New Energy Policies and Informal Cultural Norms Promoting Carbon Equity in Chinese Cities: Synergistic Effects and Regional Heterogeneity

Abstract

In the era of energy transition, there is a lack of targeted research on the synergistic effects of new energy policies and informal institutions on carbon equity. This study examines how new energy policies influence urban carbon equity, with a focus on the mediating role of cultural forces. Utilizing panel data from 256 Chinese cities (2000–2021) and employing the New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy as a quasi-natural experiment, this study adopts a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach to identify causal relationships. Key findings reveal: (1) China has been accompanied by a rise in carbon distribution inequity measured through the cumulative distribution patterns of carbon emissions and economic outcomes, highlighting the equity-efficiency trade-off. (2) The NEDC policy, while advancing energy transition, inadvertently exacerbates urban carbon inequity. The conclusion is robust to parallel trend tests, placebo analyses, and controls for concurrent policies. (3) Confucianism, as an informal institutional force, can effectively mitigate the urban policy-driven inequities. (4) Heterogeneity analysis finds that the synergistic effect of Confucianism and the policy is more significant in non-old industrial base cities and non-resource-dependent cities. Theoretically, this research bridges energy transition literature with institutional theory by revealing the compensatory role of cultural systems in formal policy frameworks. Practically, it advocates for culturally informed energy governance models, proposing Confucian principles of harmony and collective responsibility as design pillars for equitable sustainability transitions.

1. Introduction

The global imperative for climate mitigation demands a fundamental restructuring of energy systems [1], yet the equity implications of such transitions remain critically understudied. China’s unique dual identity—as both the world’s largest carbon emitter and a pioneering force in renewable deployment—provides a pivotal testing ground for reconciling decarbonization with distributive justice. Recent advances in hydrogen technologies—such as electrochemical production methods and advanced materials-based storage energy systems—offer scalable pathways to bridge energy transformation [2,3]. While fossil fuels still dominate the national energy matrix, strategic interventions like the New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) policy have catalyzed localized energy transitions through multi-level governance innovations [4]. These measures have significantly elevated clean energy adoption rates, with pilot cities demonstrating accelerated renewable integration alongside sustained economic growth compared to non-participating counterparts [5]. However, the prevailing transition paradigm exhibits a critical tension: techno-economic efficiency metrics prioritize cost-optimal emission reductions [6,7], whereas equitable transitions require spatially and socially balanced allocation of decarbonization burdens and benefits. The equity-efficiency paradox is particularly pronounced in China’s institutional context. Confucian governance traditions, which emphasize hierarchical responsibility allocation and culturally mediated social contracts [8,9], tend to underlie the political economy of carbon rights distribution. Consequently, developing transition frameworks that simultaneously optimize technical pathways and institutionalize carbon equity mechanisms emerges as both a scholarly imperative and a governance necessity.

Current research on carbon equity focuses on three primary domains: measurement and evaluation of carbon emission equity, analysis of factors affecting carbon emission equity, and design of carbon emission allocation and compensation mechanisms based on the principle of equity. First, in terms of measuring and evaluating the equity of carbon emissions, existing studies are mostly based on the core principles of economic capacity, responsibility allocation, interpersonal fairness and ecological balance [10], and use quantitative tools such as the Gini coefficient, the Theil index, and the Kakwani index to assess the equity of carbon emissions [11,12]. Second, in the research on the factors influencing carbon emission equity, most scholars regard the income level as the core driver of the phenomenon of carbon emission inequity or disparity [13]. However, comprehensive analyses incorporating multidimensional factors such as economic development, urbanization, energy systems, and industrial composition remain limited. While these studies have revealed the multi-faceted causes of carbon emission disparities [14], they often overlook the role of energy transition policies. Third, in the study of carbon emission allocation and compensation mechanisms grounded in equity principles, existing literature predominantly focuses on constructing equitable and efficient allocation schemes [15,16] but lacks a systematic quantitative analysis of the impacts of these schemes on the equity of carbon emission in practical application. This theory-practice disconnect is particularly pronounced in urban governance scenarios, when one-dimensional models encounter dynamic and complex urban systems, their efficacy tends to be drastically diminished [17]. Specifically, in-depth empirical analyses of how energy policy design and implementation impact carbon emission equity are still insufficient.

The complex economic and demographic dynamics of cities pose a great challenge to a one-size-fits-all approach. China’s prefecture-level cities are characterized by differences in industrial structure and development endowments, which require governance frameworks to be embedded in local contexts. Notably, these contextual frameworks extend beyond mere socioeconomic and demographic parameters but are instead deeply rooted in enduring cultural norms [18]. Confucianism, as a deep cultural tradition, provides a unique perspective for understanding carbon equity issues [19]. Confucianism, with its ecological philosophy of “the unity of heaven and mankind” and ethical concepts centered on “benevolence”, provides a deep cultural foundation for sustainable development [20]. This philosophical system closely integrates environmental issues with social, ethical, cultural, and economic dimensions, emphasizing the symbiosis and harmony between humans and nature [21]. In addition, “moderation”, an important principle of Confucianism, advocates the pursuit of fairness and justice while tailoring governance strategies to specific contexts [22]. When applied to urban energy transition, this philosophical framework endows policy design with humanistic concerns and simultaneously emphasizes a strong sense of social responsibility [23]. This cultural logic promotes a delicate balance between the responsibility for carbon emission reduction and the right to development in practice, providing rationality for the realization of carbon equity. The neglect of traditional cultural regulatory mechanisms in existing research fundamentally undermines the cultural appropriateness of policy design, which constitutes the most notable research gap in the current body of theory.

Based on the above discussion, this study aims to address several key questions: first, can energy transition policies promote the realization of urban carbon equity? Second, do energy transition policies and Confucianism exhibit synergistic effects in promoting urban carbon equity? Finally, is there heterogeneity in the impact of the interaction of these two factors on urban carbon equity across cities with different industrial structures and resource endowments? To answer the above questions, this study empirically explores the impact of energy system transition on carbon equity based on unbalanced panel data from 256 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2021 using a progressive differential model, with a special focus on the unique role of Confucianism in this process, reinforcing the understanding of traditional cultural norms as key determinants of sustainable development paths.

Compared to previous studies, the main contributions of this study can be summarized in three aspects: first, by emphasizing the importance of carbon equity, this study proposes a perspective that complements and deepens the existing efficiency-centered emission reduction strategies, takes the right to development and the equity in the distribution of emission rights as the foundational principles, and quantifies urban carbon equity based on the cumulative distribution curves of carbon emissions and economic development at the district and county levels. Second, the energy transition is incorporated into the research framework of urban carbon equity, and the quasi-natural experiment is utilized to explore the theoretical and practical effects of the NEDC policy on urban carbon equity. Last, this study integrates economic and cultural perspectives, offering new insights into achieving carbon equity. This study advances an institutional synthesis framework that innovatively integrates formal regulatory mechanisms with Confucianism. The systematic analysis of the co-evolutionary dynamics demonstrates quantifiable scalability across both Confucian-heritage societies and institutional ecosystems.

2. Institutional Background and Theoretical Hypotheses

2.1. Institutional Background

Energy transition is an important policy tool for promoting sustainable development, in which the development and utilization of renewable energy is considered a key path to reducing environmental pollution and mitigating climate change. To address global climate change, the Kyoto Protocol proposes three flexible cooperation mechanisms to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction targets through international cooperation, one of which is the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) [24]. As one of the world’s largest carbon emitters, China has prioritized clean energy development and positioned carbon reduction as a cornerstone of its national strategy. Intending to effectively address environmental and climate change issues and implement the goals of the 12th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development, the Chinese government introduced the concept of “New Energy Demonstration Cities” in 2012. This policy framework seeks to embed energy supply and consumption into the core of urban planning by deeply integrating new energy systems with urban construction. Its objectives are to foster the development of new energy industries and technological advancement, optimize the urban energy consumption structure, and gradually phase out the traditional “high-energy consumption, high-emission, high-pollution” economic model—all with the aim of enhancing cities’ sustainable development capabilities [25]. It will gradually get rid of the traditional economic development model characterized by “high energy consumption, high emission, and high pollution” and enhance the sustainable development capability of the city. The declaration mechanism of new energy demonstration cities is characterized by both “top-down” and “bottom-up” approaches. Specifically, the declaration process is authorized by the central government, local governments apply independently according to their conditions, and finally, the central government reviews and approves the application. According to the “New Energy Demonstration City Evaluation Indicator System and Explanation (for Trial Implementation)”, the declaring city needs to meet two basic conditions: firstly, the city’s comprehensive capacity meets the standard, and secondly, the city’s new energy utilization base meets the standard. These conditions are the prerequisites for the declaration work, ensuring that the construction of the demonstration city is scientific and feasible. The National Energy Administration (NEA) conducted a comprehensive assessment of the declared cities based on the basic conditions and evaluation index system, and in January 2014, it announced the list of the first batch of new energy demonstration cities and industrial parks [26]. The spatial distribution pattern of these demonstration cities is shown in Figure 1, covering representative cities in different regions of China, providing practical samples and policy references for the development of energy transition nationwide.

2.2. Theoretical Hypotheses

In the process of promoting the transformation of urban energy systems, the new energy model city policy may not be conducive to the realization of carbon equity in cities. First, China’s decentralized system is prone to the GDP catch-up and environmental “race to the bottom” effects that are common in different counties when weighing environmental and economic development [27]. The counties that rely heavily on traditional energy consumption will blindly accelerate the transformation of the secondary industry into a cleaner one without significantly reducing industrial energy dependence, which will easily lead to the energy consumption rebound effect, resulting in a large scale of energy consumption in the secondary industry in the early stage, increasing carbon emissions, deviating from the allocation of a reasonable amount of emissions, and exacerbating the inequity in carbon emissions in the city [28]. Secondly, from the perspective of constraints, the NEDC policy is a combination of environmental regulation relying on urban space, which explicitly puts forward energy consumption constraints and energy consumption intensity constraint indicators [29]. The “hard constraints” resulting from the command-type environmental regulation policy have a heterogeneous impact on counties with different energy structure endowments, and counties with a high degree of dependence on traditional fossil energy may be penalized for failing to complete the task in time, and thus be forced to take on more responsibility for carbon emissions [30]. Third, from the perspective of guidance, the NEDC policy aims to guide the promotion and utilization of clean technologies and explicitly requires local governments to set up special funds for support, such as cash incentives or tax breaks for new energy enterprises’ technological innovation, transformation, and upgrading [31]. However, in the actual situation of decentralized financial governance in districts and counties, the allocation of resources is often affected by the economic strength of districts and counties and the bargaining power of local governments, which results in a regional lock-in effect of green technology innovation. This effect causes districts and counties with poorer resource endowments to lag behind in the application of technology, making it difficult to achieve rapid reductions in carbon emissions [32], thus exacerbating the imbalance in carbon emission levels between districts and counties. The social equity theory emphasizes the fair distribution of social resources and opportunities, and this principle is also applicable to the distribution of carbon emission rights. In the process of policy implementation, different regions may lead to uneven distribution of carbon emission responsibilities due to differences in resource endowment, economic structure, and development level. Therefore, the following hypotheses are proposed.

Hypothesis 1.

Urban energy transition inhibits the realization of urban carbon equity.

Culture implicitly influences people’s way of thinking, cognitive and practical activities [33]. In the context of the implementation of the NEDC policy, the theory of polycentric governance offers valuable insights into the complex interactions among various stakeholders involved, such as central and local governments, different departments, and social organizations. Polycentric governance theory underscores the significance of coordination, collaboration, and mutual checks and balances among these entities. However, in practice, local governments may face a dilemma between pursuing economic growth and achieving carbon emission reduction targets, which can result in deviations during policy implementation. It is here that the essence of Confucianism, with its social and ethical principles, becomes particularly relevant. As a cultural cornerstone deeply ingrained in Chinese society, Confucianism shapes behavioral norms and moral values. It provides a common ethical framework that can guide decision-making and resource allocation [34].

First, Confucianism emphasizes collectivism and believes that social resources should be allocated reasonably according to people’s contributions and needs. Under the influence of the Confucian idea of “the way of neutrality”, city managers will take into account the interests of the majority group when formulating income distribution policies [35]. In the energy system transition, this concept can guide policymakers to pay more attention to the fair distribution of carbon emission rights and reduce the uneven responsibility of carbon emissions caused by the difference in energy structure. Second, the absence of institutionalized trust mechanisms among stakeholders in carbon quota allocation triggers regulatory arbitrage and strategic gaming, not only impeding policy compliance but also exacerbating systemic resource misallocation through institutional exclusion and reverse selection effects The trust relationship is endogenous to institutions and cultures and is especially built on the foundations of responsibility and traditional culture [36], among others. Confucianism focuses on human relations and moral obligations, and such moral norms are the ideological basis of the credit system, which helps to enhance the trust between different interest groups in the process of carbon emission allocation [37]. In the energy system transition, this trust can promote cooperation and communication between districts and counties, share resources, technologies, and experiences more actively, reduce the waste of resources and conflicts caused by mistrust, and work together to meet the challenges encountered in the energy transition process, and ultimately promote the realization of carbon equity. Third, the unique taxation ideas in Confucianism provide a deep cultural soil and theoretical support for solving urban carbon equity issues. The Confucian principle of “giving to the rich, giving to the poor, and collecting from the poor” emphasizes the balance of income, expenditure, and welfare [38]. In the energy system transition, this principle elevates the societal responsibility of policymakers and implementers, preventing the neglect of carbon equity due to short-term economic gains. It simultaneously guides them to focus on the equitable distribution of financial resources, ensuring that districts and counties with fewer resources receive enhanced support. This dual focus fosters a more just allocation of carbon emissions. Therefore, the following hypotheses are proposed.

Hypothesis 2.

Confucianism can promote the realization of urban carbon equity in the process of energy transition.

3. Materials and Methods

3.1. Model Setting

3.1.1. Baseline Model

In 2014, China launched the New Energy Demonstration Cities (NEDC) policy. Adhering to “clean, efficient, multi-energy complementarity”, NEDC cities integrate urban construction and energy transformation. This paper uses NEDC to characterize energy system transformation [39], employing an empirical model:

$${Gini}_{i,t}=\alpha +{\beta }_1{did}_{i,t}+\sum {\beta }_k{X}_{i,t}+\sum YearFE+\sum CityFE+\sum \left(Province\times Year\right)FE+{\epsilon }_{i,t}$$

(1)

$${did}_{i,t}={Treat}_i\times {Post}_t$$

(2)

Treat_i = 1 for NEDC cities, 0 otherwise; Post_t = 1 post-NEDC announcement, 0 otherwise. To mitigate potential confounding factors and ensure robustness, we included a set of control variables X_i,t. Additionally, city-fixed effects ∑CityFE, year-fixed effects ∑YearFE, and Province-Year fixed effects ∑(Province × Year)FE are included to address potential confounding factors.

3.1.2. Regulatory Effect Model

To verify the role of Confucianism on urban carbon equity in the process of energy system transformation, the following regulatory effect model is constructed:

$${Gini}_{i,t}=\alpha +\gamma {did}_{i,t}·{\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{f}}_{i,t}+{\beta }_1{did}_{i,t}+{\beta }_2{\mathrm{C}\mathrm{o}\mathrm{n}\mathrm{f}}_{i,t}+\sum {\beta }_k{X}_{i,t}+\sum YearFE+\sum CityFE+\sum \left(Province\times Year\right)FE+{\epsilon }_{i,t}$$

(3)

3.2. Variable Selection

3.2.1. Explained Variable

Carbon emission equity means that each unit in the city obtains equal development rights and carbon emission rights allocation space. County-level administrative units in China are grassroots units that combine economic development autonomy with environmental governance responsibilities (Counties refer to county-level administrative units in China, including municipal districts, counties, and county-level cities, which are the basic spatial units for analyzing intra-city developmental disparities). On the one hand, county-level governments have substantial decision-making power in economic activities such as investment attraction and industrial layout, directly affecting regional carbon emission intensity (such as the energy consumption structure of county-level industrial parks). On the other hand, national-level carbon emission policies (such as carbon peaking pilots) need to be implemented through county-level units. Therefore, taking county-level units as the analysis object can accurately capture the matching relationship between development rights and environmental burdens. However, due to significant differences in resource endowments and energy production and consumption structures across counties, coupled with high development fluidity between counties, a one-size-fits-all distribution mechanism is impractical. Additionally, dynamic monitoring through traditional development or emission processes is challenging [40]. Therefore, this paper uses the balance of cumulative distribution patterns of carbon emissions and economic development outcomes as a measure of carbon emission fairness. This approach reflects fairness in the distribution of results and addresses the challenges of dynamic monitoring in development and emission processes. The Carbon Lorentz curve is a manifestation of the development effect and environmental burden brought by the economy and carbon emissions. On the one hand, carbon emissions are essentially generated in the process of economic development of districts and counties; On the other hand, counties have the right to a fair share of carbon emissions commensurate with development. The carbon Lorentz curve at the urban scale quantifies the sorted cumulative distribution function of socioeconomic activities and carbon emission intensity across county-level administrative units. The Gini coefficient, calculated from the area between the Lorenz curve and the absolute fairness line, offers an objective measure of carbon emission distribution fairness, where values closer to 0 indicate greater equity. The formula is as follows [41]:

$${Gini}_{i,t}=1-\sum _{n=1}^j \left(x_{j,t}-x_{j-1,t}\right)\left(y_{j,t}+y_{j-1,t}\right)\left(j=\mathrm{1,2},\dots ,m\right)$$

(4)

where $j$ represents each district and county, $x_{j,t}$ is the reference factor the cumulative percentage of GDP, and $y_{j,t}$ is the cumulative percentage of carbon emissions.

3.2.2. Explanatory Variable

This study uses the New Energy Demonstration Cities policy to characterize energy transition and reveal the impact of energy transition on urban carbon equity. The promotion and deployment of this policy is the result of external forces at the national level. The policy has the characteristics of long-term stability, and the demonstration zone covers many regions in central and western China, providing a rich sample and comparison basis for identifying the effect of the policy. Specifically, the core explanatory variable did was set in the study, and the value was 1 after the policy took effect at the location of the policy, and 0 otherwise.

3.2.3. Moderating Variable

The measurement of Confucianism. The quantification of cultural ideologies, particularly Confucian value systems, with methodological approaches, remains a subject of debate. A central focus of this paper is the degree to which regions have been influenced by Confucianism [42], a construct typically quantified using historical data on Confucian temples, academies, scholarly centers, and the number of Confucian scholars.

In the macro-level study, Chen et al. (2021) measured the concentration of Confucianism in a region by the number of scholars in the Ming and Qing dynasties [43]. However, Chen et al. (2020) demonstrated that the number of scholars during the Ming and Qing periods significantly impacted contemporary education levels [44]. This suggests that the influence of scholar counts on other variables may primarily stem from regional education levels, rather than directly reflecting Confucianism. Regarding Wang and Chen (2025), this study employs the number of Confucian temples as a proxy for Confucianism [36], rather than relying on the number of Jinshi scholars. Confucian temples, as structures dedicated to commemorating Confucius, primarily serve sacrificial functions and thereby more purely reflect regional reverence for Confucian traditions. This measure captures the enduring influence of Confucianism, even after historical events such as the May Fourth Movement and the “Breaking the Four Olds” campaign. The current number of Confucian temples used in this analysis highlights the degree to which local societies value and preserve Confucian heritage, offering an indicator of contemporary cultural influence. To assess the influence, this study integrates it as a moderating factor in regression analyses. It is measured by the natural logarithm of the number of Confucian temples, incremented by one.

3.2.4. Control Variables

This paper accounts for a range of factors that could potentially influence both NEDC policy and urban carbon equity [44,45]. Control variables encompass several key economic indicators. Economic Advancement (Dev) is measured by the annual growth rate of gross regional product, indicating the rate of growth of the city’s economic development. Income Level (Income), represented by the logarithmic transformation of per capita GDP. Fiscal Pressure (Fsc) is ascertained by the ratio of net financial revenue to fiscal revenue, which provides insight into the financial health and stability of a region. Industrial Structure (Str), quantified by the value added of the secondary industry relative to that of the tertiary industry, offers a measure of economic diversification and the balance between different sectors. Investment level (Invest) is the ratio of actual foreign investment utilization to GDP. The use of foreign capital (FDI), represented by the actual amount of foreign capital used in the current year, reflects technological spillover effects and their impact on urban carbon equity.

3.3. Data Specification

The study sample consists of 256 cities at the prefecture level and above in China, spanning the period from 2000 to 2021. Carbon emissions data were sourced from the latest version of the EDGAR v8.0 database (https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/report_2023, accessed on 8 September 2023), specifically utilizing its high-resolution fossil energy carbon emissions grid data at a spatial granularity of 0.1° × 0.1°. These grid-level data were aggregated to the city level based on the geographical coordinates of each region, ensuring precise alignment with urban boundaries. Urban characteristic data were obtained from multiple authoritative sources, including the China Urban Statistical Yearbook, relevant field-specific statistical yearbooks, and the annual statistical bulletins on national economic and social development published by individual cities. To further enhance data accuracy, the study leverages county-level data as the foundational unit for carbon equity calculation, which was then aggregated to the city level. This approach ensures a high degree of granularity and precision in the emissions estimates.

4. Results

4.1. Descriptive Statistics

Figure 2 shows the carbon Lorentz curve at the country level from 2000 to 2020. With the year 2000 as the starting year, the deviation degree of China’s carbon Lorentz curve from the absolute fairness line (solid diagonal black line) continues to increase, indicating that the unfair distribution of carbon emissions is worsening. As shown in Figure 3, China’s carbon emission Gini coefficient has remained within a relatively equitable range (Gini < 0.4). However, the fluctuating upward trend suggests growing disparities in carbon emissions across districts and counties. According to Figure 3, the Gini coefficient of China’s carbon emissions falls within a relative average range (Gini < 0.4). However, the trend observed displays a fluctuating pattern with a discernible upward trajectory, suggesting an increasing disparity in the distribution of carbon emissions across districts and counties.

Against the background of global low-carbon development and energy transition in depth, the spatial coupling relationship between carbon equity and efficiency has become an important proposition in the study of sustainable urban development. We used the Gini index and the Super-SBM model with non-expected output to calculate the carbon emission equity and carbon emission efficiency levels in Chinese cities. The study selected the data results of the time node of 2021, and carried out spatial descriptive analysis and visual expression through ArcGIS 10.8 software to map out the spatial differentiation of carbon emission equity and efficiency in Chinese cities. As can be seen from Figure 4, the eastern coastal urban agglomerations (e.g., the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations) generally show higher carbon emission efficiency, but the fairness level is obviously differentiated; while the cities in central and western China, although the efficiency level needs to be improved, have excellent performance in the evaluation of the fairness of carbon emission, which reflects the ecologically fragile region’s responsibility for the low-carbon development. This spatial differentiation highlights the urgency of conducting urban carbon equity research: on the one hand, the traditional efficiency-centered policy tools may lead to the “stronger the stronger, weaker the weaker” Matthew effect, exacerbating the imbalance of inter-regional emission responsibilities; on the other hand, as the core ethical dimension of sustainable development, the disconnection between carbon equity and efficiency may lead to social contradictions and resistance to governance in the low-carbon transition. As China is now in the overlapping period of energy system restructuring and accelerated urbanization, there is an urgent need to break the single evaluation paradigm of “efficiency first” and establish a multidimensional governance framework that takes into account both equity and efficiency.

4.2. Benchmark Regression

Columns (1) and (2) in

Table 1. Benchmark regression results.

	(1)	(2)
	Gini	Gini
did	0.032 **	0.027 *
	(0.016)	(0.015)
Dev.		0.002 *
		(0.001)
Income		0.091 ***
		(0.013)
Str.		0.006
		(0.010)
Invest		−0.057 **
		(0.024)
FDI		−0.084 **
		(0.035)
Fsc.		0.358 ***
		(0.039)
Constant	0.341 ***	−0.465 ***
	(0.004)	(0.119)
Control variables	No	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes
City FE	Yes	Yes
Prov. × Year	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3678	3678
R2	0.071	0.165

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; *, **, *** denote p < 0.10 p < 0.05 p < 0.01, respectively.

present the results of the data analysis based on the baseline regression model. In Column (1), the regression introduces only the policy variable did, while controlling for time and individual fixed effects. The estimated coefficient is 0.032, which is significant at the 5% significance level, suggesting that the transition of the energy system led to a worsening of carbon inequality. Comparing the statistics of the data within the sample, the mean value of the Gini coefficient within the sample is 0.344, which means that the implementation of the policy correspondingly brought about a rise in inequality within the region of about 10 percent. In Column (2), we further incorporate additional control variables and account for both time and individual fixed effects in the regression model. The coefficient on the core explanatory variable remains at 0.027, which is statistically significant at the 10% significance level. This result is highly consistent with the findings in Column (1), reinforcing the robustness of the relationship between the key variable and the outcome. These findings suggest that the transition may have overlooked the equity of carbon emission controls. Considering the common ecological impacts across regions, urban policies do not appear to be equitable in balancing economic development rights and environmental protection responsibilities within cities [46].

4.3. Parallel Trend Hypothesis Testing

The validity of the DID approach relies on the assumption of parallel trends between the treatment and control groups. Therefore, this paper investigates the common trend between the experimental and control groups before and after the introduction of the policy. As shown in Figure 5, there is no significant difference in carbon equity between experimental and non-experimental areas before the policy was introduced, which is consistent with the parallel trend hypothesis.

4.4. Robustness Test

4.4.1. Placebo Test

A placebo test was required to exclude the effects of other possible unobservable factors. A sample of 1000 was randomly selected from the samples, and each sample was randomly assigned to a demonstration city and a non-demonstration city. Figure 6a,b show the results for the treated group and ${did}_{i,t}$ is randomly selected 1000 times, and the kernel density of the regression coefficients is all around 0 and normally distributed [47].

4.4.2. Eliminate Concurrent Policy Interference

Considering that other policies during the sample period may interfere with the causal identification of this paper, this paper collects and organizes three policies that overlap with the study sample interval and may affect the equity of urban carbon emissions: Broadband China, Green Finance, and Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Fiscal Policies [48]. To ensure robust causal identification, we construct policy-specific dummy variables and incorporate them into the benchmark regression model. The results, as shown in Columns (1), (3), and (5) of

Table 2. Excluding other policy effects.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
	Broadband		Green Finance		Fiscity
did × Conf.		−0.030 **		−0.031 **		−0.030 **
		(0.013)		(0.013)		(0.013)
did	0.027 *	0.047 **	0.027 *	0.049 **	0.029 *	0.049 **
	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.015)	(0.022)	(0.015)	(0.022)
Dev.	0.002 *	0.001	0.002 *	0.001	0.003 **	0.001
	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)	(0.001)
Income	0.094 ***	0.095 ***	0.091 ***	0.099 ***	0.090 ***	0.100 ***
	(0.013)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.018)	(0.013)	(0.018)
Str.	0.005	−0.018 **	0.006	−0.018 **	0.008	−0.017 **
	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.009)	(0.010)	(0.009)
Invest	−0.056 **	−0.070 ***	−0.057 **	−0.070 ***	−0.057 **	−0.070 ***
	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.024)	(0.012)	(0.024)	(0.012)
FDI	−0.082 **	−0.004	−0.084 **	−0.002	−0.085 **	−0.002
	(0.035)	(0.025)	(0.035)	(0.025)	(0.035)	(0.025)
Fsc.	0.362 ***	−0.007	0.358 ***	−0.009	0.352 ***	−0.009
	(0.039)	(0.029)	(0.039)	(0.029)	(0.039)	(0.029)
did × Broadland	−0.030 *	−0.013
	(0.016)	(0.009)
did × GF			0.039	−0.002
			(0.077)	(0.043)
did × Fiscity					0.078 ***	0.042 ***
					(0.023)	(0.015)
Constant	−0.492 ***	−0.587 ***	−0.465 ***	−0.630 ***	−0.465 ***	−0.644 ***
	(0.120)	(0.179)	(0.119)	(0.176)	(0.119)	(0.176)
Control variables	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
City FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Prov. × Year	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3678	3678	3678	3678	3678	3678
R2	0.166	0.802	0.165	0.802	0.168	0.802

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; *, **, *** denote p < 0.10 p < 0.05 p < 0.01, respectively.

, demonstrate that the regression findings remain consistent with the baseline conclusions even after excluding potential interferences from other policies. Statistically, this indicates that the impact of this NEDC on urban carbon emissions is highly stable. The direction or degree of significance has not changed due to the control of other policies. Economically, this stabilizing negative coefficient implies that the studied policy still has a significant inhibitory effect on urban carbon equity.

4.5. Further Analysis

4.5.1. The Moderating Effect of Confucianism

The organizational and cultural climates, as well as governance perspectives, underscore the interplay of cultural values and governance strategies in advancing sustainable energy transitions [49]. As shown in Columns (1) and (2) of

Table 3. Moderating effects of Confucianism.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Gini	Gini	Gini	Gini
did × Conf.	−0.033 **	−0.031 **	−0.035 ***	−0.036 ***
	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)	(0.013)
did	0.055 **	0.049 **	0.054 **	0.054 **
	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)	(0.022)
Grade × year			0.006 ***
			(0.001)
Centre × year				0.005 ***
				(0.001)
Constant	0.344 ***	−0.630 ***	−1.678 ***	−1.690 ***
	(0.002)	(0.176)	(0.291)	(0.315)
Control variables	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
City FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Prov. × Year	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	3678	3678	3653	3653
R2	0.798	0.802	0.803	0.802

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; **, *** denote p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively.

, the coefficients of the interaction terms are consistently negative, indicating that Confucianism significantly promotes carbon equity. This moderating effect essentially reflects the synergistic governance efficacy of cultural institutions and formal policies—when policy shocks are embedded in a high-trust Confucian cultural environment, transaction costs in policy implementation can be reduced. This effect remains robust in Columns (3) and (4), where we include the interaction term between city classification variables and time. The moderating role of Confucianism in the policy effect of urban carbon emissions remains robust after controlling for other contemporaneous policy disturbances. Columns (2), (4), and (6) of Table 2 show that the coefficients of Confucianism and the policy interaction term did×Conf range from −0.030 to −0.031 and are all significant at the 5% level.

Under its unique values and ethical framework, Confucianism offers a cultural foundation and innovative pathway for achieving urban carbon equity. This cultural drive promotes trust and cooperation among different stakeholders, concurrently enhancing policy implementation, optimizing resource allocation, and improving policy transparency and fairness [50]. These effects collectively facilitate a more equitable distribution of carbon emissions in the energy system transition. This corroborates theoretical hypothesis 2: informal norms can correct formal institutional implementation biases, especially in fiscal decentralization systems, and cultural capital can be transformed into a flexible regulatory tool for environmental governance.

In Chinese Confucian culture, “benevolence” and “righteousness” originate from family kinship (e.g., filial piety and fraternal duty) and gradually extend to social relationships [51]. Filial piety is a unique characteristic that emphasizes intergenerational emotional ties, distinguishing it from Western cultures. Based on data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) released in 2021, this paper measures regional Confucianism through the distribution of responses to the questionnaire “Should children bear the responsibility of supporting one’s family?”. The CGSS is a comprehensive, continuous, nationwide social survey organized by the Renmin University of China, using multistage stratified probability sampling, covering all provincial administrative units in China, with a sample size of about 12,000 per year [52]. The survey data span eight core observation years (2010–2013, 2015, 2017–2018, and 2021). For unsampled years within the 2010–2021 study period, missing values were imputed using the linear interpolation method, which calculates the arithmetic mean of adjacent observed years.

One question regarding aging: “Who do you think should be primarily responsible for the aging of elderly people with children?” Based on this question, we calculated the percentage of people in the region who believe that their children should be primarily responsible for their old age. According to

Table 4. Robustness test of moderating effects.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Gini	Gini	Gini	Gini
did × Conf. 1	−0.247 **	−0.245 **	−0.281 ***	−0.274 ***
	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)	(0.097)
did	0.120 **	0.120 **	0.137 ***	0.133 ***
	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)	(0.051)
Grade × year			0.010 ***
			(0.003)
Centre × year				0.008 ***
				(0.003)
Constant	0.361 ***	−0.667 ***	−2.316 ***	−2.399 ***
	(0.003)	(0.255)	(0.560)	(0.641)
Control variables	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
City FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	1846	1846	1846	1846
R2	0.797	0.800	0.801	0.801

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; **, *** denote p < 0.05 and p < 0.01, respectively.

, the moderating effect of Confucianism, which is measured by survey data, is consistent with that shown in Table 3. For regions with a dense Confucian culture, NEDC implementation has had a positive effect on urban carbon equity, as evidenced by a 0.125-unit decrease in the Gini coefficient (according to the coefficient in Column (2): 0.120−0.245 = −0.125). Confucianism has a significant positive effect on the realization of urban carbon equity.

4.5.2. Heterogeneity Analysis

The structural heterogeneity of cities engenders differential policy responsiveness, necessitating tailored governance frameworks for sustainable energy transitions. Cities’ resource endowments and industrial configurations create distinct transition constraints. Accounting for the heterogeneity in cities’ industrial structures and resource endowments enhances the understanding of Confucianism’s role in urban energy transitions and how policy and cultural interventions contribute to achieving carbon equity. Old industrial bases and resource-dependent cities face significant transformation resistance: on the one hand, the capital mismatch and sunk cost effect of traditional industries prolong the lag period of the policy’s effectiveness, leading to structural delay in carbon emission reduction; on the other hand, the “resource curse” and economic lock-in effect of resource-dependent cities may trigger the risk of trans-regional transfer of carbon emissions, and such cities tend to outsource high-carbon production activities under policy pressure, creating a “beggar-thy-neighbor” situation, which exacerbates the carbon burdens of neighboring cities and damage to regional ecosystem.

Based on the national urban resource types delineated in the National Sustainable Development Plan for Resource-dependent Cities (2013–2020), the sample cities are categorized into resource-dependent cities and non-resource-dependent cities [50]. As shown in columns (3) and (4) of

Table 5. Heterogeneity analysis.

	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
	Non-Old Industrial Base	Old Industrial Base	Non-Resource-Dependent	Resource-Dependent
did × Conf.	−0.097 ***	−0.030	−0.054 ***	−0.012
	(0.017)	(0.033)	(0.019)	(0.021)
did	0.149 ***	0.122 **	0.070 **	0.029
	(0.030)	(0.048)	(0.032)	(0.034)
Constant	0.365 *	−0.402	−0.237	−1.475 ***
	(0.214)	(0.273)	(0.232)	(0.334)
Control variables	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
City FE	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Prov. × Year	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Obs.	2412	1209	2204	1414
R2	0.804	0.175	0.786	0.819

Note: Standard errors in parentheses; *, **, *** denote p < 0.10 p < 0.05 p < 0.01, respectively.

, for non-resource-dependent cities, the synergy between Confucianism and NEDC policy significantly promotes urban carbon equity; for resource-dependent cities, the positive effect of Confucianism in promoting urban carbon equity in the energy transition process is not significant. The relatively diversified industrial structure of non-resource-dependent cities makes them more flexible and sustainable in their organizational scope and governance thinking, and better able to translate the equity concepts of Confucianism into practical policies. The long-term dependence of resource cities on specific resources and their mindset of “prioritizing growth over governance” limit the influence of Confucianism in energy transition [53].

To examine whether the urban industrial system significantly influences the synergistic effect of energy transition policies and Confucianism, this paper focuses on the industrial system outlined in the “National Old Industrial Base Adjustment and Reform Plan (2013–2022)” [54], as shown in columns (1) and (2) of Table 5. In non-old industrial base cities, the synergy between Confucianism and the NEDC policy significantly enhances urban carbon equity. However, in old industrial-based cities, the positive role of Confucianism in promoting urban carbon equity during the energy transition process is less pronounced. Old industrial base cities have long been characterized by a single industrial structure and a high concentration of large state-owned enterprises. While the development model of “one industry alone” has brought huge economic benefits, its management mode and benefit distribution mechanism are often relatively rigid, and the endogenous motivation to seek paths for energy use transformation is relatively weak. In this highly administrative and planned economy context [55], the influence of Confucianism has been weakened, making it difficult to promote substantive energy transformation and carbon equity.

5. Discussion

5.1. Energy Transition and Carbon Equity

The energy transition is a key pathway to achieving the goal of carbon neutrality and involves a shift from traditional fossil energy sources to renewable energy sources, as well as improvements in energy efficiency. According to the theory of equity-efficiency trade-offs in economics, the energy transition aims to improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, but this process may exacerbate interregional inequities [56]. Carbon equity, as an organic unity of the three elements of environment, development, and equity, is a key issue affecting the low-carbon transition and social welfare. Scholars have extensively studied the conceptual connotations, measurement indicators, and evolutionary trends of carbon equity at the global, national, and regional scales [57], but there are relatively few empirical studies measuring carbon equity at the city level, especially lacking in the in-depth excavation of intra-city carbon inequality. Examined from an individual’s behavioral perspective, the equity of urban carbon emissions constitutes a key factor influencing individual behavioral decisions. The equity of carbon emissions directly affects the behavioral dynamics of district and county governments. Any bias or unfairness in the distribution of carbon emission rights among different administrative units within the city may weaken the behavioral motivation of the district and county governments, which in turn constitutes an obstacle to the realization of low-carbon goals.

From a macro perspective, when promoting carbon emission reductions, district and county governments focus on local economic development and emission performance while concurrently monitoring the development outcomes and emission status of peer administrative regions. If districts and counties pursue carbon emission targets in isolation rather than synergistically, it often leads to an inefficient allocation of resources and fails to maximize the overall benefits of the city under the framework of welfare economics theory. This study quantifies urban carbon equity through the cumulative distribution curves of carbon emissions and economic development at the district and county levels and proposes an analytical framework based on the principles of the right to development and equity in the distribution of emission rights, which provides a complementary perspective to the existing efficiency-centered emission reduction strategies. The study finds that although the Gini coefficient of carbon emissions at the national level in China is within a relatively average range (Gini coefficient < 0.4), its fluctuating upward trend suggests that the inequity in the distribution of carbon emissions is increasing. In addition, China’s new energy model city policy exacerbates the inequity of urban carbon emissions. This result is consistent with the theory of policy externalities in economics. Although the NEDC policy has achieved remarkable results in technology promotion and energy structure optimization, its implementation has exacerbated the unequal distribution of resources among regions. Early clarification of the impact of energy transition policy implementation on carbon equity in cities is essential for achieving sustainable development goals and promoting coordinated regional development.

5.2. New Energy Policy and Informal Cultural Norms

The realization of carbon equity, while relying on the upgrading of formal systems, technologies, and facilities at the “hardware” level, necessitates parallel advancement in informal systems, such as cultural and conceptual frameworks, at the “software” level [58]. From the perspective of behavioral economics, cultural informal institutions directly influence the implementation effectiveness of energy policies by shaping the decision-making preferences of individuals and organizations. In a cultural atmosphere that emphasizes collective responsibility and environmental friendliness, enterprises are more inclined to incorporate sustainable development into their strategic goals and proactively adjust their production technologies and energy structures to meet the requirements of energy policies. Such culture-driven corporate ethics can reduce the psychological costs for enterprises to implement environmental regulations and decrease resistance to policy implementation. Analyzing from the perspective of transaction cost theory, cultural informal institutions help build trust networks and reduce information asymmetry among enterprises, the government, and consumers. When trust relationships are established between enterprises and policymakers based on shared cultural values, the costs of policy communication and supervision significantly decrease. As a result, enterprises are more willing to cooperate in policy implementation, voluntarily disclose carbon emission data, and participate in the carbon trading market. At the government level, cultural informal institutions have a significant impact on the implementation of energy policies by influencing the administrative ethics and risk preferences of officials. Although innovations in formal institutions, including environmental regulations, are crucial for China’s low-carbon economic transformation, under the unique Chinese government governance model, political promotion tournaments and fiscal decentralization lead to intense competition among local governments [59]. Local officials face information asymmetry and goal conflicts when implementing central environmental policies. In the absence of the reinforcement of public responsibility by cultural informal institutions, officials may, under the pressure of promotion tournaments, prioritize high-energy-consuming industrial projects that can quickly boost their political achievements, resulting in the weakening of environmental policy implementation.

Compared with existing studies, this paper particularly emphasizes the role of cultural informal institutions in urban carbon emissions and examines the synergistic effects and heterogeneities between energy transition policies and cultural informal institutions on carbon emission equity. The study finds that Confucianism, as a unique informal institution in China, interacts with formal energy policies and influences urban carbon equity. Its emphasis on “harmony without uniformity” and “benevolence towards others” helps create a cultural environment that emphasizes public interests and long-term development [60]. This changes the risk preferences of officials, making them more inclined to implement low-carbon development policies and achieve sustainable development goals by promoting industrial structure upgrading [61]. This culture-driven transformation of administrative ethics can effectively mitigate the opportunistic behavior of local governments in environmental policy implementation and enhance the effectiveness of energy policy implementation. In non-resource-based cities and non-old industrial bases, where the service industry accounts for a high proportion and the cost of industrial transformation is low, cultural informal institutions can more easily enhance public environmental awareness and the long-term governance willingness of the government. Therefore, Confucianism demonstrates significant synergistic effects with new energy demonstration city policies. However, in resource-dependent cities and old industrial bases, due to the significant lock-in effect of traditional industries, the promoting effects of Confucianism on enterprise transformation and the administrative thinking of the government are offset by asset specificity and sunk costs, resulting in insignificant policy synergistic effects [62]. Such heterogeneities call for the construction of differentiated policy synergy mechanisms. In non-resource-based cities, efforts should be made to strengthen the integration of cultural informal institutions and policy tools. Methods such as establishing a low-carbon cultural points system and incorporating environmental protection into enterprise credit evaluations can be adopted to form a positive cycle of “cultural guidance—policy incentives”. In resource-dependent cities, it is necessary to improve the constraint mechanisms of formal institutions. Measures such as the construction of carbon emission trading markets and the normalization of environmental inspections should be taken. Only by compensating for regional differences in cultural factors through institutional design can the dual goals of energy transition and carbon emission equity be achieved.

5.3. Research Limitations and Future Prospects

While this study has yielded valuable insights into the impact of new energy model city policies on urban carbon equity and the moderating role of Confucianism, limitations persist. Quantitative methods, though precise, may be less effective in interpreting complex socio-cultural dynamics. Qualitative research methods, on the other hand, can dig deeper into the mechanisms and logic behind these phenomena, but the generalizability of their results may be limited. Future research could address these limitations by integrating quantitative and qualitative methodologies, thereby providing a more comprehensive perspective on energy transitions and carbon equity.

The spatial spillover effects of energy policies are another area of concern. Policies may have spillover effects on neighboring regions in the course of implementation, which are complex and heterogeneous. For example, as economic activities between regions become more frequent, demonstration cities may have demonstration and diffusion effects on the surrounding areas, which in turn affect the carbon emission behavior of neighboring cities. Future research can analyze the spatial spillover effects of energy policies and their impact on carbon equity by constructing spatial econometric models. Dynamic spatial panel models incorporating time-varying connectivity matrices could capture evolving inter-city interactions in economic, technological, and demographic dimensions. Researchers might employ spatial regime-switching models to identify critical thresholds in policy diffusion, complemented by difference-in-differences designs with spatial lags to disentangle demonstration effects from competitive behaviors.

Confucianism, as a cultural informal system, has a moderating role in the energy transition, but its specific transmission mechanism has not been quantitatively analyzed. The cultural informal system influences carbon emissions through channels such as social trust and governance thinking, but the specific paths of action and time lags of these channels need further study. This begins with tracing how Confucian cultural endowments influence mediating mechanisms like social trust networks and corporate governance practices, ultimately shaping emission-intensive production and consumption patterns. Crucially, future work should investigate institutional complementarity between Confucian norms and formal regulations through policy experiments in pilot zones, supported by longitudinal databases tracking cultural-institutional synergies across development stages.

Emerging frontiers call for reimagining carbon equity and energy justice through three lenses: (1) examining how smart city technologies mediate between cultural systems and carbon governance, particularly through AI-driven simulations incorporating cultural variables; (2) developing intergenerational equity models that embed Confucian filial ethics into long-term decarbonization commitments; and (3) constructing transnational frameworks analyzing how localized cultural systems interface with global climate regimes. Realizing these ambitions necessitates forming transdisciplinary consortia integrating energy engineering, cultural geography, and computational social science expertise—ultimately forging context-sensitive transition frameworks that harmonize technological pathways with cultural-institutional ecosystems.

6. Conclusions and Recommendations

6.1. Conclusions

Based on panel data of 256 cities across China from 2000 to 2021, this paper characterizes urban energy transition with NEDC policy, empirically examines the urban carbon equity effect of energy system transition using the DID method, and explores the moderating role of Confucianism in it. The findings of the study include the following:

(1) China’s national carbon emission Gini coefficient, though currently below 0.4, reveals an upward trend from 2000 to 2021, indicating growing inequality in carbon distribution. (2) The NEDC policy appears to worsen urban carbon inequality, a finding that survives rigorous testing, including parallel trend and placebo tests, and remains robust after accounting for confounding policies and factors. (3) Confucianism positively moderates energy transitions, fostering urban carbon equity. (4) The impact of policy synergy between Confucianism and NEDC policy on urban carbon equity is characterized by typical heterogeneity. Specifically, the synergistic effect of Confucianism and NEDC policy is more significant in non-old industrial base cities and non-resource-dependent cities; the positive effect of Confucianism on promoting carbon equity is not obvious in resource-dependent cities and old industrial base cities.

6.2. Policy Recommendations

Optimizing NEDC policy according to local conditions. The policy framework should be adjusted in regions where carbon emissions are unevenly distributed or where the NEDC policy has proven ineffective, ensuring alignment with regional realities. For resource-dependent cities and old industrial base cities, where the positive impact of Confucianism on carbon equity is less pronounced, increased policy support and financial investment are critical. Targeted interventions such as subsidies for green technology adoption, incentives for economic diversification, and support for energy system transformation can help break path dependencies. Culturally resonant areas could amplify bottom-up community-driven transitions anchored in Confucian collectivism. This multi-layered approach—spatially differentiated regulation, cultural-policy synergy, redistributive market mechanisms, and adaptive governance—constitutes a coherent framework to reconcile decarbonization imperatives with interregional equity, aligning China’s climate trajectory with its ecological civilization ethos.

Strengthen the organic integration of Confucianism promotion and energy transition policies. First, Confucianism’s ecological and ethical principles should be embedded in policy communication to increase public awareness and acceptance of renewable energy, thereby strengthening the social foundation for policy implementation. Second, enterprises can be encouraged to adopt Confucian values of responsibility and integrity to enhance environmental stewardship. This can be achieved through incentives for green technological innovation and sustainable industrial upgrades. Finally, aligning Confucian ethical frameworks with modern governance practices can drive green innovation and support equitable energy transitions.

Promote cooperation and coordination of regional carbon emissions. To mitigate the persistent rise in national carbon inequality, a dual-track redistribution system should be established. First, a unified carbon trading platform must prioritize equitable initial allowance allocation, embedding compensatory mechanisms for historically marginalized regions. Second, industrial relocation partnerships should be formalized, requiring high-carbon-capacity regions to provide technology transfer and green industrial spillovers to less-developed counterparts. The framework could be reinforced through fiscal equalization policies that redirect carbon tax revenues toward renewable energy infrastructure in carbon-vulnerable regions.