 | 5.995 |
Spain | 6105.911 | 3044.883 | 11.653 | 5.595 | 9168.042 |
Sweden | 781.658 | 726.498 | 230.766 | 3.809 | 1742.732 |
Selected non-EU countries | |||||
United kingdom | 916.824 | 365.633 | 7.420 | 1.208 | 1291.085 |
Switzerland | 0.156 | 4.331 | 0.832 | 1.158 | 6.478 |
Norway | 363.992 | 353.723 | 18.201 | 1.690 | 737.606 |
Iceland | 0.047 | 16.949 | 0.000 | 1.057 | 18.052 |
Total | 19,260.205 | 10,956.288 | 481.285 | 37.230 | 30,735.008 |
Renewable Hydrogen from Grid Electrolysis | Renewable Hydrogen Directly Connected to RES | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CAPEX | Grid Fees | Other OPEX | Taxes | Wholesale Electricity Costs | TOTAL | CAPEX | Electricity Costs | Grid Fees and Taxes | Other OPEX | TOTAL | |
Ireland | €2.76 | €0.98 | €0.11 | €0.01 | €4.70 | €8.56 | €2.25 | €1.82 | €- | €0.06 | €4.13 |
Denmark | €2.76 | €0.94 | €0.11 | €0.07 | €2.32 | €6.20 | €2.58 | €2.01 | €- | €0.09 | €4.69 |
Sweden | €2.76 | €0.60 | €0.11 | €0.04 | €0.92 | €4.43 | €2.85 | €2.08 | €- | €0.11 | €5.04 |
Greece | €2.76 | €0.55 | €0.11 | -€0.37 | €4.39 | €7.44 | €3.21 | €1.73 | €- | €0.14 | €5.08 |
Spain | €2.76 | €0.62 | €0.11 | €0.24 | €2.77 | €6.50 | €3.94 | €1.55 | €- | €0.13 | €5.61 |
Finland | €2.76 | €0.43 | €0.11 | €0.03 | €0.73 | €4.06 | €3.17 | €2.36 | €- | €0.14 | €5.67 |
Portugal | €2.76 | €0.90 | €0.11 | -€1.97 | €2.91 | €4.71 | €3.99 | €1.65 | €- | €0.13 | €5.77 |
Malta | €2.76 | €1.46 | €0.11 | €0.08 | €3.76 | €8.17 | €4.00 | €1.72 | €- | €0.13 | €5.86 |
Netherlands | €2.76 | €1.55 | €0.11 | €0.58 | €3.16 | €8.16 | €3.09 | €2.65 | €- | €0.13 | €5.87 |
Cyprus | €2.76 | €0.99 | €0.11 | €4.27 | €9.23 | €17.36 | €3.99 | €1.88 | €- | €0.13 | €6.00 |
Austria | €2.76 | €1.35 | €0.11 | €0.23 | €3.61 | €8.06 | €3.30 | €2.66 | €- | €0.15 | €6.11 |
Latvia | €2.76 | €0.60 | €0.11 | €0.07 | €2.69 | €6.23 | €3.34 | €2.70 | €- | €0.15 | €6.19 |
Lithuania | €2.76 | €1.07 | €0.11 | -€0.41 | €2.71 | €6.24 | €3.35 | €2.71 | €- | €0.15 | €6.20 |
Estonia | €2.76 | €1.18 | €0.11 | €0.69 | €2.44 | €7.18 | €3.44 | €2.78 | €- | €0.16 | €6.38 |
Italy | €2.76 | €0.69 | €0.11 | €1.20 | €5.34 | €10.10 | €4.48 | €1.92 | €- | €0.18 | €6.58 |
France | €2.76 | €0.79 | €0.11 | €0.08 | €3.22 | €6.95 | €4.63 | €1.93 | €- | €0.19 | €6.75 |
Poland | €2.76 | €1.23 | €0.11 | €3.87 | €4.38 | €12.35 | €3.81 | €3.22 | €- | €0.12 | €7.15 |
Croatia | €2.76 | €0.93 | €0.11 | €0.71 | €3.62 | €8.14 | €4.09 | €3.20 | €- | €0.14 | €7.43 |
Czechia | €2.76 | €1.18 | €0.11 | €0.06 | €3.55 | €7.67 | €4.08 | €3.29 | €- | €0.14 | €7.51 |
Bulgaria | €2.76 | €1.38 | €0.11 | -€0.27 | €3.44 | €7.42 | €5.48 | €2.10 | €- | €0.27 | €7.86 |
Romania | €2.76 | €1.37 | €0.11 | €0.68 | €3.42 | €8.34 | €5.60 | €2.35 | €- | €0.28 | €8.24 |
Slovakia | €2.76 | €1.51 | €0.11 | €1.83 | €3.66 | €9.87 | €4.51 | €3.63 | €- | €0.18 | €8.32 |
Belgium | €2.76 | €0.48 | €0.11 | €0.93 | €3.25 | €7.53 | €2.53 | €4.33 | €1.41 | €0.09 | €8.35 |
Slovenia | €2.76 | €0.54 | €0.11 | €0.41 | €3.67 | €7.48 | €4.64 | €3.73 | €- | €0.19 | €8.55 |
Germany | €2.76 | €1.44 | €0.11 | €1.79 | €3.13 | €9.22 | €4.50 | €4.20 | €- | €0.18 | €8.87 |
Hungary | €2.76 | €2.96 | €0.11 | €0.45 | €3.73 | €10.01 | €4.83 | €3.88 | €- | €0.21 | €8.93 |
Luxembourg | €2.76 | €1.04 | €0.11 | €0.03 | €3.13 | €7.07 | €5.03 | €4.04 | €- | €0.23 | €9.30 |
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Share and Cite
Graczyk, A.; Brusiło, P.; Graczyk, A.M. Hydrogen as a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origins in the European Union—The Emerging Market and Regulatory Framework. Energies 2025, 18, 617. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18030617
Graczyk A, Brusiło P, Graczyk AM. Hydrogen as a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origins in the European Union—The Emerging Market and Regulatory Framework. Energies. 2025; 18(3):617. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18030617
Chicago/Turabian StyleGraczyk, Andrzej, Paweł Brusiło, and Alicja Małgorzata Graczyk. 2025. "Hydrogen as a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origins in the European Union—The Emerging Market and Regulatory Framework" Energies 18, no. 3: 617. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18030617
APA StyleGraczyk, A., Brusiło, P., & Graczyk, A. M. (2025). Hydrogen as a Renewable Fuel of Non-Biological Origins in the European Union—The Emerging Market and Regulatory Framework. Energies, 18(3), 617. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18030617