Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Energy Demand in the Tertiary Sector
2.1. Investigations of Energy Demand in the Tertiary Sector
2.2. Modeling Energy Demand in the Tertiary Sector
2.2.1. Energy Demand Modeling
2.2.2. Specific Energy System Models
- Articles must describe their methodology for a baseline year, not only using energy balances such as Eurostat, i.e., how energy consumption is subdivided into energy carriers and energy end-use [39];
- Articles should address the tertiary sector.
3. Methodology: Design and Implementation of an Integrated Model
3.1. Design of the Tertiary Sector Model
- 3.
- To match the energy demand of national sectoral statistics from a top-down-perspective with a technology-oriented energy demand using a bottom-up approach to yield a consistent dataset;
- 4.
- To subdivide energy demand by subsectors, energy end-use and energy carriers to point out major areas of energy demand;
- 5.
- To use recent data and statistics to provide an up-to-date analysis;
- 6.
- To yield a transparent calculation method to enhance the credibility of results but to also underline the dependency of input data and assumptions.
3.1.1. Step (1): End-Use Level
3.1.2. Step (2): Company Level
3.1.3. Step (3): Subsectoral Level
3.1.4. Step (4): Aggregated Level
3.2. Implementation for a Case Study of the German Tertiary Sector
NACE | Subsector of Tertiary Sector | Drivers | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
A | Agriculture, forestry and fishing | Employees | 510,000 | 3505 |
C*1 | Manufacturing | Employees | 435,295 | 22,304 |
F | Construction | Employees | 1,990,542 | 6182 |
G | Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles | Employees | 5,010,932 | 12,113 |
H | Transporting and storage | Employees | 2,030,773 | 1803 |
Passengers | 247,800,000 | *2 | ||
I | Accommodation and food service activities | Employees | 1,182,067 | 1830 |
Overnight stays by guests | 495,600,000 | 5,076,154 | ||
J | Information and communication | Employees | 1,140,294 | 4962 |
K | Financial and insurance activities | Employees | 852,350 | 2738 |
L | Real estate activities | Employees | 363,275 | *3 |
M | Professional, scientific and technical activities | Employees | 2,310,911 | 7096 |
N | Administrative and support service activities | Employees | 3,075,934 | 482 |
O | Public administration and defense; compulsory social security | Employees | 1,872,717 | 9076 |
P | Education | Students | 11,217,933 | 29,168 |
Q | Human health and social work activities | Hospital beds | 494,326 | 19,740 |
Employees | 2,912,807 | 946 | ||
R | Arts, entertainment and recreation | Employees | 420,219 | 340 |
S | Other services activities | Employees | 1,154,029 | 1015 |
3.2.1. Step (5): Company Data Acquisition via Survey
3.2.2. Step (6): Subsectoral Statistical Values
3.2.3. Step (7): Energy Balance of Tertiary Sector
3.2.4. Step (8): Validation and Quantification of Tertiary Model
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Baseline Model Output
4.2. Comparison of Bottom-Up Results with the German Top-Down Energy Balance
4.2.1. Validation Results for the Baseline Assumptions
4.2.2. Sensitivity Analysis
4.2.3. Alternative Subsectoral Approach
4.3. Limitations of the Tertiary Model
4.4. Implications for Policymaking
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A. Energy Consumption by End-Uses in the Model
Appendix B. Calibrated Energy Consumption in the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carrier and Subsector for the Year 2019
2019 | Fossil Fuels | Renewable Energies | Electricity | Total | |||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coal | Motor Gasoline | Jet Fuel Kerosene | Diesel Oil | Light Fuel Oil | Liquified Petroleum Gas | Natural Gas | Biomass | Environmental Heat | Solar–Thermal | Geothermal | District Heat | Electricity | All | ||
A | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 69 | 6037 | - | 89,807 | 13,943 | 158 | 26,150 | 86,795 | 25 | 379 | 171 | 2 | 21,924 | 245,461 |
C | Manufacturing (only companies with less than 20 employees) | - | - | - | - | 8863 | 25 | 13,894 | 5491 | 51 | 5 | 24 | 158 | 17,514 | 46,024 |
F | Construction | - | 602 | - | 8958 | 4552 | 5981 | 11,034 | 8005 | 2827 | 60 | 1225 | 89 | 18,149 | 61,481 |
G | Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles | - | - | - | - | 18,803 | 14,906 | 57,757 | 297 | 22 | 670 | 294 | 3632 | 74,002 | 170,381 |
H | Transporting and Storage | - | 142 | 3746 | 2114 | 2905 | 1 | 8259 | 355 | 96 | 10 | 45 | 2041 | 16,626 | 36,339 |
I | Accommodation and Food Service Activities | - | - | - | - | 10,853 | - | 62,775 | 9826 | 581 | 100 | 289 | 14,373 | 64,472 | 163,271 |
J | Information and Communication | - | - | - | - | 479 | - | 7159 | 87 | 6 | - | 3 | 689 | 83,959 | 92,382 |
K | Financial and Insurance Activities | - | - | - | - | 3149 | - | 4396 | 51 | - | - | - | 185 | 5239 | 13,020 |
L | Real Estate Activities | - | - | - | - | 1166 | 37 | 3834 | 159 | 0 | - | - | 224 | 2731 | 8151 |
M | Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities | - | - | - | - | 7335 | 513 | 24,004 | 977 | 4 | - | 2 | 1415 | 85,155 | 119,404 |
N | Administrative and Support Service Activities | - | 132 | - | 1957 | 10,259 | 282 | 29,923 | 1451 | 13 | - | 4 | 1708 | 12,382 | 58,111 |
O | Public Administration and Defense; Compulsory Social Security | - | - | - | - | 5676 | - | 24,750 | 1177 | - | - | - | 1505 | 15,327 | 48,435 |
P | Education | - | - | - | - | 11,085 | - | 48,383 | 28 | 153 | 48 | 85 | 4239 | 30,529 | 94,549 |
Q | Human Health and Social Work Activities | - | - | - | - | 12,917 | - | 39,414 | 402 | 385 | 0 | 164 | 6867 | 35,224 | 95,374 |
R | Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | - | - | - | - | 1283 | 40 | 5281 | 253 | 14 | 36 | 21 | 398 | 5675 | 13,002 |
S | Other Services Activities | - | - | - | - | 4476 | 111 | 13,601 | 479 | 6 | - | 2 | 725 | 30,118 | 49,519 |
Tertiary Sector | 69 | 6913 | 3746 | 102,836 | 117,744 | 22,054 | 380,613 | 115,834 | 4184 | 1309 | 2329 | 38,248 | 519,026 | 1,314,905 |
2019 | Energy Consumption | Share of Energy End-Use | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electricity | Fuels | Electricity | Fuels | ||||||||||||||||
Total | Total | Lighting | ICT | Mech. Energy | Hot Water | Process Heat | Space Heating | Process Cooling | Air Cond. | Lighting | ICT | Mech. Energy | Hot Water | Process Heat | Space Heating | Process Cooling | Air Cond. | ||
NACE Code | TJ | TJ | % | % | |||||||||||||||
A | Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing | 21,924 | 223,536 | 35 | 7 | 37 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 10 | - | - | 46 | 1 | 1 | 52 | - | - |
C | Manufacturing (only companies with less than 20 employees) | 17,514 | 28,511 | 40 | 11 | 19 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | - | - | 0 | 3 | 15 | 82 | - | - |
F | Construction | 18,149 | 43,332 | 65 | 20 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | - | - | 22 | 3 | 0 | 75 | - | - |
G | Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair of Motor Vehicles and Motorcycles | 74,002 | 96,380 | 38 | 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 3 | - | - | - | 3 | 0 | 97 | - | - |
H | Transporting and Storage | 16,626 | 19,714 | 33 | 41 | 7 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 2 | - | - | 31 | 7 | 0 | 61 | - | - |
I | Accommodation and Food Service Activities | 64,472 | 98,799 | 29 | 6 | 17 | 3 | 27 | 8 | 2 | 7 | - | - | - | 9 | 8 | 83 | - | - |
J | Information and Communication | 83,959 | 8423 | 9 | 69 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 20 | - | - | - | 7 | 0 | 92 | - | - |
K | Financial and Insurance Activities | 5239 | 7781 | 25 | 56 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 1 | - | - | - | 8 | 0 | 92 | - | - |
L | Real Estate Activities | 2731 | 5420 | 39 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | - | - | - | 5 | 0 | 95 | - | - |
M | Professional, Scientific and Technical Activities | 85,155 | 34,249 | 37 | 36 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 3 | - | - | - | 5 | 0 | 95 | - | - |
N | Administrative and Support Service Activities | 12,382 | 45,729 | 33 | 37 | 7 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | - | - | 5 | 5 | 0 | 90 | - | - |
O | Public Administration and Defense; Compulsory Social Security | 15,327 | 33,108 | 44 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 1 | - | 1 | 6 | - | - | - | 4 | 0 | 96 | - | - |
P | Education | 30,529 | 64,020 | 55 | 26 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | - | - | - | 10 | 1 | 89 | - | - |
Q | Human Health and Social Work Activities | 35,224 | 60,149 | 51 | 18 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 2 | 3 | - | - | 0 | 8 | 2 | 90 | - | - |
R | Arts, Entertainment and Recreation | 5675 | 7327 | 32 | 33 | 6 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 11 | - | - | - | 7 | 12 | 81 | - | - |
S | Other Services Activities | 30,118 | 19,401 | 37 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 3 | - | - | 4 | 5 | 6 | 85 | - | - |
Tertiary Sector | 519,026 | 795,879 | 35 | 33 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 7 | - | - | 15 | 5 | 2 | 78 | - | - |
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Purposes: | general: description, prediction, forecasting and backcasting specific: ernergy demand, supply side or impact |
Analytical approach: | top-down, bottom-up approach or hybrid |
Methodology: | econometric, macroeconomic, economic equilibrium, optimization, simulation or multi-criteria methodologies |
Mathematical approach: | accounting framework, linear programming, mixed integer programming or dynamic programming |
Geographical coverage: | global, regional, national, local or project |
Sectoral coverage: | single-sector or multi-sectoral models |
Time horizon: | status quo, short, medium or long term |
Data requirements: | quantitative or qualitative technical or monetary |
Purpose of Energy Model | Analytical Approach And Underlying Methodology | Geographical Coverage | Sectoral Coverage | Time Horizon | Disaggregation | Year of Publication | Ref. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
current electricity demand | static BU method consisting of basic drivers and specific energy consumption indicators | Europe (29 countries) | trade, hotels/restaurants, traffic, finance, health, education, public administration, waste, sport, social service, real estate | 2007 | electricity (lighting, ventilation/cooling, circulation pumps/heating auxiliaries, ICT, data center, hot water, space heating, laundry, cooking, refrigeration/freezing, miscellaneous building technologies, street lighting, elevators) | 2010 | [43] |
future electricity demand (FORECAST) | BU method consisting of basic drivers and specific energy consumption indicators | Europe (29 countries) | trade, hotels/restaurants, traffic, finance, health, education, public administration, waste, sport, social service, real estate | 2012–2035 (outlook to 2025) | electricity (lighting, electric heating, ventilation/cooling, refrigeration, cooking, data centers) | 2012 | [41] |
detailed data on energy consumption (EL-TERTIARY) | electricity metering, survey and analysis | EU (12 countries, 123 selected buildings) | offices, schools, universities, kindergartens, hotels, supermarkets, hospitals | 2006–2008 | electricity (central IT, heating, hot water, motor drives, office equipment, refrigeration, ventilation, air condition/cooling, lighting) | 2007/2008 | [44,45] |
energy carrier and end-use | extrapolation from survey in 2004 and 2006 | Germany | construction, offices, small manufacturing, retail trade, hospitals/schools/pools, hotels/restaurants, food, laundries, agriculture, horticulture, textile | 2006–2011 | electricity and fuels (lighting, mechanical energy, hot water, process heat, process cooling, air conditioning, ICT, space heating) | 2009 | [46] |
energy carrier and end-use | extrapolation from survey in 2008 and 2010 | Germany | construction, offices, small manufacturing, retail trade, hospitals/schools/pools, hotels/restaurants, food, laundries, agriculture, horticulture, textile | 2006–2011 | electricity and fuels (lighting, mechanical energy, hot water, process heat, process cooling, air conditioning, ICT, space heating) | 2013 | [47] |
energy carrier and end-use | extrapolation from survey in 2012 | Germany | construction, offices, small manufacturing, retail trade, hospitals/schools/pools, hotels/restaurants, food, laundries, agriculture, horticulture, textile | 2011–2013 | electricity (lighting, mechanical power, hot water, process heat, process cooling, air conditioning, ICT, space heating), fuels (mechanical power, hot water, process heat, space heating) | 2015 | [48] |
Case | Energy Carrier | Total | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indicator I1 | Coal | Liquified Petroleum Gas | Light Fuel Oil | Natural Gas | District Heat | Renewable Energies | Electricity | All |
Baseline values | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1.53 | 0.82 | 2.36 | 0.81 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
Sensitivity: +10% | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1.53 | 0.82 | 2.36 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 1.02 |
Sensitivity: −10% | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1.53 | 0.81 | 2.36 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
Alternate model | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.34 | 0.45 | 1.99 | 0.51 | 0.63 | 0.61 |
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© 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
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Arnold-Keifer, S.; Hirzel, S.; Rohde, C. Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example. Energies 2024, 17, 4486. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174486
Arnold-Keifer S, Hirzel S, Rohde C. Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example. Energies. 2024; 17(17):4486. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174486
Chicago/Turabian StyleArnold-Keifer, Sonja, Simon Hirzel, and Clemens Rohde. 2024. "Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example" Energies 17, no. 17: 4486. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174486
APA StyleArnold-Keifer, S., Hirzel, S., & Rohde, C. (2024). Understanding Energy Demand of the Tertiary Sector by Energy Carriers and End-Uses: An Integrated Bottom-Up and Top-Down Model Taking Germany as the Example. Energies, 17(17), 4486. https://doi.org/10.3390/en17174486