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Article

Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition

1
Institute for Technology Assessment and Systems Analysis (ITAS), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 76133 Karlsruhe, Germany
2
Center for Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation Studies, University of Stuttgart, 70174 Stuttgart, Germany
3
German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute for Networked Energy Systems, 70569 Stuttgart, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Angelo Zarrella
Energies 2021, 14(6), 1580; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061580
Received: 29 December 2020 / Revised: 15 February 2021 / Accepted: 25 February 2021 / Published: 12 March 2021
Energy scenarios represent a prominent tool to support energy system transitions towards sustainability. In order to better fulfil this role, two elements are widely missing in previous work on designing, analyzing, and using scenarios: First, a more systematic integration of social and socio-technical characteristics of energy systems in scenario design, and, second, a method to apply an accordingly enhanced set of indicators in scenario assessment. In this article, an integrative scenario assessment methodology is introduced that combines these two requirements. It consists of: (i) A model-based scenario analysis using techno-economic and ecological indicators; (ii) a non-model-based analysis using socio-technical indicators; (iii) an assessment of scenario performances with respect to pre-determined indicator targets; (iv) a normalization method to make the two types of results (model-based and non-model-based) comparable; (v) an approach to classify results to facilitate structured interpretation. The combination of these elements represents the added-value of this methodology. It is illustrated for selected indicators, and exemplary results are presented. Methodological challenges and remaining questions, e.g., regarding the analysis of non-model-based indicators, resource requirements, or the robustness of the methodology are pointed out and discussed. We consider this integrative methodology being a substantial improvement of previous scenario assessment methodologies. View Full-Text
Keywords: sustainability assessment; socio-technical scenarios; energy system model; decision support; integrative assessment; cross-impact balance; semi-quantitative analysis; normalization method sustainability assessment; socio-technical scenarios; energy system model; decision support; integrative assessment; cross-impact balance; semi-quantitative analysis; normalization method
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kopfmüller, J.; Weimer-Jehle, W.; Naegler, T.; Buchgeister, J.; Bräutigam, K.-R.; Stelzer, V. Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies 2021, 14, 1580. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061580

AMA Style

Kopfmüller J, Weimer-Jehle W, Naegler T, Buchgeister J, Bräutigam K-R, Stelzer V. Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition. Energies. 2021; 14(6):1580. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061580

Chicago/Turabian Style

Kopfmüller, Jürgen, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Tobias Naegler, Jens Buchgeister, Klaus-Rainer Bräutigam, and Volker Stelzer. 2021. "Integrative Scenario Assessment as a Tool to Support Decisions in Energy Transition" Energies 14, no. 6: 1580. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14061580

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