Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty

Lu, Xingyu; Li, Xiaogang; Liu, Fubin; Wu, Min; Hong, Yuanrui; Du, Fei; Tao, Shiyuan; Tan, Zhenfei

doi:10.3390/en18236203

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Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty

by

Xingyu Lu

¹,

Xiaogang Li

²,

Fubin Liu

²,

Min Wu

²,

Yuanrui Hong

²,

Fei Du

²,

Shiyuan Tao

² and

Zhenfei Tan

^1,*

¹

School of Electrical Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China

²

East China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Shanghai 200120, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Energies 2025, 18(23), 6203; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236203

Submission received: 16 September 2025 / Revised: 10 November 2025 / Accepted: 24 November 2025 / Published: 26 November 2025

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Abstract

With the rapid transition toward a low-carbon power system, the temporal intermittency and spatial unevenness of renewable generation have imposed emerging challenges to the supply–demand balance of electricity. To enhance the secure utilization of inter-regional transmission capacity under uncertainties, this paper proposes a correlation-aware Gaussian mixture model (GMM) for probabilistic assessment of the transmission reliability margin (TRM) of interconnectors. The proposed method explicitly captures multi-source uncertainties, including renewable generation, load, and power contract execution deviation. The internal correlations among uncertain factors are embedded in the GMM to avoid the misestimation associated with independent-distribution assumptions. Simulation results on a four-region system demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms existing methods in higher accuracy and computational efficiency, which enables reliable and economic cross-regional power trading under uncertainty.

Keywords: inter-regional electricity trading; transmission reliability margin (TRM); multi-source uncertainty; correlation-aware GMM; probabilistic assessment

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MDPI and ACS Style

Lu, X.; Li, X.; Liu, F.; Wu, M.; Hong, Y.; Du, F.; Tao, S.; Tan, Z. Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty. Energies 2025, 18, 6203. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236203

AMA Style

Lu X, Li X, Liu F, Wu M, Hong Y, Du F, Tao S, Tan Z. Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty. Energies. 2025; 18(23):6203. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236203

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lu, Xingyu, Xiaogang Li, Fubin Liu, Min Wu, Yuanrui Hong, Fei Du, Shiyuan Tao, and Zhenfei Tan. 2025. "Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty" Energies 18, no. 23: 6203. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236203

APA Style

Lu, X., Li, X., Liu, F., Wu, M., Hong, Y., Du, F., Tao, S., & Tan, Z. (2025). Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty. Energies, 18(23), 6203. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18236203

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Probabilistic Assessment of Transmission Reliability Margin for Inter-Regional Electricity Trading Incorporating Multi-Source Uncertainty

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