Strategic Analysis of the Renewable Electricity Transition: Power to the World without Carbon Emissions?

Abstract

This paper explores the role of electricity in the transition to renewable energy to mitigate climate change. A systematic literature review with the Scopus database identified 92 papers relevant to the renewable electricity transition. A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) review of the papers provided a multidisciplinary analysis. The Paris Agreement created a global movement for carbon neutrality to address the threats of climate change, calling for a transition to renewable electricity to lead the way and expand into new sectors and regions. Although smaller renewable technologies are ramping up, complexities thwarting the transition include locked-in assets, high upfront costs, variability of solar and wind energy, infrastructure, difficulty in decarbonizing transportation and industry, material resource constraints, and fossil fuel support. This research found that renewables are not replacing fossil fuels to date but adding further energy demands, so that greenhouse gas emissions rose in 2021 despite an increased renewable electricity share. Without a major shift in the trillions of dollars of subsidies and investment away from fossil fuels to renewables, catastrophic climate change is predicted. This paper found that the Paris Agreement’s commitment to net-zero carbon and the transition to renewable electricity are undermined by record-high levels of subsidies and financing for fossil fuel industry expansion. Transitioning to a climate-neutral economy requires an investment away from fossil fuels into renewable energy ecosystems. Renewable electricity provides possibilities to realize sustainable development goals, climate stabilization, job creation, a green economy, and energy security with careful planning.

1. Introduction

To prevent catastrophic climate change, a rapid global energy system transition from fossil fuels to renewables is needed, with electricity playing a large role [1,2,3]. Renewable electricity is expected to provide more than two-thirds of the world’s useful energy by 2050, under the net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [3]. Renewable energy sources have minimal social and environmental negative impacts and are non-depleting or self-regenerating within a generation, including wind, biomass, geothermal, solar, and small hydro [2].

Whether a transition to renewables can reduce GHG emissions fast enough to mitigate catastrophic climate change is in question. Despite 196 nations signing the Paris Agreement in 2015 to work together on mitigation targets and goals to limit global warming, GHG emissions continue to increase [3,4,5,6,7]. In 2021, GHG emissions rose by 6.9%, or 900 Mt tons [8].

Fossil fuels largely fuel the energy sector, creating two-thirds of total greenhouse gases, with 40% of electricity generation powered by fossil fuels [5]. The total global energy renewable share is only 11.9%, with 6.7% from modern bioenergy and 5.2% from solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and ocean energy in 2022 [4]. The 28.7% renewable electricity share, while higher, has the majority of electricity fueled by fossil fuels, amounting to 59% of all the coal, 34% of the natural gas, and 4% of oil used globally in 2021 [3]. As electricity use is essential to modern lifestyles, powering stoves, lights, and equipment, reducing its sizeable ecological and carbon footprint is key to sustainable development. Exploring questions about the possibilities and barriers to renewable electricity’s role in mitigation and adaptation against catastrophic impacts from climate change is the objective of this paper.

Warnings of dire consequences without rapid net-zero emissions from the IPCC (2023) and the United Nations (UN) point to renewable electricity as a potential solution (UN, 2023) [9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16]. Due to the climate emergency, energy crisis, mounting disasters, and unabated carbon emissions, the IPCC [1] is calling for net-zero electricity and the phase-out of coal to be sped up. Electricity is expected to be the fastest and largest area for renewable energy mitigation by 2030 and beyond, which will impact climate change [9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20] and require transition policies, laws, technology shifts, social support, and economic support [20,21,22,23,24,25]. A holistic, informed approach to development of renewable electricity is needed to address the climate crisis through a renewable energy transition.

This paper conducts a strategic analysis based on a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed journals. A global strategic analysis of renewable electricity has never fully been undertaken to transition to net zero GHG, with analytical papers focusing on regions or nations also rare [17]. A multidisciplinary perspective offers a more holistic analysis rather than the single-issue approach, such as focusing only on technological feasibility.

A systematic literature review is undertaken to contribute a multidisciplinary strategic analysis to guide the renewable energy transition, as no current analysis is available at a global level. The literature review approach is considered highly effective in understanding the existing domain-specific knowledge applied in this case to the renewable electricity transition and thematically analyzing the results. Section 2 details the methods, specifically search strategy and strategic analysis approach. Due to its indexing coverage and search design replicability, I applied the Scopus database’s advanced search tools [21]. Section 3 provides a quantitative analysis of the results using the publications’ Scopus meta-data. Section 4 undertakes a PESTLE qualitative analysis to discuss the key themes [17]. Reports of the IPCC, UN, International Energy Agency (IEA), other gray literature, and key journals not indexed in Scopus supplement the discussion of the findings to critique and update the literature, thereby overcoming Scopus’ limitations. The discussion of the strategic analysis considers renewable electricity in light of current events, including the energy disruption caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, major technological advancements, worsening climate change impacts, and the latest IPCC and UN reports [18,19,20].

2. Methods

This systematic literature review method explicitly details its search strategy to cover multidisciplinary articles on the topic of renewable electricity transition in a way that is reproducible. I undertook a systematic review methodology using appropriate keywords to search for research publications on renewable electricity transition, screening them based on their relevance to this topic, and finally synthesizing information by critical review. This review method chose key terms, databases, analysis methods, and categorization of research after reviewing several literature reviews [17] and reports [18,19,20,26] and adopting some of their key terms and analysis methods. Section 4 examines qualitatively the multidisciplinary issues, using text mining, meta-analysis, and synthesis of evidence as the key steps in analyzing the results.

I searched the Scopus database on the renewable energy transition, focusing on electricity (Figure 1). On 13 February 2023, the title category analyzed “RENEWABLE” and “ENERGY” terms, resulting in 33,406 documents being found. To focus on electricity, the title, abstract, and keyword were analyzed for “ELECTRICITY”, finding 8202 papers. To consider different aspects that shape renewable electricity transition based on key terms from other reviews [17] and reports [1,2,3], the title, abstract, and keywords were analyzed for “POLICY” OR “MARKET” OR “TECHNOLOGY” OR “ECONOMICS” OR “GRID ACCESS” OR “TARGET”, finding 1026 documents, and “NET-ZERO” OR “TRANSITION”, finding 124 documents.

SCOPUS does not include gray literature, like IPCC documents, but does include conference proceedings, and so I limited the articles to peer-reviewed journals by choosing “JOURNAL”, bringing the documents down to 98. Further, the language was limited to “ENGLISH”, which reduced the number to 96 journal articles. A title and abstract scan for relevance reduced the number of papers to 92, removing articles focused solely on building design with little or no discussion of renewable energy or electricity. Ninety-two (92) peer-reviewed articles were identified as applicable to the renewable electricity transition.

A PESTLE (Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) analysis was undertaken. The papers were sorted into these six ‘global themes’ for the PESTLE analysis, discovering many sub-themes for each theme that needed due consideration. Each of the 92 papers was analyzed and found to be relevant to the renewable electricity transition.

A database of the reviewed publications was created in MS Excel to store the metadata for all the literature reviewed. Important geographical information, including the country, studies, country of the funding agency, and first author affiliation, was added to the primary database. The time and spatial distribution of the studies were assessed.

SCOPUS is a fairly comprehensive database with excellent capabilities for advanced search options and meta-data analysis. To overcome SCOPUS’ limitation that government and technical reports, including key reports of the IPCC, IRENA, UNEP, and IEA, are not captured, the discussion brought in reports and materials outside of the literature review. As a result, government and organizational research with the latest data [1,3,18,22], technical reports, and other gray literature provide a critical review and allow the latest data and warnings to inform the analysis.

3. Results

The review process identified 92 articles using the search phrases and limits identified in the method. As shown in Figure 2, the earliest paper that addressed the renewable electricity transition was published in 2003 by Plant [23]. This is six years after the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which had 192 nations agreeing to an average 5.2% GHG reduction by 2012. Plant [23] states “Without a radical change of approach, the United Kingdom will not attain its ‘renewables’ target of generating 10 percent of its electricity requirements from renewable sources of energy by 2010”. Plant [23] was concerned in 2003 about the lack of awareness of offshore renewable energy development and missing targets for renewables, with missed targets being an issue globally, two decades later. In 2004, Myers [24] looked at policies by Denmark to create the most wind energy of any nation in world. Myers also noted that momentum faltered somewhat, upon Denmark integrating into the EU. Denmark remains a leader 18 years later, in 2022, at 80% renewable electricity, with wind renewable electricity at 46.8% and biomass contributing a further 11.2% [4].

The literature search found a lapse in publications addressing the renewable energy transition between 2004 and 2009, with a small number of journal articles leading up to the Paris Agreement in 2015. However, most (90.2%) papers on the renewable energy transition have occurred since 2015, which was the year of the Paris Agreement. The number of journal articles jumped significantly in 2021 when the Paris Rulebook was finalized at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, and the US rejoined the Paris Agreement. Since 2021, as climate change impacts and disasters mount, the number of articles has skyrocketed by 41.3%.

Review articles comprise 13% of the 92 papers (Figure 3). Most papers considered specific case studies focused on particular regions or technologies. Bhattarai et al. [17] provided a review article considering global developments in renewable energy, including but not limited to electricity [17]. Bhattarai et al. [17], after reviewing 248 renewable energy studies, mainly considering technical feasibility, concluded the electricity sector had good prospects for transitioning to net-zero but the transition of other sectors were uncertain. These other sectors included transportation, heating, heavy industry, and desalination. Furthermore, Bhattarai et al. noted that the transition to renewable energy is having trouble keeping up with the growing energy demand [17].

According to Figure 4, the country with the most journal articles on the renewable electricity transition is Germany, at 21% of the 92 articles. Both the UK and the US garnered 12% of the articles. China had 11%, 8% in Australia, and 7% in India (Figure 3). Six of these seven countries found to have the most articles on renewable electricity transition are among the top six coal consumers. The national coal consumption rank is a close fit to the ranking for the number of papers in this literature review. The top consumers of coal, which is used to make electricity, are: China (4102 Mt), India (1024 Mt), the United States (497 Mt), South Africa (188 Mt), Germany (164 Mt), and Australia (92 Mt). In addition, South Africa is among the top ten coal consumers and has four papers [25]. This high number of papers by countries on renewable electricity transition by those consuming the most coal to generate electricity demonstrates these nations are at work researching their transition to renewables, recognizing their role in climate change. The relationship with coal consumption is closer than that for the national electricity producers’ or electricity consumers’ ranking. The map in Figure 5 shows that the papers are concentrated in Europe. Some countries lacked research on renewable energy transition, particularly in Central America and most countries in Africa.

The research articles found by the literature review are multidisciplinary, covering a wide breadth of disciplines, as shown in Figure 6. Scopus categorized most articles within the discipline of energy (33.2%), which is itself a multidisciplinary field that crosses fields of policy, physical science, social science, economics, and many other areas. Further, disciplinary fields include environmental science (18.2%), engineering (16.6%), social sciences (11.8%), mathematics (5.3%), business (4.3%), economics (3.2%), earth science (1.6%), material science (1.1%), agricultural and biological sciences (0.5%), arts and humanities (0.5%), chemical engineering (0.5%), decision sciences (0.5%), and physics and astronomy (0.5%).

Figure 7 shows the word puzzle of the keywords, providing a snapshot of the focus of the papers. The main keywords are “renewable energy” and “renewable energy resources”, rather than electricity perhaps due to the variety of terms including “electricity generation”, “electrical power generation”. “Energy policy” and “alternative energy” were also frequent keywords. Other popular keywords are “energy transition(s)”, “climate change”, “fossil fuels” and “electricity generation”. Further common keywords describe types of “renewable resources”, including “renewable energy sources”, “renewable resources” and “wind power”, as well as “battery storage”. Keywords covered many different economic factors, including “economics”, “economic and social effects”, and “commerce” and factors considering environmental impacts, namely “carbon dioxide”, “emission control” and “sustainable development”.

PESTLE is a strategic analysis that covers a rich array of factors, namely political, economic, sociocultural, technological, legal, and environmental factors. Through strategic analysis, the macro-aspects affecting the renewable electricity transition give a big-picture overview to better assess the situation. Themes are not exclusive to a single factor, but for simplicity, they are assigned the most appropriate one. For example, financial support is both a policy and an economic factor that can fund any aspect of the project, including social aspects such as community planning, or technology. Figure 8 shows the many subthemes for each of the factors in the PESTLE.

Table 1. Summary of paper issues addressed in the literature review.

Theme and Sub-Theme	Author and Date	% of Papers	Definition
1. Political
Green economy	[27,28]	10%	Public and private investment in environmentally-friendly economic activities, assets, and infrastructure to sustain abundant natural resources and the human population.
Job creation	[11,29,30]	3%	New opportunities for paid employment in the renewable sector.
Paris Agreement	[31,32,33]	20%	The Paris Agreement is an international treaty adopted in 2015 that covers climate change mitigation, adaptation, and finance.
Policies	[31,34,35]	98%	A high-level overall plan embracing the general goals and acceptable procedures of a governmental body or company on climate change.
Fossil fuels	[36,37,38]	42%	Energy formed in the Earth’s crust from decayed organic material. The common fossil fuels are petroleum, coal, and natural gas which release greenhouse gases.
Coal	[32,39,40]	24%	Burning coal provides most of the electricity in the world by heating water to produce high-pressure steam that turns a turbine.
Coal Phase-out	[41,42,43]	4%	Ending electricity generation and other energy uses of coal is a Paris Agreement target to keep global warming below 1.5 °C.
Industry 4.0	[44,45]	2%	Facilities and equipment involved in producing, processing, or assembling goods.
Geopolitics	[30,44,46]	4%	The effects of the Earth’s geography (human and physical) on politics and international relations.
Conflict	[31,47,48]	8%	Energy needs, drives, wishes, or demands that are in opposition or are not compatible causing a state of unrest.
2. Economics
Renewable Feasibility	[49,50,51]	27%	Overall viability for renewable energy applications or programs, considering economics, social technology, equipment, and staffing.
Financial incentives	[9,52,53]	13%	Government support either directly or indirectly, including funding programs, grants, and loans.
Renewable Markets	[54,55,56]	71%	Trading commercially to a target market to meet the needs of the customer for profitability. Energy is commercially traded through a transmission and distribution network to a consumer.
Carbon tax	[28,31,57]	7%	A carbon tax is a fee the government imposes on fossil fuels.
Peak oil	[58,59,60]	4%	Timeline after global oil production hits its maximum rate and begins to decline due to finite quality and quantity until it is no longer economically viable to produce.
Auction or tender for renewables	[28,38,61]	4%	Approach to source renewable energy through competitive bids, selected for the lowest price.
Power purchase agreement	[49,56]	2%	Energy contracts are between those who generate and those who will purchase the generated electricity.
Net metering	[28,56]	2%	Energy credits are generated on their electricity bills for the excess electricity generated.
Feed in Premium	[28]	1%	Agreements for renewable energy generation payments based on the wholesale electricity price.
Renewable energy investment	[27,57,62]	54%	Financial resource allocation into projects, technologies and companies for renewable power generation.
3. Social
Consumers’ willingness to pay	[52,63,64]	4%	Willingness to pay for renewables is a measure of social acceptance for the maximum price that a consumer will pay.
Energy Co-op or community ownership	[30,39,65]	3%	Regulations, legislation, and policies that guarantee or encourage full ownership or shared ownership of renewable energy projects for a community.
Sustainable development goal	[34,59,66]	27%	The United Nation’s 17 global goals are to end poverty, protect the planet, and ensure that by 2030 all people enjoy peace and prosperity, including “take urgent action to combat climate change and its impact”,
Energy security	[42,45,67]	43%	Sufficiency of energy resources to meet national energy demand at competitive and stable prices and the resilience of the energy supply.
Renewable Affordability	[65,68]	2%	The extent to which renewables are affordable, relative to the amount the purchaser is able to pay.
Just Transition	[30,44]	2%	A human-centered approach to address climate change, safeguard the rights of the most vulnerable people, and equitably share the burdens and benefits of climate change.
Energy Access	[28,33,44]	37%	A regulatory mandate to provide access to a utility’s transmission and distribution facilities to move bulk power on a nondiscriminatory basis for a cost-based fee.
4. Technology
Carbon lock-in	[47,67,69]	36%	Carbon-intensive infrastructure locks in fossil fuel-dependent development.
Energy return on investment (EROI)	[70,71]	2%	The usable energy extracted from a particular energy source compared to the energy required to extract, process, and distribute that energy source.
Variable renewable energy (VRE)	[13,72,73]	27%	Dispatchable energy fluctuates and is intermittent in nature, such as wind and solar power, rather than controllable, such as dammed hydroelectricity.
Power-to-heat	[37,43,48,74]	36%	Conversion of electrical energy into heat.
Renewable Energy Resources	[75,76,77]	95%	Renewable energy naturally replenishes or is virtually inexhaustible but limited by energy available per unit of time.
Distributed energy	[49,72,78]	25%	Interconnected individual and aggregated small-scale power generation resources into the electric grid, typically close to load centers.
Electric vehicle	[11,12,74]	24%	A vehicle powered mostly or fully by electricity.
Biomass	[7,47,58]	37%	Organic nonfossil material of biological origin constitutes a renewable energy source.
Wind energy	[23,49,55]	78%	Kinetic wind energy convertable to mechanical energy for driving pumps, mills, and electric power generators.
Offshore wind power	[23,79,80]	14%	Wind generated in bodies of water, usually at sea due to higher wind speeds offshore than on land.
Ocean Conversion	[79,81,82]	4%	Process or technology of harnessing the temperature differences (thermal gradients) to produce energy.
Biofuel	[11,34,81]	16%	Biomass feedstocks used primarily for transportation.
Battery	[36,45,48]	23%	A battery is a device that stores chemical energy for electricity.
Waste to Energy	[9,58,79]	7%	Municipal solid waste, landfill gas, methane, and other materials used as fuel.
Solar energy	[51,79]	71%	Conversion of radiant energy of the sun into heat or electricity.
Hydro-electricity	[49,83]	27%	Harnessing power of water in motion to generate electricity.
Grid access	[36,40,84]	26%	All instruments, including laws and regulations that control energy connection, transmission, and distribution to electrical grid.
Off-grid	[50,65,85]	13%	Generation of energy from independent renewables, such as solar and battery storage systems.
Smart grid	[72,75,86]	11%	Advanced technologies to monitor and manage the electricity network from all generation sources to meet various end-users demand.
Critical minerals	[30,39,87]	3%	Essential minerals for producing photovoltaic cells, electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines, and electrical grid connectivity include cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements (REEs).
5. Legal
Climate change Laws	[9,29,88]	29%	Rules enforceable by social or governmental institutions to direct behaviors at all levels to mitigate and adapt to global warming.
Climate Change- Regulations	[10,29,54]	22%	Governmen rulemaking anuthority in order to control an organization or system to mitigate and adapt to global warming
Blockchain	[56]	1%	Blockchain is a distributed database or ledger to verify renewable power generation updated by multiple nodes, or participants, on a public or private computer network.
Renewable Energy Certificate	[24,76,89]	10%	A permit for public convenience and necessity issued by a utility commission to provide some renewable services.
Feed in tariffs	[36,40,49]	23%	Fixed payment agreements for renewable energy generation over an established period.
6. Environment
Adaptation	[46,55,82]	12%	Adjustment to actual or expected climate in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities in humans or ecosystems.
Climate change	[27,42,54,61]	82%	A shift in long-term weather in the mean and/or the variability over decades or longer.
Net Zero emission	[32,43,56]	16%	Achieving an overall balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and those taken out of the atmosphere.
Environmental impacts	[59,90,91,92]	62%	Any environmental change, whether adverse or beneficial, resulting from a facility’s activities, products, or services.
Ecological Overshoot	[93]	1%	Human demands on a natural ecosystem or the globe exceed its regenerative capacity.
Sustainability	[78,93,94]	15%	The ability of natural and human systems to endure equitably.
Climate/Disaster Vulnerability	[61,83,91]	3%	Risk of being adversely affected by climate change for humans or ecosystems.
Fossil fuels	[36,37,38]	42%	An energy source, including petroleum, coal and natural gas, formed in the Earth’s crust from decayed organic material.
Water footprint	[60,90]	2%	Volume of fresh water used to produce or supply the goods or services
Air quality	[52,59,92]	5%	How clean or polluted the air is, which is associated with health effects.
Health Impacts of Energy	[33,54,62]	23%	Climate change increases the risk of illness, as does working or living near industrial, mining, and waste sites for critical metals and fossil fuels.
Carbon neutrality	[32,80,95]	8%	Balancing carbon emissions and absorption from the atmosphere in carbon sinks.

displays the different themes and sub-themes identified in the PESTLE strategic analysis. The papers are sorted into six ‘global themes’. These PESTLE themes overlapped with the ten value areas of the System Value Framework identified by the World Economic Forum [26]. However, government and institutions fell under the theme of policy and law in the PESTLE analysis. Their System Value Framework names: social (jobs, equitable access, reliable access, resilience) and economic (cost, market, investment, feasibility) values, along with government and institutions [26]. Further subthemes overlapped with the PESTLE analysis of renewable energy by Bhattarai [17], although technology subthemes were categorized differently. This literature review approach lists each of the diverse RETs independently, along with variable renewable energy (VRE) and distributed energy. Whereas Bhattarai [17] categorizes technology into different RET systems, including four different combinations of RET systems: solar, the promotion of local technology, and hydrogen/fuel cell batteries. Under each of these themes, important subthemes are identified as key influences shaping the transition.

This PESTLE analysis approaches the environment as the most important defining factor, considering that environmental threats from climate change are the impetus spurring the need for rapid renewable transition. The environmental themes identifies not only the rationale for transitioning to renewable energy but also the ecological impacts of renewables. Climate change is discussed by most papers (82%), with 62% considering more broad environmental impacts, as carbon is one of many factors impacted and is a symptom of ecological overshooting of natural systems (1%). Fossil fuels (42%), being burned for electricity generation, emit greenhouse gases, air pollution, and negative impacts at all stages, including extraction, mining, and gas extraction, particularly fracking. However, renewable technologies also produce waste and have a major water footprint during mining extraction (4%). Adaptation is discussed in 12% of articles, with only a few papers considering electricity’s vulnerability to disasters (3%). Broader ecosystem health aspects of renewables in literature journals include health (23%), net zero emissions (16%), ecological sustainability (15%), carbon neutrality (8%), air quality (5%), and water footprint (2%). Renewable electrical generation replacing fossil fuels is analyzed for mitigation of climate change and environmental issues, with little focus on adaptation or ecological overshoot.

For the theme of politics, the following subthemes were important to assess in analyzing the renewable energy transition: green economy, job creation, Paris Agreement, policies, fossil fuels, coal, coal phase-out, Industry 4.0, geopolitics, and conflict. In the political arena, policies are assessed in almost all (98%) papers. The role of planning was discussed in 56 papers (61% of papers). Most papers assess fossil fuel (42%) and coal (24%) in electricity generation, with only 4% of these papers focusing on coal phase-out and conflict (8%). The Paris Agreement is mentioned as a driver for renewable transition in 20% of the papers, starting in 2017, with only one or two each year until 2020 (5) and 2021 (8). From a multilevel perspective, the Paris Agreement provides direction for national governments, corporations, cities, and municipalities. The green economy is considered in 10% of papers, with few papers discussing job creation (3%) or digitization in industry 4.0 (2%). Job creation and the green economy are important in transition politics to compensate for the fossil fuel economy but are infrequently discussed. The role of geopolitics is also discussed in a few papers (4%), despite how energy shapes the global distribution of power, the risk of conflict, and state relations.

In the economic area, the majority of papers are focused on the role of markets [54,55,56] (71%), considering the feasibility of different technologies [49,50,51] and investment (54%) [27,57,62]. The government plays a role in financing with different taxes and other incentives (13%) [9,52,53]. The government also has disincentives for fossil fuels, such as the carbon tax (7%) [28,31,57]. Utilities offer market-based instruments, including purchase power agreements (2%), net metering (2%), feed-in tariffs, and feed-in premiums (1%) [58,59,60]. The other market consideration for fossil fuels is peak oil and peak minerals, considering that costs become unaffordable with increasing scarcity and that waste and other impacts expand [58,59,60].

In the legal arena, institutionalizing climate change requires laws and regulations. To ensure renewables, certification provides a way to operationalize access to the grid. The renewable energy transition requires national and regional government laws and regulations to enact and enforce change [9,22,28,29,30].

Concerning social benefits, renewable energy promises increased job creation, energy security, and increased local control over energy with community energy [11,29,30]. Renewables can aid energy access (37% of papers discussed) and are considered a key sustainable development goal (17% of papers discussed). The seventh sustainable development goal (SDG-7) is to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all.” Access to electricity in rural and low-income areas is crucial to reaching sustainable development goals [34,59,66]. The negative side of renewables, due to the impact of their increased mining (3%) and waste, is researched in terms of worker and community health (20%).

Regarding technology, the literature explores the diversity of renewable resources, the complexity of technological shifts, the stability of the system, and the need for technology training. For renewable resources, wind is most frequently studied, considering both onshore and offshore, with photovoltaics from solar running a close second. Biogas/biomass and other technologies are infrequently researched. Battery storage and integration into grids of fossil fuel, nuclear, and/or large hydroelectric development generating sources are covered [30,87,96].

4. Discussion

This strategic analysis starts the discussion with the environment as the imperative for change. Furthermore, the discussion delves into the policies, laws, economics, social and technological issues, and actions (PESTLE) relevant to the renewable electricity transition.

4.1. Environment

Environmental concerns are the main driver for the fossil fuel-to-renewable electricity transformation. Climate change receives the most attention in the literature, but the environmental impacts are complex, with not only the carbon cycle being disrupted. This section on the environment discusses renewable electricity in light of climate change, ecological overshoot, fossil fuel impacts, vulnerability to extreme weather, and the scarcity impacts of peak fossil fuels.

4.1.1. Renewable Electricity

Renewables replacing fossil fuels for energy are critical to mitigating climate change as a survival target [1,78,93,94]. The UN states that renewables are the pathway to a healthy, livable planet to reduce the environmental impacts posed by climate change [97]. Net-zero electricity by 2050 from renewables is a target that many countries have adopted to meet global IPCC targets.

Renewable electricity offers many benefits. Renewable electricity could increase resilience and energy security against power outages from increased storms and disasters by facilitating local power generation and distributed power systems [1]. Increasing renewables can prevent carbon releases in the future and mitigate climate change. However, renewables do nothing to reduce the current high levels of carbon already in the atmosphere. As renewable electricity can only limit future emissions, ecological restoration and regenerative farming are needed to draw down historic emissions [1].

The abundance or availability of renewable energies, including solar and wind energy, provides a never-ending supply of local energy. Most countries have significant renewable energy potential from a diversity of energy sources [41,59,81,88]. Solar and wind from onshore and offshore are mainstream in developed countries and are considered to provide the greatest benefit at the lowest cost [1]. Renewable energy generation for electricity includes bioenergy (solid biomass, biogas, and biofuel), geothermal, and small hydropower technology, which does not require reservoirs. Biomass remains important in many countries, particularly developing countries. In Thailand’s Krabi province, the energy mix includes both biomass and biogas from wastes of the palm oil industry in the province and waste-to-energy (WtE), as well as rooftop solar [58]. Large hydro and nuclear plants are not renewable due to their major long-term environmental impacts and are vulnerable to extreme weather like drought and heat waves.

Electricity from most renewable energy sources is carbon neutral at the generation source. Renewable electricity produces between 90 and 99% fewer greenhouse gases (GHGs) compared with coal-fired plants [97]. Renewable electricity causes 70–90% less pollution [58]. The IEA [98] claims renewable resources are sustainable from financial, social, climatic, and environmental perspectives.

4.1.2. Climate Change Impacts

Greenhouse gases, mainly from fossil fuels, warm the globe by 1.1 °C in 2023, with higher global temperatures expected in the future. A “survival target” of 1.5 °C of global warming remains the goal to prevent catastrophic damages from disasters, ecosystem loss, and human health [1]. However, the “survival target” is predicted to be surpassed before 2040 without major mitigation, according to the IPCC [1].

Global warming above 1.5 °C is a recipe for disaster. The IPCC [1] projects an increase in extreme heat, fire weather, heavy precipitation, pluvial flooding, sea level rise, coastal flooding, and severe windstorms over many regions. If global warming increases above 1.5 °C, the probability of compound events in many regions is expected to bring concurrent heatwaves with droughts, compound flooding, and/or fire weather. Climate change’s impact on agriculture is expected to cause nutrition-related diseases, affecting tens to hundreds of millions of people with higher global warming, particularly among low-income households in low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Central America [1]. Although climate change warnings are dire, carbon is not the only issue, with ecological overshoot at a global level disrupting many natural cycles.

4.1.3. Ecological Overshoot

Climate change is a symptom of a larger problem of ecological overshoot, according to Seibert and Rees [99]. Ecological overshoot is defined as the exceedance of the earth’s regenerative capacity, which is occurring globally as humans consume more than the biosphere can regenerate. Ecological overshoot requires more holistic indicators of ecological integrity beyond carbon [93,99]. Different indicators of fossil fuels and renewable technologies over their entire lifespan need to be understood in energy transition research.

Fossil fuels are worsening many indicators, not only carbon levels, but also air pollution, mineral cycles, and ecological integrity. However, the transition from fossil fuels to renewables may worsen environmental impacts because of the resource intensity required to build renewable technology infrastructure if not carefully managed [93]. Although renewables are needed to limit climate change, Seibert and Rees [99] (p. 4507) caution that a sustainable and just transition must consider: “(a) which RE technologies are actually sustainable and viable; (b) the contexts in which they might be so, including the priority uses to which they might be applied; and (c) how to effectively and fairly reduce energy demand” [99].

Although renewable electricity generation emits little or no carbon or other pollution, renewable energy technologies, along their life cycle, have resource inputs, pollution emissions, and other ecological degradation [93,98,99,100]. Renewable technologies need fossil fuels, steel and minerals to make the panels, turbines, etc., which requires consideration of energy return on investment (EROI), pollution, habitat destruction, and other environmental impacts [70,71]. Renewable technologies for wind and solar photovoltaics, as well as batteries and grids, increase society’s dependence on non-renewable resources, including critical minerals.

4.1.4. Critical Minerals

Mineral demand is expected to rise substantially through 2050. The IEA [101] estimates a six-fold increase in mineral resources (e.g., lithium, graphite, cobalt, etc.) used in 2020 for a global transition to “net zero” by 2050. This metal processing will require a massive amount of fossil fuels, equal to that used by humanity for all of history before 2013 [99]. As well as requiring massive resources, such a large demand for metals will result in low-quality ore grades with vast mining waste, including process tailings, overburdened waste rock, wastewater, and dust [99]. Furthermore, at the end of their lifecycle, renewable technologies will result in highly toxic e-waste [98,99,100].

4.1.5. Growing Demand for Electricity Outpaces Renewable Supply

The spiraling demand for electricity is outpacing the growth of renewables, requiring the burning of more fossil fuel for its generation [4]. As electricity consumption demands grow around the world, fossil fuel burning increases to generate electricity, with renewables producing a smaller but growing share. All three of the largest electrical generators burn fossil fuels to generate 80% of their electricity, with coal generating 60% of electricity in China and India and 20% in the US.

Greenhouse gas emissions are surging due to skyrocketing electricity demand [4]. China’s electricity demand increased by 10% in 2021, which amounts to more than all of Africa’s electrical demand [102]. Half of the world’s electricity demand is expected to be from Asia by 2025 [102], with China, India, and Southeast Asia accounting for 70% of the growth in global electricity demand. Asia continues to predominately burn coal and fossil fuels to generate electricity.

4.1.6. Coal and Fossil Fuels Dominate Electrical Generation

Electrical generation remains largely powered by fossil fuels (60% to 70%) [8]. Although Europe’s use of coal and other fossil fuels was expected to decline, this did not occur by 2022 [36,37,38,103]. Despite record oil, coal, and gas prices and profits in 2022, demand for fossil fuels soared [4]. Around the world, despite the Paris Agreement, fossil fuel use continues to grow. Fossil fuels increased in the electrical matrix for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Venezuela between 1990 and 2020, as well as in many EU countries with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine [44]. Further, in most Asian countries fossil fuel burning expanded, particularly for coal [3].

China was the world’s largest coal producer in 2021, accounting for half of global supply, followed by India (10%) and Indonesia (7%) [3]. Coal-generating plants in Asia are typically new, at an average age of 12 years old, with a long life ahead for an average economic lifetime of around 40 years. These locked-in assets tie the emerging Asian economies to fossil fuels, whereas Europe has older electrical generation plants nearing retirement for replacement with renewables.

From coal extraction to burning for electricity, coal has many negative impacts [36]. Coal is the top contributor to climate change, is a leading cause of mercury pollution, and creates environmental health issues for the mining communities and their workers. In 2021, 37% of global electricity production [98] and 30% of global CO₂ emissions were from coal [103]. The burning of coal, mainly for electrical generation, reached an all-time high, surpassing 8 billion tonnes in 2022 [4].

Coal emissions continue to increase, despite climate change warnings and calls for phasing out coal [36,37,38]. The UN Secretary-General [97] calls for the phase-out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and by 2040 in all countries. More than 40 countries have committed to this phase-out, including Canada, Poland, South Korea, Ukraine, Indonesia, and Vietnam, but not most of the largest producers: China, India, the United States, Australia, and Russia.

New exploration, development, and pipelines in the Americas, Russia, China, and other places lock in assets to fossil fuels for the long term. Financial support occurring now for carbon capture, storage, pipelines, and fossil fuels will lock societies into carbon-intensive lifestyles and practices for many decades in the future. For example, Argentina’s discovery of shale gas reveals the difficulty of renewable sources’ entrance into the electricity sector while fossil resources are present with easy access and smaller costs [38,90,104].

Seibert and Rees [99] point to peak fossil fuels mitigating climate change, stating: “As oil, coal, and natural gas inevitably decline, carbon emissions will be dramatically reduced”. Although fossil fuels dominate the global energy sector, the renewable share of electricity is increasing. The total global electricity share of renewables is 28.7% [4].

However, the high energy density of fossil fuels is not easily replaced by renewables for high-temperature industries, heating, and transport. Many industries, including steel and chemicals, depend on fossil fuels to produce high temperatures [4]. Seibert and Rees [99] document the need for fossil fuels to build renewable electricity and recommend prioritizing this before peak oil results in decline and extra costs. They recommend this energy be used for “renewable-based infrastructure and supply chains, after decommissioning the hazardous sites created” [99]. These priorities would have to be part of a larger economic and social planning and political restructuring of new energy and material realities with large-scale ecosystem restoration. Restoration would serve the multiple purposes of not only creating meaningful employment but also reclaiming land and carbon drawdown.

Renewables are not replacing fossil fuels powering electricity or reducing air pollution and carbon due to the overall growth of energy demand. In 2021, renewable electricity generated at 28.7% of global electricity share [4] merely reduced the growth rate of coal and fossil fuel generation of electricity, with increased electricity demand resulting in more carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels. If renewables are to replace phased-out coal by 2030, an increase of 12% per year in renewables from 2022–2030 is needed [4].

4.1.7. Vulnerability to Extreme Weather

Electrical systems are vulnerable to extreme weather events [61,83,91]. Power systems faced challenges in multiple regions in 2022 due to extreme weather events. In 2022, heatwaves, droughts, fire weather, and/or floods will limit energy production from hydropower and nuclear while also increasing demand in China, Pakistan, India, the southern United States, Australia, Europe, and many other regions. Hydropower generators provided limited power during summer droughts [4]. A historic drought in Europe resulted in low hydropower output, putting increased pressure on dispatchable capacities. This drought also limited France’s nuclear generation operation due to cooling water and cooling air temperatures being higher during a heatwave.

The risk of disruptions to electrical power increases with more extreme weather. Winters with increased icing in certain regions topple hydro wires [4], as do worsening hurricanes and storms. In the United States, winter storms caused widespread power outages in 2022, as did fires. Floods, high winds, and other disasters can limit the ability of staff to safely access substations and other assets.

Extreme events reinforce the urgent need to increase the flexibility of the power system and enhance the security of the electricity supply to cope with weather-related contingencies [3]. Electrical microgrids offer some solutions to weather-related issues [3]. The renewable energy transition requires policy frameworks that allow integrated rather than isolated approaches. The resilience and reliability of the electricity system need careful planning, particularly as electricity powers more sectors, including electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and industry.

4.2. Political Factors

Political efforts are at work to coordinate a peaceful and just transition to renewable energy from fossil fuels at multiple governance levels [31,34,35]. To be successful, the transition requires policies to support technology pushes and demand pulls [17]. International treaties are guiding the process as energy supply and climate are central to geopolitics, economic systems, and sustainable development worldwide, requiring cooperation among all actors. These international treaties build momentum for global change.

4.2.1. International Treaties

International treaties and agencies (UN, IPCC, etc.) shape national policies toward renewable energy transitioning away from fossil fuels [31,32,33]. Since the Paris Agreement, deep and rapid transitions away from fossil fuels are called for to avoid climatic tipping points. In 2023, the UN Secretary-General asked for further cuts, calling for net zero emissions of GHG from electrical generation by 2035 for all developed countries and 2040 for the rest of the world [97]. The directive is to increase renewable electricity generation from 28.7% in 2021 at 12%/year to about 50% by 2030.

International treaties, including the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, focus global efforts on climate change, ecosystem health, and poverty alleviation [1]. The Paris Agreement and Kyoto Protocol, under the UNFCC, have engaged nations and other stakeholders in action to develop and implement climate policies [10,11]. After the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 built capacity for GHG national reporting, the Paris Agreement engaged 196 nations in committing to reduce GHG levels in 2015. In 2023, 199 nation-states articulated their priorities for Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) on climate action (United Nations Climate Change).

The UNFCCC’s Paris Agreement, Article 2, engaged nations in a common goal with equitable responsibilities based on differentiated circumstances to play a role in:

(a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. (b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emission development in a manner that does not threaten food production. (c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway toward low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development” [7].

The Paris Agreement is a legally binding international treaty. The legal commitment of nations is to a reporting process for their target goals, without obligation to meet the prescribed target in this bottom-up process [19,20]. Thus, each of the 199 nation-state signatories must devise and regularly update at conferences like COP26 on reaching their targets, called Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), towards collectively reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and limiting global warming to 2.0 °C. However, the NDC targets prior to COP 26 are predicted to cause 2.8 °C of global warming [1], according to models, even if fully implemented. As full implementation of NDC targets is seldom realized, the forecast is dire. To elevate the targets, more than 55 countries adopted net zero GHG or net zero CO₂ emissions targets, often by proposing an accelerated rate for electrical generation.

The Paris Agreement provides the overall direction for countries to set targets, initiate mitigation and adaptation plans, and develop programs in the context of international cooperation and equity [31,32,33]. The UNFCC does not hold nations to their targets or enforce them. Rather, this bottom-up process requires each government to be the change driver within the larger framework of their nation’s legislation, policies, and commitments for moving mitigation and adaptation forward [19,105]. Research and development programs, as well as financial and technological transfers, are recognized as needing support to achieve national targets.

4.2.2. National Policies

Each national government is tasked with creating policies to transition to renewable energy [17]. Each nation is responsible for creating achievable targets, devising suitable policies, developing necessary infrastructure, reforming institutional barriers, building capacity, and creating a conducive environment for research and development. The government’s role includes promoting state-market co-evolution targeted at more efficiently dealing with the energy transition at the national level.

Climate change policies are in place in most countries, with a high-level overall plan to reduce climate change and meet the Paris Agreement targets [31,34,35]. Many transition policies for renewable electricity were announced in 2022. These policies include the REPowerEU, the US Inflation Reduction Act, China’s five-year plan (33% electricity by 2025), and India’s announcement of 50% electrical generation capacity by 2030 [106].

Although these targets are in place, their implementation has been slow. Implementation of RE targets has been limited to date, due in part to the ineffectiveness of most national energy policies in South America [38], Europe [10,11], and the least developed countries [45]. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Saudi Arabia, Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain) are described as making slow and weak progress on renewable electricity. An average of 0.6% of total electricity capacity is renewable [46] in the GCC. Although some new projects have been announced, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia lead the GCC [46]. Similarly, Venezuela’s public policies to meet national RE targets have resulted in minimal newly installed RE capacities and a growing trend of increased CO2eq electricity emissions from shale gas [38]. Modeling Mexico’s renewables found it reached only 30% of its target [92].

Furthermore, many African states lag behind on climate and energy targets. Being historically negligible carbon emitters, many African states have weaker enabling conditions, including limited finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity [30,31,34,62]. The African Union’s Agenda 2063 calls on African states to build reliable and renewable regional energy policies, grids, and energy projects. The targets set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Renewable Energy Policy are 35% renewables by 2020 and 48% by 2030 [31].

The global policy framework encourages international collaboration for technology and financing transfer from the Global North to the Global South. The Green Climate Fund has many countries in Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America, and the Caribbean applying for renewable energy generation and access. $9.2 billion is invested in 200 mitigation and adaptation projects in different stages of implementation in developing countries “to deliver climate action where most needed” [107]. To achieve SDG-7, the Sustainable Energy Fund for Africa (SEFA) works on universal access to cheap, dependable, viable, and up-to-date energy services for all in Africa. The SEFA offers technical support and concessional financing to remove market barriers, build a more robust pipeline of projects, and improve the risk-return profile of individual investments [108]. Improving electricity access for rural and underserved communities is an arduous task requiring funding and supportive government policies to ensure climate change-resilient systems with decentralized renewable microgrid energy solutions [109].

Policies for renewables typically play four different roles: deploy, integrate, enable, or redesign [65]. Deployment policies involve government spending (e.g., grants, rebates, and subsidies) on government-owned assets or in designing and funding policies to attract or support private investment (e.g., capital subsidies, grants, and tariff-based mechanisms such as auctions, feed-in tariffs, and feed-in premiums). Integrating policies include infrastructure investments to bring renewables into the energy system (e.g., regional and national transmission lines, hydroelectric energy storage facilities) through debt, credit instruments, concessional financing, and guarantees. Enabling policies for equity and direct ownership of assets include support for long-term energy planning, capacity building and training, research and development, technical assistance, etc.

Structural change and just transition policies redesign power markets to be conducive to large shares of variable renewable energy. Developing a green economy with renewable technology industries and value chains requires gender equality and social inclusion through taxes, levies, and regulations to facilitate power purchase agreements. In regions with high dependency on fossil fuels for revenue and employment, renewable electrical generation requires policies that promote economic and energy sector diversification by applying just transition principles, processes, and practices. “Demand-pull” and “technology-push” policy instruments are recommended [17] for a successful transition.

4.2.3. Geopolitics

Energy is central to geopolitics. Energy resources, being a precondition of economic growth and most commodities, are sources of wealth, power, and geopolitics. As the locality of resources determines the might and wealth of nations, fossil fuel resources are integrally connected to governments and political conflict. Thus, renewables replacing fossil fuels reshape world geopolitics, destabilizing some existing governments and creating new alliances [19,20].

Energy production, coupled with economic growth, threatens to shift global power dynamics. Countries heavily invested in oil and coal extraction have been slower to transition to renewable electricity, not wanting to discard their investment, markets, and world dominance [30,44,46]. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have the great majority of government revenues from oil and gas, making up over 90% of the gross domestic product in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia [46]. Each country’s oil reserves in 2018 were billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas. The wealth stored in their oil reserves is linked to their slow uptake of renewable electricity, particularly in Bahrain and Qatar [46].

For nearly 200 years, fossil-fuel energy, which supplies more than 80% of global energy, has defined geopolitics. Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C requires leaving a substantial amount of fossil fuels unburned. Phasing out fossil fuels strands fossil fuel resources and infrastructure, with a globally discounted value projected to be around USD 1–4 trillion from 2015 to 2050 [1].

Rapid, large mitigation implies large, disruptive changes in economic structure, with significant distribution shifts within and between countries [1,30,44,46]. Russia weaponized energy with its invasion of Ukraine, cutting off the natural gas pipeline responsible for 40% of the EU’s gas supply and triggering a 41.5% increase in power prices starting in October 2022. Russia continues to profit from fossil fuels through the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which opened in 2019, taking gas to Asia. This pipeline is powering China’s transition to be the leader in renewable components and renewable infrastructure production, which depends heavily on fossil fuels to make the components and mine rare-earth minerals [20]. Ukraine’s invasion expanded fossil fuel emissions in the EU, shifting from Russian gas to coal and nuclear. With the fear of fossil fuel lock-in rising global temperatures, the EU in 2022 increased its renewable energy targets from 40% to 45% of total capacity by 2030, which is supported by 83% of people in the EU as they are worried about energy security after Russia’s invasion.

4.2.4. Green Economy

At the top of the political agenda are economic growth, employment, and health [27,28,110]. The green economy is oriented towards ecological integrity, economic profitability, social inclusion, eco-health, and secure employment. Products and services of a green economy are (i) environmentally friendly and sustainable; (ii) based on renewable energies; (iii) include environmentally friendly fuels and modes of transport; and (iv) energy efficient [27]. A transition to a climate-neutral economy requires decarbonizing traditional production and consumption structures through energy efficiency, renewable energy, and ecological restoration [36,52,67,90].

However, the green economy seldom considers renewable electricity’s negative environmental impacts. Seibert and Rees [99] argue that the economy has to consider ecological overshoot and manage human enterprise within ecological limits. Consuming less energy and material resources to observe ecological limits is required rather than continuing overconsumption and waste through renewables.

4.2.5. Industry 4.0

Industry 4.0 is the digital revolution, which is energy-intensive [44,45]. In Industry 4.0, computers and automation are enhanced with smart and autonomous systems using data and machine learning [44,45]. Innovations like cryptocurrencies are virtual in nature but have a real-world physical footprint. For example, the annual power consumption of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency network accounted for an estimated 0.63% of the world’s electrical supply [111], producing 141 MT of CO₂ generated from coal. This electricity consumption of Bitcoin is as big as that of major nations, ranking 27th behind Malaysia and Poland. This power consumption is larger than the annual power consumption of Norway, Sweden, Pakistan, or the Netherlands [111] and the energy used for gold mining globally. In addition, the energy consumption of global data centers is 250 Twh and global networks is 200 Twh, compared to the global chemical industry at 1349 Twh, the iron and steel industry at 1233 Twh, and air conditioning at 2199 Twh [111].

Industry 4.0 increases electrical and natural resource demands while replacing workers with robots, reducing employment [44,45]. Industry 4.0 is not linked to the SDG goals or climate change targets. Sustainability is not considered in Industry 4.0, with its high energy intensity causing major issues [44,45]. As an afterthought, the emergent Industry 5.0 is envisioned as being “net positive”, using industrial processes to be regenerative to benefit the environment overall without only considering GHG emissions. However, political directives are necessary to shift Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0, considering climate change, environmental impacts and job creation. Industry 4.0 requires a legal framework to regulate energy and material use to bring about an environmental just Industry 5.0.

4.3. Legal Frameworks

The renewable energy transition requires national and regional government laws to enact and enforce change [9,22,28,29,88]. In 2020, laws were introduced to reduce GHGs in 56 countries, which represented 53% of global GHG emissions [1]. Growing numbers of laws and executive orders impact global emissions and are estimated to have resulted in 5.9 GtCO₂-eq yr^–1 of avoided emissions in 2016, which only partly offset global emissions growth [6].

The law has three key roles in the energy transition. First, facilitate the action needed in the energy transition [28,38,57,79]. Verifying that energy is renewable is a requirement. For example, some legal frameworks document electronically that the customers’ quantity of energy used was produced by renewable sources [10,56]. Renewable energy guarantees of origin (REGOs) in the UK are certificates that provide proof that a given quantity of energy was generated from renewable sources and are issued by a participating country’s designated regulatory body (i.e., Ofgem in the UK) to the producer [56]. As tradable commodities in the voluntary electricity certificates market, the REGO is external to the consumer power market that physically delivers electricity.

The EU 27 countries replaced national targets for an EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) in 2014, needing smart contracts to facilitate [56]. For renewable energy trading, blockchain-assisted smart contracts provide a valid account of renewable procurement. Blockchain solutions for smart grids and microgrids can meter infrastructure for energy brokers and manage trading-related events by executing smart contracts [56].

Second, energy laws can set boundaries, constraints, or even outright prohibitions to create a transition to renewable energy and away from fossil fuels [22]. For example, Ontario, Canada, banned coal-fired electrical generation after 2014 [112]. The UN’s call for a phase-out of coal by 2030 is resulting in other regions and countries banning coal.

Different legal instruments are typically needed for different energy carriers and energy infrastructures. New factors need laws, which take time to put into effect or update. For example, the legal status of energy storage took a decade, which prevented lots of development [113] for off-grid systems. The municipality of Perugia, Italy, proposed to build a photovoltaic and energy storage system, but without legislation to regulate the installation of energy storage systems, the project was discontinued. Laws are also needed to regulate Industry 4.0’s energy requirements. Goers [44] wrote about the need for laws to deal with the energy-intensive and other impacts of robotics and other digital technologies, including labor and energy restrictions, to maximize the economic, social, and environmental possibilities of Industry 4.0.

Third, renewable energy laws should foster the energy transition [22]. Laws can explicitly state renewable energy project requirements to allow subsidization eligibility [28,38,57,79]. The governments of several Regional Leaders Summit (RLS) Energy Network partner regions [44] enacted incentive agreements for the use of renewable energies for eligible programs and instruments [6]. The RLS-Energy Network comprises seven regions spanning four continents: Bavaria (Germany), Georgia (USA), Québec (Canada), São Paulo (Brazil), Shandong (China), Upper Austria (Austria), and the Western Cape (South Africa). Another example is the large EU market with 27 countries that will require by law by 2024 that their preferential trading countries meet the climate action standards of Paris and other environmental agreements [1].

4.4. Economic

Economic development is predominately fueled by fossil fuel energy, which is causing global warming and needs to transition to renewables. The economics of renewable electricity are shaped by feasibility, production, market share, and investment, which will be discussed in this section.

4.4.1. Feasibility

Renewable energy generation from solar and wind has recently become feasible and competitive with fossil fuels [49,50,51]. Renewable electricity has become the lowest-cost power option in most regions [18]. Wind and solar have the lowest levelized cost of electricity globally [18] compared to other sources. Between 2010 and 2020, the global weighted average levelized cost of electricity from many renewable sources fell. Utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) project costs fell by 85%, concentrating solar power (CSP) by 68%, on-shore wind by 56%, and off-shore wind by 48% (IRENA, 2022b), while lithium-ion batteries fell by 85%. Solar PV and onshore wind can attract high debt levels due to their predictable cash flows, facilitated by long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) in many countries. In 2020, 83% of solar PV will be privately financed due to its being commercially viable and highly competitive. The private sector invested 75% of its financing into renewable energy technology globally from 2013–2020.

As renewable energy becomes cheaper, fossil fuels become more expensive. In some regions and sectors, ongoing fossil fuel costs are more expensive than transitioning to renewables [49,50,51]. Renewables are increasingly competitive as fossil fuel and other non-renewable electricity prices rapidly escalate in 2021 and 2022 [102]. In the EU countries, wholesale power from natural gas prices in 2022 in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain increased by six times compared to prices from 2016 to 2020 [102]. Electricity prices are breaking historical records globally, following the high prices for oil, gas, and coal, which are their dominant sources of power in most places [4].

Prices have shifted for many renewables after 2021. Historically, solar PV and wind auctions had higher long-term contract prices in the EU markets than wholesale prices [3], but no longer. Spanish auctions in December 2021 were one-tenth of the average Spanish wholesale electricity prices over the last 14 months [102]. This lower cost was despite cost increases for utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind projects of 15–25%.

Access to energy security and sustainability is needed [102]. The four A’s of energy security are: (1) available energy resource supply; (2) affordable energy prices for economic and social development; (3) access to energy for all social actors; and (4) acceptable sustainability [102]. Renewable energy promises to provide energy security with its increasing feasibility and sustainability [102].

Each renewable energy source has its benefits and drawbacks. Solar and wind provide the most social benefit by being accessible, available, affordable, and acceptable [1]. Generating electricity from biomass produces pollution and causes ecosystem impacts, although it is carbon neutral [1]. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has the least benefit at the highest cost, as CCS invests in fossil fuel systems to negatively lock in these stranded assets [101]. Large hydro and nuclear power plants are not renewable, causing major long-term environmental impacts.

4.4.2. Market

Renewable energy supplies only a fraction (28%) of the growing electricity market [107]. Renewable electricity supply is creeping up, while electricity consumption is skyrocketing. Electricity is expanding into new sectors (e.g., transport, heat, and industry) and markets in developing countries [1]. Renewable energy demand is expected to expand further. Electricity has a 150% growth projection in a net-zero emissions economy [1]. The goal requires existing electricity demands to be met by renewables, not fossil-fuel electricity, which will power the new market sectors and regions. This will not occur with a rise in electricity demand coupled with increased coal and fuel use in 2022.

Renewable electricity has to ramp up faster to reach net zero by 2050 [114]. Renewables need to outpace the growth in demand for global electricity. The 28% renewable share of the 27 PWh total global electricity in 2020 is challenged to increase to a 99% renewable share of the 89.8 PWh total global electricity in 2050. This expected skyrocketing of electricity requires almost a dozen times the growth of electricity in less than 30 years.

Electricity demand is growing due to new markets for people, more energy-intensive lifestyles, and industries. As the best available energy efficiency technologies can only diminish CO₂ emissions by 15–30% in energy-intensive industries, these industries must switch to renewable electricity to meet net-zero goals [1]. Some energy-intensive industries (e.g., producers of aluminum, steel, building materials, paper, glass, fertilizers, and plastics) account for about one-third of global energy consumption and a large share of CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels [1]. Many of these energy-intensive industries are not easily powered by renewable electricity.

The grid must expand and upgrade to serve new electrical demand in new places and be more resilient to extreme weather [54,55,56]. Another measure of electrical market share is total grid length, which is expected to increase from 2021 to 2050 by 90% to 120% [4]. Electricity networks are the backbone of electricity systems and need to expand and be future-proof to support energy transitions. The annual investment for the grid network is projected to be an average of USD 580 to 830 billion yr⁻¹ by 2050 [4]. However, complex grid network projects can take a decade or more to deliver, which is twice as long in most cases as developing solar PV, wind, or electric vehicle charging infrastructure.

4.4.3. Financing Renewable Energy

Governments support renewable energy systems directly and indirectly through funding programs, grants, tax rebates, and loans. Often, governments include nuclear, big hydro, and renewable energy, calling this energy ‘clean’. Globally, government-financed clean energy, which includes renewables, i.e., hydro and nuclear, increased by over USD 500 billion during COVID-19 due to the global energy crisis in 2021/2022 [115]. Clean energy support in economic recovery packages by governments worldwide from April 2020 to October 2022 amounted to USD 1215 billion [3]. The biggest share of government support (USD 290 billion) is for low-carbon electricity [115].

Government financial support enables the renewable energy sector to mature [9,52,53]. Financial support is required for immature renewable energy technologies and the renewable electricity ecosystem during the transition. Multiple benefits result from financial support, including developing expertise for the renewable electricity ecosystem, developing countries, and community projects [42,67]. A renewable energy ecosystem requires financing for system development to assist skilled human resources, capital for entrepreneurs, affordable financing for end users, support to facilitate technology innovations for field applications, and comprehensive, reliable information on end-users and bottom-up policy environments [116].

Financial support is a key driver for countries and regions to transition to electricity from renewable energy [9,52,53]. Financial support by government can take the form of: (1) spending such as grants, rebates, and subsidies; (2) debt including existing and new issuances, credit instruments, concessional financing, and guarantees; (3) equity and direct ownership of assets (such as transmission lines or land to build projects); and (4) fiscal policy and regulations including taxes and levies, exemptions, accelerated depreciation, deferrals, and regulations such as purchasing power agreements [107,117]. The “go-to” funding package in most countries combines the requirement for utilities to buy an amount of renewable energy, according to their renewable portfolio standard with a long-term purchasing agreement with price-based incentives for feed-in tariffs (FITS) [118]. In addition, community projects have received subsidized loans for wind turbines and long-term FITs [23,107].

4.4.4. Financing Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Governments give more subsidies for fossil fuels than for renewable energy. In 2022, subsidies for fossil fuels will skyrocket to more than USD 1 trillion, according to the IEA [4]. Fossil fuels have been richly financed by the government over many decades [4,107]. Between 2013 and 2020, fossil fuel subsidies amounted to USD 2.9 trillion globally.

The fossil fuel subsidy in 2022 of USD 1 trillion is the largest ever, almost doubling that in 2021 of USD 532 billion. This 2021 subsidy had increased by 20% from 2019’s pre-pandemic levels. Subsidies doubled in 2021 across 51 countries [107]. In 2020, Europe provided the most subsidies at USD 113 per person, beating out the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) at USD 36 per person [107].

Removing the fossil fuel subsidy is projected by 2030 to reduce global CO₂ emissions by 1–4% and GHG emissions by up to 10%, varying across regions [1]. Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies is needed to level the playing field with renewables and phase out fossil fuels. Removing fossil fuel subsidies would reduce emissions, improve public revenues and macroeconomic performance, and yield other environmental and sustainable development benefits by preventing carbon lock-in [32]. However, governments response has been the opposite when faced with an energy crisis, financing fossil fuels to a greater degree than renewables.

4.4.5. Investment

Banks’ and investors’ commitment to renewables is limited compared to their commitment to fossil fuels [27,57,62]. Keeping within the survival target of 1.5 °C “requires the redirection of USD 1 trillion per year from fossil fuels to energy-transition-related technologies, but fossil fuel investments are still on the rise” [107] (p. 11). Renewable investment in 2022 provided only one-third of the USD 1.6 trillion for renewables required [107].

Financing is still funding the problem at a trillion dollars (USD 953 billion) for coal, oil, and gas, with a smaller fraction going to renewables. That fraction for renewables compared to fossil fuels was one-quarter in 2015 and 2016 and one-half in 2021 and 2022. The future seems invested in fossil fuels against climate stabilization, with energy investment continuing to fund new oil and gas fields. Commitments of USD 570 billion every year until 2030 pay for new oil and gas development and exploration [107].

Investors’ and banks’ financial commitments for fossil fuel development will cause the 1.5 °C target to be surpassed. Between 2015 and 2021, the 60 largest commercial banks in the world—one-quarter of US banks—invested USD 4.6 trillion in fossil fuels [107]. In Africa, capital expenditures for oil and gas exploration, mainly by external companies, rose from USD 3.4 billion in 2020 to USD 5.1 billion in 2022 [107].

Investments in renewable energy technologies are limited to a few areas [27,57,62]. The largest investments go to PV at 43% and wind at 47% (35% onshore plus 12% offshore wind), with limited funding for direct applications. In the off-grid space, investment is mainly in solar home systems (SHSs), with micro- and mini-grids in local industry and agriculture expanding over time (from 8% in 2015 to 32% in 2021). Powering local production creates jobs and income while also enhancing food security and resilience against the impacts of climate variability on agri-food chains [107].

Investment is unequal around the globe. The 120 developing and emerging countries have over 50% of the world’s population but receive comparatively low investment, at 15% of the total in 2022. Countries defined as “least developed” by the IPCC attracted only 0.84%, or about USD 6/person, from 2015–2020 for mostly global off-grid RET investments, which in 2021 fell to just USD 3/person. Electrification rates in this region are among the lowest in the world, with 568 million people lacking access to electricity in 2020 [3,107]. Despite West Africa’s renewable energy potential, the limitations include regional programming, national energy governance structures, and private sector investment. Most of the sub-regional and regional targets across West Africa appear not to be mandatory, with limited economic instruments to attract the private sector [31]. Conflicts and instability result in a lack of transparency, financial challenges for the power sector, overdependence on donor funding, and high interest rates.

4.5. Social

Renewable energy provides a wide range of social benefits, including job creation, health, energy security, and increased local control over energy with community energy. Renewable electricity provides a pathway to reaching sustainable development goals. However, renewables also have a negative side due to the social impacts of increased mining and waste.

4.5.1. Sustainable Community Energy

Access to electricity in rural and low-income areas is key to reaching sustainable development goals [34,59,66]. Isolated microgrids or mini-grids with renewable electricity systems have proven to be a very appropriate way to power remote rural areas [65]. Micro or mini-grids allow local renewable energy resources to provide for the community [30,65]. Isolated microgrids or mini-grid systems have proven to be a very appropriate way to power remote rural areas [65]. These systems provide many benefits, including local generation, preventing costly transmission losses, appropriate installations with low load factors, the avoidance of fossil fuels, and energy independence for the population. Moreover, renewable electricity systems create new local employment and promote users’ participation in decision-making processes [11,29,30].

Decentralized energy solutions have received limited investment due to the fear of an inadequate service network. These investments are usually based on pay-for-service models. Approximately 78% of the total commitments in off-grid renewables in 2010–2021 (USD 2.4 billion) involved the funding of companies or projects using the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) business model. This PAYG provides solar lighting system access without paying upfront by purchasing time units with East Africa investments of USD 917 million. However, the lack of financing for rural projects creates many roadblocks. The National Solar Mission in India was not financed due to a lack of rural project district-level presence and the lack of availability of appropriate, skilled human resources at the local level.

4.5.2. Education and Training to Build and Operate RETs

A workforce able to build, operate, and manage renewable electricity technologies is needed [11,29,30]. Several rural renewable electricity projects have failed due to inept managerial skills, requiring appropriate training and management models. According to studies in Peru, Ecuador, and Bolivia, management models based on microenterprises and cooperatives are the most effective [65]. Co-operatives provide a community development approach to empower local people to build capacity locally to manage the project [30,65].

As of 2022, the global renewable energy sector employed 12.7 million people, up from 7.3 million in 2012 [107]. Energy transition modeling extrapolates that tens of millions of additional jobs are needed to expand renewable investments and installed capacities. To fill the broad range of occupational profiles, concerted action in education, training, and skill building are required. Governments have a critical role in coordinating efforts to align the offerings of the educational sector with projected industry needs—whether in the form of vocational training, apprenticeships, or college or university courses. To attract talent to the sector, jobs must provide decent incomes and good working conditions. Women, youth, and minorities should have equal access to job training, hiring networks, and career opportunities, with opportunities for fossil fuel workers to retrain.

4.5.3. Social Acceptance of Renewables

Social acceptance of renewable electricity is gauged by consumers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for renewable energy. Paying for renewable electricity supply in deregulated retail electricity markets accounts for renewable energy sources’ use and nonuse values [52,63,64]. A review of 70 research articles by Sen [63] reveals that consumers’ willingness to pay for renewable energy helps quantify the extent of public financial support for meeting nationally set renewable energy targets. Social acceptance of renewable electricity can be triggered by the participation of the regional community in organizational and development processes or even through co-ownership. Instruments for creating and further strengthening social acceptance include public campaigns, strategies for information and transparency, and direct support measures. However, renewables’ negative aspects, including social injustices, must be acknowledged to provide a sustainable path forward.

4.5.4. Social Injustices

Social injustices have been documented due to the resources required for renewable electricity technologies [99,100,101,119]. Much of the mining and refining of the material building blocks of renewables takes place in developing countries and contributes to environmental destruction, air pollution, water contamination, land grabs, the risk of cancer, birth defects, and the exploitation of labor [119]. Renewable technologies typically deliver cleaner point-of-use conditions in the Global North, but substantial ecological costs and social damage are displaced to the Global South [119]. Research assessing the occupational, health, and environmental hazards stemming from cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Ghana’s e-waste scrapyards found a “decarbonization divide” at renewable energy product extraction and end-of-life phases [119]. A “decarbonization divide” between low-carbon energy technologies in the global north and patterns of waste and extraction in the global south [99,119].

Electric vehicles and their lithium-ion batteries are now the largest source of cobalt demand [100]. Cobalt demand in electric vehicle batteries is predicted to grow by 500% between 2018 and 2025, when the battery market is expected to be worth $100 billion [100]. The industry projects lithium-ion battery manufacturing will grow by five to ten times between 2020 and 2030 [120]. At the downstream, or “end of life”, low-carbon systems are increasingly becoming e-waste, especially solar panels, batteries, and wind turbines, with solar panels being the largest size and weight. Social injustices in renewable technologies confound social justice claims of the energy transition [99,100,101].

4.5.5. Energy Security

Renewable electricity promises more equitable energy that can serve the many needs of people and reduce the threat of global warming if renewables replace fossil fuels [52,63,64]. For energy security, access to renewable energy needs to meet the “4 A’s”, namely, availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. Ensuring access to affordable, reliable energy seems possible with renewable electricity. Social benefits include new economic opportunities and jobs, better education, and better health. Renewables offer greater protection from and resilience to climate change to limit the social costs of disaster, health, labor, and agricultural productivity. With distributed energy, more sustainable, equitable, and inclusive communities will result.

The affordability of fossil fuels is constrained by the geopolitical power of producing nations and scarcity, but the diversity and abundance of renewable sources disaggregate this power. Unlike fossil fuels, renewable energy prices do not fluctuate with global fuel markets, making them far less susceptible to volatility and price spikes. Unlike oil, renewable resources are not concentrated in a few localities. As fossil fuels are finite resources, at some point they become too expensive or environmentally damaging to retrieve. Record-high gas prices increased reliance on coal and created financial hardships for South Asian countries in 2022 [107]. Most notably, Bangladesh and Pakistan had difficulty procuring gas for electricity, causing power outages and rationing. In contrast, many renewable energy resources, like the sun and wind, will never run out.

The limiting factor in renewable energy access is the scarcity of minerals and financing for renewable technologies. Financing renewable technologies is limited in many places, particularly in Africa and among the poor, to facilitate the transition to renewables. For energy security, the need to finance high-risk and credit-constrained situations is key to SDG-7 [107]. In 2018, climate finance flows from developed to developing countries were below the collective goal under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement to mobilize USD 100 billion per year by 2020 in the context of meaningful mitigation action and transparency on implementation [107]. Further, public guarantees to reduce risks and leverage private flows at lower cost with local capital market development are needed to build greater trust in international cooperation processes.

Energy access (37%) is a key sustainable development goal (17%). The goal of energy, SDG 7, is to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy for all”. Goal 7 is about ensuring access to clean and affordable energy, which is key to agriculture, business, communications, education, health care, and transportation development. The lack of access to energy hinders economic and human development. The global electricity access rate was 91% in 2020, increasing 9% from 2010 to 2020, shrinking the electricity market from 1.2 billion to 733 million [32,80,95].

Equitable access to renewable technologies requires technology transfer, considering the technologies feasibility for developing countries. Feasibility studies in developing countries may find recipient conditions differ from donor conditions [121]. Technology transfer is possible through academic programs, vocational training, and R&D collaboration between developed and developing countries—with very limited mechanisms in developing countries [122].

4.6. Technology

Powering electricity with renewables differs profoundly from power generated by traditional hydrocarbon resources for technology [17]. Renewable technology generates, delivers, and maintains renewable energy from different sources through infrastructure, hardware, and software to meet energy demands and provide power stability [17]. Renewable technologies, such as photovoltaics for solar, biogas/biomass, and wind, supported by battery storage, are presently integrated into grids of fossil fuel, nuclear, and/or large hydroelectric development generating sources [30,87,96]. This technology section considers the complexity of technological shifts, the stability of the system, energy security, and the need for education.

4.6.1. Decentralized or Distributed Technology

Renewable energy technologies transform how electricity is generated, traded, delivered, and consumed [45]. The generation capacity of renewable energy sources is typically smaller compared to fossil-fuel-based systems, with these sources decentralized and distributed over space. In a decentralized system, control is distributed and localized with production [44,45,123]. Thus, renewable energy technologies provide more flexibility, allowing heat and power production and making the grid less susceptible to disasters. Renewable energy fundamentally changes the design of the electric grid. The electric grid was built for large-scale dispatchable fossil fuel energy without consideration of integrating variable renewable energies and small dispatchable renewables to incorporate distributed (or local) generation [30,87]. Decentralized systems can be off-grid. In a distributed system, the components communicate over a network, typically through information communication technology or smart grids, although they are physically separated [44,45,123]. Small-scale energy resources are usually situated near sites of electricity use, such as rooftop solar panels and battery storage, which are possible to expand rapidly.

Although some renewables, like wind farms, are large-scale and interface with transmission networks, most renewables are small-scale [44,45,123]. These renewable technologies need appropriate interconnection at the distribution level. These decentralized or distributed generation facilities need to be planned and implemented to integrate renewable sources into the altered existing grids, considering power stability. A well-balanced combination of the transmission line infrastructure and smart integration-based energy system infrastructure is very important for an effective transition. Renewable electricity is decentralized, unlike other systems, in order to cut down on transmission losses.

Power system planning for renewable electricity requires integration across power market segments (e.g., considering both generation and transmission investment together) and economic sectors (e.g., distribution network and transportation plans to deploy charging infrastructure). Planning for renewable energy penetration into the utility grid, as well as bidirectional power flow between generation and end-users, is needed to facilitate renewable energy development [45].

4.6.2. The Smart Electric Grid

Power generation with renewables is expected to mainly be distributed generation (DG), which benefits from smart grids [72,75,86]. Microgrids or smart grids have energy measurement devices, a fast and efficient communication system, energy storage systems and dynamic control techniques, digital technology, abatement of carbon emissions, and enhanced energy use to network with increased productivity and cost savings [44,45,123].

4.6.3. Energy System Stability

Electrical systems need stability and flexibility for variable renewable power [13,72,73]. The variable energies of solar and wind fluctuate with the weather, challenging system stability, unlike dispatchable renewables (small hydro, biomass, and geothermal). These variable renewable energy sources (VRE) require backup technologies (such as storage and flexible generation). The benefits of electricity networks and interconnections (intra- and inter-regional) cut across all aspects of the power sector, including (a) improved security of supply; (b) improved system efficiency; and (c) improved integration of VRE resources.

Electricity networks enable system flexibility by allowing a broader set of flexible hardware resources to be shared across different geographical regions without transmission and interconnection bottlenecks [36]. In countries with high VRE penetration, variable wind and solar PV can make up more than 60% of the total generation capacity (e.g., Denmark, Germany). From a global perspective, major system integration bottlenecks are not a concern.

The advances in technologies for renewable electricity and heating production, efficient storage solutions, and advanced information and communication technologies allow flexible electrical infrastructures. Distributed renewable energy generation is now widely recognized as the main pathway towards effective integration of VRE into the energy system. If generation costs from solar continue to fall by the end of the decade, the costs will be so low that making hydrogen via electrolysis from solar will be economical.

Climate-related risks on electrical grids, including heatwaves, droughts, extreme cold, and extreme weather events, caused outages around the world. If the renewable electricity mix is diverse, some aspects of climate resilience should improve but may worsen others. System flexibility and diversity are the cornerstones of electricity security. Changing demand patterns and rising solar PV and wind shares will increase the flexibility needed. A diversity of renewables provides stability, flexibility, and resilience to climate change. In Thailand’s Krabi province, the energy mix varies from other places, with biomass and biogas from wastes of the palm oil industry in the province and waste-to-energy (WtE) being seen as having high potential, although both face public opposition, as well as rooftop solar (with limited land options) [58].

4.6.4. Rapid Technological Transition

A rapid technological shift in electrical generation from fossil-fuel-powered to renewable technologies is necessary to mitigate climate change but complicated [6]. Complexities include locked-in assets, high upfront costs [6,124], variability of solar and wind renewables, infrastructure build-up [47,67,69], difficulty in decarbonizing transportation and industry [125]; and material resource constraints [126].

A rapid transition has started for some renewables. Solar PV, batteries, heat pumps, and, to some extent, wind power have gained market share, partly due to their affordability, allowing mass consumption and rapid deployment [127]. Smaller renewable energy units are typically associated with faster learning rates and adoption [128,129]. The shorter lifetimes of small renewable energy technologies result in quicker uptake and larger markets. New performance improvements occur over a shorter lifespan [130], resulting in many adopters. Faster adoption is also market-related, as modular technologies can adapt quickly to niche and strategic markets [131] and different pay points [132]. These renewables tend to be modular and can be constructed quickly [127]. Due to slow deployment, many large-scale mitigation technologies have had fewer learning opportunities, such as large hydropower projects with lengthy construction periods [127].

Small-scale technologies’ popularity and deployment vary greatly by region, marketing, and income. For example, Kazazhtan’s rising energy demand was met with rapid investments in solar PV, wind, and small hydropower. Other areas have been overlooked. The role of developing countries in decarbonizing the electricity sector was overlooked until recently, due in part to their lower use of energy per capita and use of hydropower and biomass. For example, long-term energy system planning for VRE is compulsory to cope with South Asian energy problems [4,133]. Integrating electricity from VRE into the grid requires new approaches to grid expansion and operation.

4.6.5. Heat for Manufacturing

Natural gas, petroleum, and coal are the dominant sources of industrial energy, due to the high temperatures required in many manufacturing industries. The high density of fossil fuels provides the power to heat at high temperatures [134], which renewables cannot do. Fossil fuels are a quadrillion times more energy-dense than solar radiation, a billion times more energy-dense than wind and water power, and a million times more energy-dense than human power [134]. Approximately 70% of industrial heating applications are above 1000 °C, which RE heating technologies do not supply but may be possible if hydrogen becomes economical to produce [134].

Hydrogen’s role in decarbonization lies in hard-to-abate sectors where electrification is deemed technologically infeasible, impractical, or not cost-effective. Among these are heavy industrial processes such as steel, aluminum, and cement production, as well as energy-intensive modes of transport such as aviation, shipping, and heavy-duty trucks [107]. The unfeasible areas for renewable energy presently include the production of RETS.

High temperatures from fossil fuels are required for manufacturing solar panels, high-tech wind turbines, batteries, and many other industrial products [99,100]. Temperatures required for solar panel manufacturing range from 14,800 °C to 19,800 °C, and for high-tech wind turbines, from 9800 °C to 17,000 °C [103]. Currently, this energy is supplied by fossil fuels.

Steel is produced from coal at high temperatures and is a component of most renewable technologies, including wind turbines. Steel production is coal-dependent. Steel is an iron alloy with carbon from metallurgical, or coking, coal. Coke production from metallurgical coal requires 1000 °C [103]. Combining coke and iron to make steel requires blast furnaces at 17,000 °C. On average, 1.85 tons of CO₂ are emitted for every ton of steel produced [103].

Wind turbines require fossil fuels for production. Steel for wind turbines is produced from coke and fossil fuel heat. A typical 3-MW wind turbine weighs anywhere from 430 to 1200 tons. All components must be transported by large fossil fuel-powered trucks from manufacturing to installation sites and then erected using enormous cranes once on excavated sites. The concrete bases for wind turbines require more than 1000 tons of cement to attach to the ground with steel rebar measuring 30 to 50 feet across and six to 30 feet deep. This cement is produced in industrial fossil-fuel-heated kilns at 15,000 °C. At least one ton of CO₂ is emitted for every ton of cement produced, and the cement must then be transported on fossil-fueled trucks to the installation site [100].

4.6.6. Critical Minerals and Batteries

Renewable technologies require large volumes of energy and minerals to manufacture. Critical minerals are a key component of the renewable electricity landscape [30,87]. These essential minerals include cobalt, copper, lithium, nickel, and rare earth elements (REEs) for producing photovoltaic cells, electric vehicles, batteries, wind turbines, and electrical grid connectivity. Copper is needed for electricity grids; silicone for solar PV; rare earth metals for wind turbine motors; and lithium for battery storage [99,100].

The demand for minerals is much higher for renewable technologies than for fossil fuel technologies. Since 2010, the average amount of minerals required per new unit of power generation capacity has increased by 50% with increasing renewable shares. Due to the renewable electricity sector, including technology, battery storage, and networks, copper demand is projected to burgeon from 7 Mt per year in 2021 to 11 Mt in 2030 and 13 to 20 Mt in 2050 [99,100]. Wind farms, solar photovoltaics (PVs), and electric vehicles (EVs) require more minerals to build than their fossil fuel-based counterparts. Six times more minerals are needed for an EV compared to a conventional energy vehicle. Nine times more minerals for onshore wind compared to a gas-fired plant [99,100].

Rare earth minerals are common in wind turbines, which produce significant toxic waste. Roughly 25% of all large wind turbines use permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs), the latest generation technology that uses the rare earth metals neodymium (Nd), praseodymium (Pr), dysprosium (Dy), and terbium (Tb) [103]. The remaining 75% of operating wind turbines use a conventional magnetic generator. Employment of PMSGs is expected to grow given their post-implementation advantages.

Critical mineral demand from the renewable electricity sector is producing waste from mining and processing rare earth metals. A 3.1 MW wind turbine creates 772 to 1807 tons of landfill waste, 40 to 85 tons of incinerator waste, and about 7.3 tons of e-waste [103]. Many rare earth metals are bound up in ore deposits that contain thorium and uranium, both of which are radioactive [103]. One tonne of radioactive waste is produced for every ton of mined rare earth metals. Lithium production is switching from brine-based recovery (mostly in Chile) to concentrate production from hard rock (mostly in Australia), which is more energy-intensive and three times as emission-intensive [101].

5. Conclusions

The paper gives a comprehensive review of issues related to the transition to renewable electricity from fossil fuels. This paper found that the Paris Agreement’s commitment to reduce GHG and the transition to renewable electricity [1,2,3] is undermined by the continued subsidizing and financing of fossil fuel industry expansion [3,4,5,6,7]. In 2021, GHG emissions rose by 6.9%, or 900 Mt tons [8], to be the highest on record. Six years after most nations in the world committed to reducing GHG emissions [8], starting with net-zero electricity, fossil fuel consumption is still going up, and the fossil fuel industry subsidy reached a peak of 1 trillion USD. Investments of USD 570 billion every year until 2030 will finance new oil and gas development and exploration [107]. The “bank run” to finance and subsidize the fossil fuel industry’s record profits before the fossil fuel market collapses has to halt to make that funding available for renewable energy. A rapid transition to renewables to mitigate catastrophic climate change cannot outcompete a growing fossil fuel sector with a tiny fraction of the subsidies and investment that fossil fuels receive.

Many small renewable technologies have gained market share because they are affordable, rapidly deployed, and have large markets. These technologies include solar PV, batteries, heat pumps, and, to some extent, wind power [6]. Despite the market gains, complexities for a rapid electricity transition include locked-in assets, high upfront costs [6,124], variability of solar and wind energy, infrastructure build-up [47,67,69], difficulty in decarbonizing transportation and industry [125], and material resource constraints [126]. High temperatures from fossil fuels are required for manufacturing solar panels, high-tech wind turbines, batteries, and many other industrial products [99,100].

Fossil fuels are a quadrillion times more energy-dense than solar radiation, a billion times more energy-dense than wind and water power, and a million times more energy-dense than human power [134]. Approximately 70% of industrial heating applications are above 1000 C, which renewable electricity heating technologies do not supply but may be possible if hydrogen becomes economically feasible to produce [134]. Seibert and Rees [99] prioritize building renewable electricity infrastructure with fossil fuels before peak oil results in decline and extra costs and reduces overconsumption, which is causing ecological overshoot beyond carbon cycles. Many energy-intensive uses, such as Industry 4.0 and cryptocurrencies, need their impact assessed, considering climate change, ecological overshoot, overconsumption, and social development goals.

Renewable electricity planning should fully incorporate the sustainable development goals to fully realize social benefits, including job creation, health, energy security, and increased local control over energy with community energy. Renewable energy technologies transform the way electricity is generated, traded, delivered, and consumed, creating both opportunities and risks. Planning for renewable energy penetration into the utility grid as well as bidirectional power flow between generation and end-users requires system flexibility and diversity to bring about energy security. Changing demand patterns and distributing the production of renewable electricity offer equitable access to renewable electricity through cooperatives and community power, shifting geopolitics. These distributed networks, microgrids, and local production will help keep the power on to weather the increased storms and disasters of global warming while providing energy security.

This multidisciplinary literature review shows the complexity of the transition to renewable electricity, which needs careful planning and research to meet sustainable development goals and provide a green economy. More research is needed to analyze mechanisms for shifting fossil fuel subsidies and financing to renewables, renewable options for industrialization, and the many other drivers of this transition in light of climate change and ecological overshoot. A transition to a climate-neutral economy requires global financing and subsidies to fund renewable energy ecosystems with supportive policies and laws intent on building a green economy to halt and reverse the damage caused by fossil fuels [36,52,67,90].