Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany
2. Analytical Framework: Factors Influencing the Market Penetration of Fuel Cell Mobility
2.1. Overview of Framework
2.2. Description of Four Categories
2.2.1. Supply-Side Factors
|Influencing Factor||Explanation||Key Literature|
|1.1 Supply of vehicles||The volume of the current or expected production of fuel cell vehicles from various automakers and the availability of differing models and vehicle types.||[16,28,49,52,53,60,61]|
|1.2 Cost of production||The cost of producing fuel cell vehicles and associated components.||[9,23,24,49,50,52]|
|1.3 Technological state||The maturity, reliability and performance of core components in vehicles (e.g., fuel cell stacks and fuel tanks) and the ability to mass-produce these.||[9,23,28,49,55,56,62]|
|1.4 Environmental regulations||The presence of policies such as vehicle emissions limits or minimum ZEV production quotas that target automakers.||[3,51,57,58,61]|
|1.5 Government support||The presence of government schemes to support technology production in the automotive industry such as R&D funding or information sharing networks.||[9,24,63]|
|1.6 Maintenance and repair networks||The availability of human resources and service networks from automakers to maintain and repair vehicles.||[28,59,64]|
2.2.2. Infrastructure Factors
|Influencing Factor||Explanation||Key Literature|
|2.1 Availability of|
|The number and capacity of hydrogen refuelling stations relative to the population of on-road vehicles.||[16,18,53,54,65,67]|
|2.2 Cost of refuelling|
|The cost of constructing or operating refuelling stations.||[9,23,66]|
|2.3 Cost of hydrogen||The production and retail cost of hydrogen fuel for transport, as determined by production and delivery methods.||[24,66,68]|
|2.4 Profitability of|
|The ability to recover investments in refuelling stations for operators, as influenced by on-road vehicle numbers, government or industry support mechanisms, and construction or operation costs.||[24,64]|
|2.5 Economic support schemes||The availability of financial support schemes from government or industry to subsidise the cost of constructing or operating refuelling stations.||[53,61]|
|2.6 Reliability of|
|The reliability of hydrogen refuelling station equipment and the frequency of breakdowns and downtime.|||
|2.7Availability of low or zero-carbon hydrogen||The availability of low or zero-carbon hydrogen fuel at an affordable price.||[16,61,64]|
2.2.3. Demand-Side Factors
|Influencing Factor||Explanation||Key Literature|
|3.1 Consumer purchase incentives||The availability and attractiveness of monetary incentives (e.g., purchase subsidies, tax reductions) or non-monetary incentives (e.g., driving or parking privileges) to stimulate vehicle purchases.||[4,50,63,69,70]|
|3.2 Actual demand for vehicles||The degree to which market demand exists for fuel cell vehicles, with or without incentives.||[6,63,64,65]|
|3.3 Public awareness||The degree to which the general public is aware of hydrogen mobility and support its diffusion.||[6,53,63,73]|
2.2.4. Institutional Factors
3.1. Study Design
- Expert survey: This elicited the opinion of experts versed in Germany’s fuel cell mobility market about the principal factors driving or hampering the production and diffusion of passenger vehicles and buses. Drawing on scholarship both inside and outside the transportation field [63,80,81,82,83], this method helped to reduce the influence of the authors subjective judgement when identifying the most important drivers and barriers.
- Expert interviews: These were conducted with experts based in Germany and other European countries to obtain more detailed, qualitative information than that obtained through the expert survey.
- Document analysis: Secondary documents were consulted to build understanding into Germany’s fuel cell mobility market and source evidence for specific issues identified in expert surveys or interviews.
3.2. Expert Surveys
- Strong barrier
- Moderate barrier
- No influence
- Moderate driver
- Strong driver
3.4. Document Analysis
3.5. Data Analysis
4.1. Supply-Side Conditions
4.4. Cross-Cutting Institutional Issues
5. Conclusions and Implications
Conflicts of Interest
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|Influencing Factor||Explanation||Key Literature|
|4.1 Political support and policy signals||The degree to which government actors support hydrogen and fuel cell technology through policies, statements and commitments.||[16,24,61,63]|
|4.2 Standards and regulations||The degree to which standards (e.g., for refuelling protocols and storage pressures) and regulations (e.g., hydrogen safety laws) influence the cost, risk of redundancy and diffusion speed for hydrogen mobility and infrastructure.||[24,61,66,74]|
|4.3 Knowledge sharing networks||The availability and effectiveness of measures to stimulate the sharing of knowledge and experiences for all relevant stakeholders.||[9,39,43,61]|
|4.4 Partnerships and coalitions||The availability and effectiveness of coalitions or partnerships that mobilise different stakeholders for joint actions like business development, research, political lobbying etc.||[3,16,39,40,77,79]|
|Focus of Question|
|(i) Supply-side (production of vehicles)|
|(Optional) In your view, what are the most important differences regarding the barriers or drivers related to the production or supply of fuel cell passenger vehicles and buses in Germany?|
|(ii) Infrastructure (refuelling stations and hydrogen supply)|
|(Optional) In your view, what are the most important differences regarding the barriers or drivers related to infrastructure (e.g., refuelling stations and supply/cost of hydrogen etc.) for fuel cell passenger vehicles and buses in Germany?|
|(iii) Demand-side (vehicle adoption)|
|(Optional) In your view, what are the most important differences regarding the barriers or drivers related to public awareness of demand for fuel cell passenger vehicles or buses in Germany?|
|(iv) Cross-cutting institutional issues|
|(Optional) In your view, what are the most important differences regarding the barriers or drivers related to cross-cutting institutional factors for fuel cell passenger vehicles or buses in Germany?|
|Portion of Total|
|Industry: Automotive makers (passenger vehicles and bus)||BMW Group, Honda R&D Europe (Germany), Toyota||4||14%|
|Industry: Alliances||German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association (DWV)||2||7%|
|Industry: Consulting firms||adelphi, Clean Energy Future Consulting Bystry, Element Energy, Ludwig-Boelkow-Systemtechnik, Roland Berger, Spilett New Technologies||9||32%|
|Industry: Equipment manufacturers (fuel cells and engineering)||Ballard Europe, Wenger Engineering||2||7%|
|Industry: Fuel suppliers||Linde Hydrogen FuelTech, Shell Hydrogen||2||7%|
|Research institutions||Centre for Hydrogen Bavaria (H2.B), Center for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research (ZSW), The Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Center (ZBT)||7||25%|
|Government (including public-private)||EnergyAgency NRW, State Agency for New Mobility Solutions and Automotive (E-mobil BW)||2||7%|
|Organisation (German Abbreviation)||Country (City)||Date|
|Government agencies (public-private)|
|EnergyAgency NRW||Germany (Dusseldorf)||20 October 2020|
|H2 Mobility Deutschland||Germany (Berlin)||9 October 2020|
|German Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association (DWV)||Germany (Berlin)||19 November 2020|
|Industry: Automotive (bus and passenger vehicles)|
|Toyota Motor Europe||Belgium (Brussels)||28 April 2020|
|Caetano Bus||Portugal (Porto)||26 November 2020|
|Honda R&D Europe Germany||Germany (Offenbach)||30 November 2020|
|BMW Group||Germany (Munich)||2 December 2020|
|HySolutions||Germany (Hamburg)||14 October 2020|
|WSW mobil||Germany (Wuppertal)||19 October 2020|
|Ludwig Bölkow Systemtechnik (LBST)||Germany (Munich-Ottobrunn)||30 October 2020|
|Hydrogen Power Storage & Solutions (HYPOS) East Germany||Germany (Halle [Saale])||12 November 2020|
|Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) Germany||Germany (Berlin)||27 November 2020|
|EBISUblue||Germany (Kassel)||27 November 2020|
|Industry: Fuel suppliers|
|Linde||Germany (Pullach)||30 September 2020|
|Shell New Energies||Germany (Hamburg)||25 November 2020|
|Aachen University of Applied Sciences||Germany (Aachen)||1 October 2020|
|Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI||Germany (Karlsruhe)||30 October 2020|
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Trencher, G.; Edianto, A. Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany. Energies 2021, 14, 833. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040833
Trencher G, Edianto A. Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany. Energies. 2021; 14(4):833. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040833Chicago/Turabian Style
Trencher, Gregory, and Achmed Edianto. 2021. "Drivers and Barriers to the Adoption of Fuel Cell Passenger Vehicles and Buses in Germany" Energies 14, no. 4: 833. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14040833