2.1. Traditional Approaches to the Analysis of Energy Efficiency in Mining Enterprises
First of all, it should be noted that the technological processes of open-pit mining have a characteristic specificity, which consists of:
The nonlinearity of production processes, the continuous dynamics of which depend on a large number of technical–technological, mining–geological, and weather–climatic factors, with a complex, and in some cases stochastic, nature of occurrence [
10,
11], which is difficult to formalize strictly;
Heterogeneity of the main controlled objects and their parameters, which are mining and transport equipment. The differences between the objects are expressed both in terms and modes of operation and in the initial passport characteristics for similar objects of different series, brands, and manufacturers [
18];
Multicriteria of integral indicators of the efficiency of production activities [
10,
11,
18], which primarily include various kinds of technological criteria, such as, for example:
Maximizing the volume of products produced (minerals and rock in general);
Minimizing the downtime of technological equipment (mainly dump trucks and excavators);
Minimizing the consumption of energy (and material) resources;
Etc.
It is assumed that the achievement of all performance indicators should be carried out simultaneously, so that the construction of production plans and the development of control actions involve the use of complex multi-criteria optimization methods, which, obviously, are computationally expensive procedures. Moreover, when managing open-pit mining operations, it is necessary to consider a number of requirements for safety, reliability, and quality in general, which further complicates ways to ensure integrated production efficiency. Thus, management procedures, as a rule, are decomposed into separate tasks aimed at analyzing and optimizing the activities of specific technological objects and production processes in various decision-making time intervals.
Traditional approaches to the management of individual objects and processes of open-pit mining, in a generalized form, include [
10]:
Formation of an annual production plan for the volume of mineral extraction in accordance with the characteristics of the deposit and the accepted technologies of uncovering;
Discretization of the plan for separate time intervals (quarters, months, and shifts) with subsequent forecasting and planning of production volumes and resource consumption for individual technological objects for each specified time interval;
Direct execution of planned tasks, continuous monitoring and analysis of performance results to take measures to eliminate discrepancies or recalculate planned indicators.
At the same time, it should be noted that, first of all, enterprises are interested in maximizing the volume of rock mass, and de facto, management procedures, including operational regulation of ECO operating modes, are mainly aimed at optimizing this indicator. In this regard, the resulting efficiency of the production activities of enterprises largely depends on the quality of execution of planned (shift) tasks and measures for operational monitoring, analysis, and management of the progress of technological work. To ensure such measures, today, ECOs are equipped with specialized on-board systems, including a set of sensors, computing and transmitting devices that record information about various production and operational indicators of the equipment. The typical structure of on-board systems, as a rule, includes satellite navigation devices, electric and fuel flow meters, and various devices that determine the dynamics of changes in the position of individual parts of equipment and the load caused by interaction with the rock mass during mining and transport operations [
5,
18]. The information received from individual ECOs is aggregated in centralized control rooms and used both in the processes of operational management of the progress of production work and as statistical information for the in-depth analysis and planning of integrated activities of enterprises.
However, with the potential availability of a large amount of technological information, currently at the enterprises under consideration, the analysis of the energy efficiency of individual ECOs and production processes remains a problem in the field of rational energy consumption. Despite the adoption of the energy management strategy, the procedures for determining the efficiency of resource consumption and subsequent analysis of the results of production activities are characterized by a certain voluntarism. Mainly, this problem is caused by the accepted methods of calculating an established normative indicator, namely specific energy consumption, used both to evaluate the activities of individual ECO and for an integrated assessment of processes and the enterprise as a whole.
The existing energy management processes can be described in a general way as follows:
Responsible persons from among the personnel of enterprises, based on their own experience, carry out an expert assessment of the “optimal” value of specific energy consumption in the form of a target (planned) threshold. Such an assessment, as a rule, involves considering empirical observations of the monthly total consumption of each type of energy resource (electricity, diesel fuel, etc.) at the enterprise (1). The estimated monthly consumption volumes of energy resources are evenly distributed for each ECO instance (excavators, dump trucks, etc.), in accordance with the type of energy consumed (2). Further, in accordance with the production plan (evenly distributed planned values of the volumes of extracted and transported rock), a planned (target) value is set for each ECO, and the value of specific energy consumption is in the form of the ratio of the estimated consumption of energy resources to the estimated planned value of the volume of work (3).
This procedure can be written in the form of the following formulas:
where
is an empirical–heuristic average estimate of the estimated volume of the
-th energy resource for the
-th (
) discrete time interval (month);
is the average observed value of the volume of the consumed energy resource by the
-th energy-consuming object (
);
is the number of observations of the same time interval (month) that fell into the experience of the responsible person;
is a heuristic average estimate of the amount of energy resources expected to be consumed by the nth ECO in the
-th time interval;
is the planned value of the volume of work (mining or transportation of rock) by the
-th ECO in the
-th time interval; and
is the planned (target) value of specific energy consumption for the
-th ECO in the
-th time interval.
The obtained individual estimate of the planned (target) value of specific energy consumption is set for each smaller discrete step included in the
-th interval, which means uniform time intervals in the form of shifts (12 h). Based on the obtained specific energy consumption targets, further monitoring and analysis of the shift and monthly results of the ECO activities are carried out, so that:
where
is the actual value of specific energy consumption calculated on the basis of data on the volume of work performed and energy resources consumed obtained using on-board ECO systems;
is the actual value of the volume of energy resources consumed by the
-th ECO in the
-th time interval; and
—the amount of resources saved;
—the amount of resources overspent.
It is obvious that this approach to assessing energy efficiency indicators in monitoring and analyzing the results of ECO activities has a number of disadvantages, namely:
The calculation of primary planned indicators of energy resources is carried out using estimates based primarily on the experience of the decision maker. This approach cannot be called sufficiently objective, leveling the risks of human error, and is guaranteed to cover a representative and statistically significant number of observations;
Using a uniform averaging of values, even for the same type of ECO, is an invalid approach, at least not taking into account the specifics of the service life and operating conditions of a particular ECO instance;
In the process of calculating planned and actual consumption indicators of energy resources, the specifics of the types of technological work for which estimates of efficient specific energy consumption may differ significantly are not taken into account. Thus, the performance of two completely similar ECO types of work, such as, for example, the excavation of minerals and the excavation of waste rock, with equal values of the “extracted” rock mass, will consume different amounts of energy resources due to the peculiarities of the mining and geological conditions;
A linear dependence of the amount of work performed on the amount of resources spent is assumed, which is more intuitive than a well-founded and statistically supported hypothesis.
Thus, the limit of the value of the planned specific energy consumption is set as an auxiliary, but small, informative parameter, which does not really explain the level of efficiency or inefficiency of ECO activities in certain situations. In fact, technological downtime of equipment, overfulfilments or deficiencies in the volume of work performed, and the specifics of individual ECO and technological processes that arise for unforeseen reasons are not considered. The use of this parameter, in the context of monitoring and operational management of the progress of production processes in order to offset the discrepancy between the actual values and the planned ones, is not provided. It is also necessary to consider separately the high noise level of the initial data obtained from on-board systems and the presence of a large number of abnormal values described in our previous work [
15], which may affect real estimates of energy efficiency. Based on the above, it can be concluded that the existing approach to energy management adopted at enterprises of the Russian Federation currently requires significant changes and the use of methods to achieve greater objectivity, validity, and accuracy in determining key energy efficiency indicators.
2.2. Stochastic Frontier Analysis and Cobb–Douglas Production Function
Based on Farrell’s seminal works [
19,
20], various parametric and non-parametric methods for measuring efficiency have emerged. Notably, stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) models and data envelopment analysis (DEA) models have proven to be particularly useful in evaluating the efficiency of production units. SFA was introduced independently by Aigner et al. [
21] and Meeusen and van der Broek [
22], while the DEA approach was pioneered by Charnes et al. [
23]. Subsequently, both methodologies have undergone substantial development and have attained considerable popularity.
The primary benefit of nonparametric DEA is its ability to operate without the need for a pre-specification of the functional form of the production function. However, all deviations from the frontier occurred due to variability in the measurement, which the DEA considers as an inefficiency. Considering the inherently stochastic nature of the production processes in the mining industry, an SFA model is more suitable for measuring the efficiency than a deterministic DEA approach.
Therefore, within the framework of this work, the application of the stochastic frontier analysis model and the Cobb–Douglas production function is proposed in order to explore the possibilities of improving the quality of energy management systems. The main idea of the work is to substantiate the boundaries of efficient energy consumption, taking into account the following hypotheses and considerations:
The use of traditional indicators for monitoring and managing energy consumption processes in the form of key interrelated parameters—the volume of work performed and the energy resources consumed—in order to preserve the simplicity of interpretation of the procedure for specialists of mining enterprises, as well as to ensure the possibility of obtaining analysis results based on representative historical and currently produced data;
The nonlinearity and stochasticity of the behavior of such parameters are due to:
Natural patterns inherent in the production processes of open-pit mining;
Technical and technological capabilities of ECO functioning in various operating modes;
Hidden (unobservable) or difficult-to-formalize factors that affect the efficiency of production activities.
Thus, the task of the study was to select a model that would most accurately describe the relationship between the amount of energy consumed and the amount of work performed in relation to the ECO and the technological process under consideration, would take into account the nonlinearity of the relationship of parameters, and would also allow for and explain the presence of random errors in the statistical data.
So, based on the formulation of the research problem, one of the possible ways to solve it is the use of stochastic frontier analysis methods based on the Cobb–Douglas production function model. This group of econometric methods has proven itself well in solving many similar problems [
12,
13,
14] and is intended to substantiate empirical patterns in the behavior of parameters of economic and production systems [
16,
17]. The general idea of such methods is the formation of a nonlinear model that supports the presence of various kinds of errors, where key performance indicators are considered as a dependent variable, and factors influencing the results of the system’s activities act as independent parameters. In general, to account for the impact of a possible stochastic error and identify the frontiers of efficiency and non-efficiency of resource costs in obtaining products, an SFA approach with a function of the following type can be used:
where
is the volume of products produced by the
-th point in time;
is a function of the influence of factors (resources spent)
with elasticity coefficients
;
—stochastic error;
—inefficiency error. The random variables
and
are independent of each other and of the factors
.
The type of function
in SFA models can be selected according to the different conditions of the original problem, data, and the subject area under consideration. The choice of a specific function, ultimately, can provide the most accurate description of the behavior of the sampling parameters. In the context of this study, we do not aim to find the most accurate SFA model because, first, we compare it with the traditional linear approach using the SEC parameter. In this regard, we consider the most common as the basic function—the production function or the Cobb–Douglas utility function. This function is designed to describe the dependence of production volume on the cost of labor and capital in the system, which in the most general form, and, in particular, for the case considered in this study, can be represented as a dependence of the volume of output depending upon the amount of resources spent. The classical model of the Cobb–Douglas production function is a function of the following type:
where
is the volume of production;
is the technological scale factor;
is the volume of labor costs;
is the volume of capital costs; and
and
are the elasticity coefficients for labor and capital, respectively.
Given that, in our case, only one independent factor is used for the SFA model, namely energy consumption, the stochastic production function is written as:
In this case, means the volume of work performed (3) for the mining (excavation) or transportation of rock, and as a factor , the volume of spent energy resources (3) is considered exclusively. Then, is defined as a random deviation of the volume of spent energy resources, explained by stochastic or non-formalized factors of the production process, and is a deviation in energy consumption, explained by the inefficient performance of technological work.
Also, an SFA model using the translog function can be considered as one of the possible options, which, as a rule, provides a more accurate description of the data under study and, in particular, in the case of one independent parameter. This model can be written as follows:
In this study, the translog function will be used for additional final confirmation of the main hypotheses regarding the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the behavior of energy efficiency parameters, as well as an illustrative comparative example of evaluating the accuracy of the basic model with the Cobb–Douglas function.
To calculate the parameters of the energy efficiency function, it is necessary to use the logarithmic likelihood function [
22,
23,
24], which, in general, can be represented as:
where
is the coefficient of elasticity of energy consumption;
is the total variance of the energy consumption error;
is the parameter of the error density function;
is the observation number;
is the distribution density function of the standard normal distribution; and
is the error of the predicted value of the volume of work performed
(3) of the amount of energy consumed
(3). It should also be noted that the choice of the distribution form can also affect the accuracy of the model and, as a result, the reliability of the results obtained. But, as we noted earlier, in the framework of this study, we do not aim to find the most accurate model, due to the initial hypotheses put forward, which require primary confirmation.
The parameters of the logarithmic likelihood function make it possible to fit the model using known empirical data. The maximization of the likelihood function is performed using one of the standard optimization algorithms, such as, for example, the BFGS algorithm (Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno algorithm).
The total variance of the
error is the sum of the variances of the stochastic error
and the inefficiency error
. The stochastic error has a normal distribution and has a random effect on the dependent variable—the amount of work that cannot be explained by any obvious reasons for energy consumption. While the inefficiency error has a semi-normal distribution, it does not correlate with the stochastic error and indicates the immediate inefficiency of the processes. At the same time, an increase in the inefficiency value
reduces the expected value of the dependent variable, and the parameter
, calculated as:
It shows the ratio of the inefficiency error to the stochastic error, so that its largest value determines the impact of inefficiency on the consumption of resources for the work performed.
To obtain an inverse (predicted) estimate of inefficiency
(6) for the
-th observation, the following formulas are used based on error variances.
is the error value of the likelihood function and the optimized value
:
Then, use the method of truncated performance ratings (
), allowing for determining the actual evaluation of the efficiency of energy consumption in the performed volume of work, where
indicates the absence of efficiency and
reports the maximum efficiency:
Thus, based on the obtained value of , for each of the known observations, it is possible to determine the randomness in the observed dependence of variables, the efficiency or inefficiency of the achieved result, and the subsequent calculation of the corresponding values of overspending or saving energy resources. At the same time, depending on the amount of sampling of the observation step, the application of this model can be implemented both for the resulting analysis of shift or monthly ECO activities, and as an operational dynamic assessment when monitoring the progress of work.
In addition, in order to test the hypotheses about the affiliation of the observed parameters to other forms of distribution, in this work, we redefined the likelihood function. Thus, acting by analogy with [
24,
25], the original form of the function (9) for the normal/semi-normal form of the distribution was transformed into the normal/exponential:
So, as a result, the evaluation was carried out for the following types of functions:
The SFA/Cobb–Douglas function with the normal/semi-normal form of the parameter distribution in the likelihood function;
The SFA/Cobb–Douglas function with the normal/exponential form of the parameter distribution in the likelihood function;
The SFA/Translog function with a normal/semi-normal distribution of parameters in the likelihood function;
The SFA/Translog function with a normal/exponential distribution of parameters in the likelihood function.
Figure 1 illustrates the application of the SFA function for analyzing the results of ECO activities in the performance of production processes of mining enterprises proposed in this study. The basic idea is:
In the primary exclusion of abnormal values (red dots) to offset the influence of extreme data;
Calculating the function and obtaining the efficiency frontier using estimates of ;
An integral assessment of the distribution of the general population relative to the efficiency frontier, calculating the volumes of overspent energy resources
and saved energy resources ;
Comparing the estimates obtained with the results of the SEC application.