4.1. Energy Sustainability Assessment
The first part of the study concerns the assessment of energy sustainability. Because this process is multi-dimensional, several characteristics describe it.
Table 1 presents a list of the diagnostic variables chosen to represent energy sustainability. The analysis is conducted for 164 selected countries worldwide (56 developed and 108 developing) from 2015 to 2020, which is why the list of variables is short. It is an eternal dilemma in taxonomic analyses: what is better, characterizing the process with as many indicators as possible or comparing as many territorial units as possible? The second approach is adopted in this research. The data describing energy sustainability come from the SDG Global Database run by the United Nations (
https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/dataportal, accessed on 15 January 2024).
All diagnostic variables concern the achievement of the seventh goal of SD, called “ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy” (United Nations, 2015). The first variable characterizes the share of the population with access to electricity, and the second is the energy intensity level of the primary energy, defined as the energy supplied to the economy per unit value of economic output. In turn, the third variable refers to the proportion of renewable energy use. The first and third variables have a positive impact on energy sustainability, which is why they are marked as stimulants (S), whereas the second one has an opposite impact to the stimulants and is marked as D (see
Table 1).
Table 2 presents selected values of the energy sustainability (
) measure in 2015 and 2020, as well as the rankings generated based on them. In both years considered, Puerto Rico held the first place, despite its relatively low share of renewable energy in total energy consumption. Throughout the entire analyzed period, Puerto Rico had a very low energy intensity, and the entire population had access to electricity. The situation was slightly different in Bhutan, which ranked third in 2015. There, the variable
had one of the highest values, but almost all energy consumed came from renewables (a very high value of the variable
).
It is worth noting that most of the Scandinavian countries—Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—were among the top twelve countries. In Norway and Sweden, the variable was at a relatively low level, and around half of the consumed energy came from renewables. On the other hand, Iceland had a higher level of energy intensity and a higher share of renewable energy use.
At the bottom of the rankings were countries such as Syria, Mauritania, Benin, Papua New Guinea, and Lesotho. In the case of Syria, the position in the hierarchy was influenced by very high values and very low values of the variables and , respectively. Mauritania, Benin, and Papua New Guinea had a lower proportion of the population with access to electricity. In Lesotho, in addition to the low level of the variable , the energy intensity was also high. There were no significant changes in these countries’ positions at the top and bottom of the rankings between 2015 and 2020.
The greatest improvements in the ranking were observed in the case of Venezuela (up 70 places), Kenya (up 65 places), Afghanistan (up 56 places), Uganda (up 54 places), Rwanda (up 50 places), Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe (both up 49 places). In Venezuela, there was a decrease in the energy intensity from 2015 to 2020. In the remaining countries, the improvement was caused by an increase in the population with access to electricity. On the other hand, the most negative changes in the hierarchy were seen for Vietnam (down 44 places), Saint Lucia, Mali (both down 42 places), Bahamas, and Tonga (both down 40 places). In Vietnam, Saint Lucia, and Mali, there was a decrease in the consumption of energy from renewables between 2015 and 2020. The fall in ranking for the Bahamas and Tonga was due to a lack of improvement in the levels of the variables and .
Figure 1 presents the spatial differentiation of the energy sustainability in the extreme years of the study. Part (a) of the figure is for 2015, while part (b) refers to 2020. In both years, a certain trend was observed. Most countries in Latin and South America, as well as Europe, had values of energy sustainability above the median. On the other hand, most countries with the lowest values of the ES measures were located in Africa and southwestern Asia. Furthermore, Africa and Asia had the highest differentiation of energy sustainability between states.
The observations made based on the maps in
Figure 1 are confirmed by the spatio-temporal trend model, the results of the estimation and verification of which are shown in
Table 3. The estimates of the parameters
and
(negative and positive, respectively) indicate that the energy sustainability decreased on average from west to east and from north to south. Additionally, an average increase in the synthetic measure values over time was observed (see parameter
).
The results of the Moran test show that there is spatial dependence between countries in relation to energy sustainability. Both the geographical ( matrix) and economic ( matrix) neighborhoods turned out to be statistically significant, but the connections between the countries adjacent in space are stronger. The importance of the similarity in energy sustainability provides a basis for conducting further analysis by dividing the spatial units considered into regimes of developed and developing countries.
4.2. Assessment of Sensitivity of Energy Sustainability on Servitization Process
The second part of the study starts with the assessment of the spatio-temporal structure of the service value-added in GDP. This stage allows for evaluating the global tendencies occurring in the servitization process. The data characterizing the servitization process were downloaded directly from the World Bank Indicators database (
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator, accessed on 15 January 2024).
Figure 2 presents the spatial differentiation of the share of the service value-added in the Gross Domestic Product in the following years: 2015—part (a) and 2020—part (b). Observing the maps, it is worth noting that the highest values of the considered variable in 2015 and 2020 were in relatively highly developed countries, such as the USA, Canada, countries located in the northern and western parts of Europe, and Australia. Almost all states that belonged to the group with the lowest values were located in Africa. This indicates that the less developed countries focus on industrial development, which allows faster economic growth for them.
When analyzing the spatio-temporal structure of the considered process, it should be noted that the direction of the changes in this case was the same as in the energy sustainability. The share of service value-added in the GDP, on average, decreased in the eastern and southern directions. Therefore, it can be presumed that the servitization process favors energy sustainability. However, the time variable in the spatio-temporal trend model is not significant (see the estimate of
in
Table 4). This is undoubtedly the result of a different growth rate of servitization across the selected countries. The servitization process was observed in almost all developed countries (53 out of 56), but in less than half of the developing ones (42 out of 108). As a result, the average world servitization process is not statistically significant.
Moreover, in the case of the servitization process, the economic similarity of the countries is slightly more important than their physical neighborhood. The Moran statistic for the matrix is higher than for the matrix.
Table 5 shows the results of the estimation and verification of the spatio-temporal sensitivity model in the relationship between energy sustainability and the servitization process. The most important parameter,
, is positive and statistically significant. Its value means that a one percent increase in the share of service value-added in the GDP causes a growth in the energy sustainability measure by 0.1474 percent. This indicates that the progressive servitization process favors energy sustainability. The Moran test results indicate the occurrence of spatial autocorrelation in the model residuals for both connection matrices,
and
, whereas the spatial dependence for the first matrix is stronger.
The Lagrange Multiplier tests for the geographical neighborhoods show significance only for the spatial error (SE) model. The p-values over 0.05 correspond to statistics and , which are responsible for the choice of the spatial autoregressive model. The situation for the economic proximity matrix is different. There, all LM statistics are statistically significant, but and have higher values than and , respectively. As a result, the spatial autoregressive model is considered better. It is worth noting that when the economic neighborhood is used, the model with a more valuable interpretation is adopted. This is an important issue to prefer economic proximity over geographical proximity.
Table 6 presents the results of the estimation and verification of the sensitivity models with spatial dependence. The spatial error model is estimated for matrix
, while the spatial autoregressive model is estimated for matrix
. The parameter
remains statistically significant, but its value is slightly lower than in the base model: 0.1323 and 0.1152 for the SE and SAR model, respectively. The sensitivity of energy sustainability on the servitization weakens when the spatial connections between countries are introduced in the model.
More importantly, the spatial dependence parameters and are also statistically significant. The estimate of the parameter indicates that variables omitted in the model or random components from the neighboring countries influence the energy sustainability in a given country. A positive estimate of the parameter denotes a similarity in the levels of the energy sustainability measure in countries with a similar level of the Human Development Index. Hence, in the next part of the study, the analysis is provided with the division of countries into two separate regimes: developed (the first regime) and developing (the second regime).
Table 7 shows the results of the estimation and verification of the spatio-temporal sensitivity model in the different regimes. The most important aspect is the interpretation of the properties of parameters
and
, which provide information about the impact of the servitization process on the energy sustainability in developed and developing countries. Both of these parameters are statistically significant, but the estimate of parameter
is much lower than that of
. This indicates that the servitization process has had a weaker impact on energy sustainability in the developing countries during the period of 2015–2020. The reason for this difference is the more advanced progress of the servitization process in almost all developed countries, compared to less than half of the developing countries. The developing countries instead focus on other elements of their economy that contribute to faster economic growth at their current level of development.
Similar to the model without regimes, there is spatial autocorrelation in the residuals for both connection matrices. In addition, the geographical proximity shows a stronger correlation. Based on the results of the LM tests, the SE model is chosen for the geographical neighborhood, while the SAR model is chosen for the economic neighborhood. The results of the estimation and verification of the selected models are presented in
Table 8.
Adding spatial dependence to the sensitivity models with the regimes, parameters and are still statistically significant. Nevertheless, differences in their values are observed. Firstly, parameter caused a decrease and an increase in parameters (from 0.2886 to 0.2460) and (from 0.0968 to 0.1062), respectively. Therefore, the impact of omitted variables or random processes from the neighboring countries weakened and strengthened the sensitivity of the energy sustainability on the servitization process in the first and second regimes, respectively.
Considering the economic similarity, the value of parameter did not change significantly, but the value of parameter is much lower than in the basic model. This indicates a decrease in sensitivity in the considered relationship in the group of developing countries when including the similarity of the energy sustainability in the countries with similar HDI levels. Additionally, both models do not show spatial autocorrelation.