Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios
- RCP 2.6 is a mitigation scenario (high effort to curb emissions; renewable energy generation; emission capture; bicycles, electric cars and public transport; average temperature increase of 1 °C; average rise of sea level of 0.4 m; small increase in extreme weather; low level of adaptation and low costs required);
- RCP4.5 is a stabilization scenario (medium effort to curb emissions; renewable energy generation; bicycles, petrol and electric cars and trucks for the transport sector; average temperature increase of 1.8 °C; average rise of sea level of 0.47 m; moderate increase in extreme weather; medium level of adaptation and medium costs required);
- RCP 6.0 is a stabilization scenario (medium effort to curb emissions, coal-fired and renewable energy generation; bicycles, petrol and electric cars and trucks for the transport sector, average temperature increase of 2.2 °C; average rise of sea level of 0.48 m; moderate increase in extreme weather; medium level of adaptation and medium costs required);
- RCP8.5 is a high emissions scenario (low effort to curb emissions; coal-fired energy generation; petrol cars and trucks for the transport sector; average temperature increase of 3.7 °C; average rise of sea level of 0.63 m; large increase in extreme weather; high level of adaptation and high costs required).
- These RCP scenarios were used in different energy fields. For example, Tettey et al. analysed the final and primary energy savings and overheating risk of the deep energy renovation of a Swedish multi-storey residential building in the 1970s under climate change [10]. Instead, the objective of other research was to propose a method to evaluate the impact of climate change inside religious historical spaces and its impact on thermal comfort, the preservation of artworks, and energy consumption [11].
1.2. How the Performance of Photovoltaic Systems Is Affected by Climate Change
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Climate Models
- The simple model based on radiant heat transfer considers the Earth as a single point with uniform energy output. This model can be expanded both vertically (radiative-convective models) and horizontally.
- Models that couple atmosphere–ocean–cryosphere circulation fully solve the equations for energy and mass transfer and heat transfer.
- Box models deal with flow across and within ocean basins.
- Other modelling uses interconnections such as land use to assess climate–ecosystem interactions.
GCM, RCM and Dynamic Downscaling Models
2.2. EURO-CORDEX Project
2.2.1. EURO-CORDEX Publications
2.2.2. Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)
2.3. Model CCLM 4-8-17EC Earth
2.3.1. Climate Variables
2.3.2. Climate Projections
2.3.3. CCLM 4-8-17—EC EARTH Model
3. Data Processing
3.1. Climate Data
3.2. Case Study
- Type 54a generates hourly meteorological data given the monthly average values of solar radiation, dry bulb temperature, and humidity ratio.
- Type 16g interpolates radiation data, calculates various quantities related to the Sun’s position, and estimates radiation on a range of surfaces of fixed or variable orientation.
- Type 94a models single or polycrystalline silicon PV panels to estimate their electrical performance.
- Type 25c is a subroutine for printing to output files from other types.
4. Results
4.1. Climate Data Projection
4.2. Photovoltaic Electricity Production Projection
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Nomenclature
A | Area of the PV module | m2 |
AR5 | Fifth Assessment Report | |
CMIP5 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 | |
Eel,m | Monthly electrical energy produced in one month | Wh |
Eel,y | Yearly electrical energy produced in one month | Wh |
GCM | Global climate model | |
Gy | Yearly solar radiation incident on the inclined plane | Wh/m2 |
Imp | Current at the point of maximum power | A |
IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change | |
Isc | Short circuit current at reference conditions | A |
NOCT | Nominal operating cell temperature | K |
PV | Photovoltaic | |
RCM | Regional Climate Model | |
RCP | Representative Concentration Pathway scenario | |
RF | Total radiative forcing (energy absorbed − energy emitted) | W/m2 |
RSDS | Surface downwelling shortwave radiation | W/m2 |
TAS | Near-surface air temperature (TAS) | |
Vmp | Voltage at the point of maximum power | V |
Voc | Open circuit voltage at reference conditions | V |
η | Yearly photovoltaic efficiency |
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Photovoltaic Parameter | Value | Photovoltaic Parameter | Value |
---|---|---|---|
Number of cells in the PV module | 72 | Nominal operating cell temperature NOCT (K) | 320.15 |
Open circuit voltage at reference conditions Voc (V) | 44.5 | Module area A (m2) | 1.62 |
Short circuit current at reference conditions Isc (A) | 7.45 | Temperature coefficient of the current under the reference conditions (%/°C) | 0.04 |
Voltage at the point of maximum power Vmp (V) | 35.9 | Temperature coefficient of the voltage under the reference conditions (%/°C) | −0.32 |
Current at the point of maximum power Imp (A) | 6.97 | Nominal power (W) | 250.22 |
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Matera, N.; Mazzeo, D.; Baglivo, C.; Congedo, P.M. Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy. Energies 2022, 15, 9546. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249546
Matera N, Mazzeo D, Baglivo C, Congedo PM. Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy. Energies. 2022; 15(24):9546. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249546
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatera, Nicoletta, Domenico Mazzeo, Cristina Baglivo, and Paolo Maria Congedo. 2022. "Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy" Energies 15, no. 24: 9546. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249546
APA StyleMatera, N., Mazzeo, D., Baglivo, C., & Congedo, P. M. (2022). Will Climate Change Affect Photovoltaic Performances? A Long-Term Analysis from 1971 to 2100 in Italy. Energies, 15(24), 9546. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15249546