A Long-Term Power Supply Risk Evaluation Method for China Regional Power System Based on Probabilistic Production Simulation

To qualify the risk of extreme weather events for power supply security during the long-term power system transformation process, this paper proposes a risk probability evaluation method based on probabilistic production simulation. Firstly, the internal relationship of extreme weather intensity and duration is depicted using the copula function, and the influences of extreme weather on power security are described using the guaranteed power output ability coefficient, which can provide the extreme scenario basis for probabilistic production simulation. Then, a probabilistic production simulation method is proposed, which includes a typical-year scenario and extreme weather events. Meanwhile, an index system is proposed to qualify the power security level, which applies the loss of load expectation (LOLE) and time of loss of load expectation (TOLE) under different scenarios and other indices to reveal the long-term power security trend. Finally, the long-term power supply risks for the Yunnan provincial power system are analyzed using the proposed method, validating that the proposed method is capable of characterizing the influences of extreme weather on power security. The security level of different long-term power transformation schemes is evaluated.