A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming

Sun, Na; He, Hongxu; Dong, Haiying

doi:10.3390/en18225927

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A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming

by

Na Sun

,

Hongxu He

and

Haiying Dong

^*

School of New Energy and Power Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Energies 2025, 18(22), 5927; https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225927

Submission received: 11 October 2025 / Revised: 5 November 2025 / Accepted: 10 November 2025 / Published: 11 November 2025

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Abstract

To address the economic and reliability challenges of high-penetration renewable energy integration in electricity-heat-hydrogen integrated energy systems and support the dual-carbon strategy, this paper proposes an optimal dispatch method integrating Information Gap Decision Theory (IGDT) and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming (FCCP). An IES model coupling multiple energy components was constructed to exploit multi-energy complementarity. A stepped carbon trading mechanism was introduced to quantify emission costs. For interval uncertainties in renewable generation, IGDT-based robust and opportunistic dispatch models were established; for fuzzy load uncertainties, FCCP transformed them into deterministic equivalents, forming a dual-layer “IGDT-FCCP” uncertainty handling framework. Simulation using CPLEX demonstrated that the proposed model dynamically adjusts uncertainty tolerance and confidence levels, effectively balancing economy, robustness, and low-carbon performance under complex uncertainties: reducing total costs by 12.7%, cutting carbon emissions by 28.1%, and lowering renewable curtailment to 1.8%. This study provides an advanced decision-making paradigm for low-carbon resilient IES.

Keywords: integrated energy system; information gap decision theory; fuzzy chance-constrained programming; electric-hydrogen hybrid energy storage; carbon trading; optimal dispatch

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MDPI and ACS Style

Sun, N.; He, H.; Dong, H. A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming. Energies 2025, 18, 5927. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225927

AMA Style

Sun N, He H, Dong H. A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming. Energies. 2025; 18(22):5927. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225927

Chicago/Turabian Style

Sun, Na, Hongxu He, and Haiying Dong. 2025. "A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming" Energies 18, no. 22: 5927. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225927

APA Style

Sun, N., He, H., & Dong, H. (2025). A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming. Energies, 18(22), 5927. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18225927

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A Two-Stage Optimal Dispatch Strategy for Electric-Thermal-Hydrogen Integrated Energy System Based on IGDT and Fuzzy Chance-Constrained Programming

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