Modeling Long-Term Electricity Generation Planning to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. First Scenario (No Carbon Dioxide Emission Constraints)
2.1.1. MESSAGE Input Data
- Fixed and variable operation and maintenance costs
2.1.2. SIMPACTS Input Data
2.2. Second Scenario (with Carbon Dioxide Emission Constraints)
2.2.1. MESSAGE Input Data
2.2.2. SIMPACT Input Data
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. First Scenario (No Carbon Dioxide Emission Constraints)
3.2. Second Scenario (with Carbon Dioxide Emission Constraints)
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Parameter | Input |
---|---|
Base Year | 2015 |
Modeling Period | 2015 to 2060 |
Discount Rate | 15% [23] |
Available Resources Used | Oil and Gas |
Energy Forms | Resources, Primary, Secondary, and Final |
Demand | Final Demand for Electricity |
Technology Name | Plant Capacity Factor | Plant Life (Years) | Investment Cost (USD/kW) [25] | Variable Cost (USD/MWh) [25] | Loss | Output Level in the Base Year (GWh) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Electricity distribution (Elect-TD) | N/A | 60 | 1000 | 10 | 20% | 25,941.97 |
Oil power plant (Oil-PP) | 0.3 | 35 | 1563 | 4.7 | 50% | 3764.277 |
Gas power plant (Gas-PP) | 0.3 | 40 | 1175 | 6.2 | 50% | 21,330.903 |
Solar power plant (Solar-PP) | 0.2 | 25 | 1313 | 0 | 0 | 24 |
Hydropower plant (Hydro) | 0.3 | 70 | 5316 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Wind power plant | 0.15 | 20 | 1265 | 10 | 0 | 5663 |
Nuclear power plant (Nuc-PP) | 0.9 | 60 | 4800 | 2.37 | 10% | N/A |
Domain Data | ||
Domain Name | Egbin Fossil Power Station | |
Time Frame | Full year | |
Cell Size | 50 × 50 km | |
Latitude | 6.5635° | |
Longitude | −3.6151° | |
Emission and Dispersion | ||
Base elevation | 10 m | |
Stack Height [30] | 40 m | |
Stack Diameter | 8.3 m | |
Exit Temperature [31] | 541.15 °C | |
Exit Velocity [31] | 40.96 m/s | |
SO2 emissions [32] | 33.588 kg/h | |
NOx emissions [32] | 2928.6 kg/h | |
PM10 emissions [32] | 65.772 kg/h | |
Month | Ozone (O3) Concentration | Ammonia (NH3) Concentration |
All year | 80 ppb (default) | 10 ppb (default) |
Health Impacts | ||
Lagos | Ogun | |
Population Density = 3345/km2 [33] | Population Density = 311.3/km2 [33] |
Site Location and Cost Data | ||
Economic defaults from | NIGERIA | |
GDP per Capita [34] | $2097 per capita | |
Hydro Power Plant Data | ||
Plant Capacity [35] | 578.4 MW | |
Capacity Factor [36] | 83% | |
Lifetime | 50 years | |
Dam Data | ||
Reservoir inundated area [37] | 350 km2 | |
Average Dam failure rate (default) | 0.0001 fraction | |
Average accident warning time (default) | 1.5 h | |
Population Data | ||
Population displaced | 28,875 persons | |
Share of population resettled/compensated | 60% | |
Population at risk in the event of accident | 47,200 persons | |
Value of statistical life | $128,839.11 | |
Land Use Data (type) | ||
Region type | Tropical | |
Type of Terrain | Flatlands | |
Agricultural Products [38] | ||
Maize Corn | 2800 tons/year | 8 $/ton |
Beans | 4200 tons/year | 12 $/ton |
Onions | 3500 tons/year | 10 $/ton |
Rice | 5600 tons/year | 16 $/ton |
Domain Data | ||
Domain Name | Nigeria Nuclear Modeling | |
Time Frame | Full year | |
Cell Size | 50 × 50 km | |
Latitude | 49.3° | |
Longitude | −1.9° | |
Emission and Dispersion | ||
Base elevation | 20 m | |
Stack Height [43] | 100 m | |
Stack Diameter | 3 m | |
Exit Temperature | 177 °C | |
Exit Velocity [44] | 15 m/s | |
Emission cycle | Constant | |
Emission rate unit [45] | GBq/year | |
3H emissions | 3080 GBq/year | |
14C emissions | 1050 GBq/year | |
131I emissions | 0.342 GBq/year | |
133I emissions | 0.640 GBq/year | |
60Co emissions | 0.102 GBq/year | |
85Kr emissions | 6720 GBq/year | |
134Cs emissions | 0.080 GBq/year | |
137Cs emissions | 0.071 GBq/year | |
133Xe emissions | 18,666.7 GBq/year | |
Population Density [33] | ||
Population Density = 1129/km2 | ||
Impact | Specific risk factors [cases per man Sv] | Specific economic values [$] |
Fatal cancer | 0.05 | 218.26 |
Nonfatal cancer | 0.12 | 237.6 |
Specific hereditary effect | 0.01 | 7143.91 |
Food production [38] | ||
Food | Export share [%] | Production [tons/year] |
Beef | 0 | 1454.1 |
Chicken | 0 | 256.2 |
Parameter | Item | Values | Damage Cost ($/MWh) |
---|---|---|---|
Loss of Land (km2) | Forest | 311.5 | 846.6 |
Farmland | 35 | ||
Other land | 3.5 | ||
Total | 350 | ||
Displacement and Resettlement (persons) | Displaced persons | 28,875 | 782.8 |
Resettled persons | 17,325 | ||
Emissions (tons/year) | CH4 (Mean) | 6300 | 1587 |
CO2 (Mean) | 629,300 | ||
GHG (in carbon equivalent) | 207,709 |
Year | Without CO2 Constraint (Scenario 1) | With CO2 Constraint (Scenario 2) | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gas-PP | Oil-PP | Nuc-PP | Solar-PP | Wind-PP | Hyd-pp | Gas-PP | Oil-PP | Nuc-PP | Solar-PP | Wind-PP | Hyd-pp | |
2016 | 0.00 | 81.11 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 17.46 | 0.00 | 81.11 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1.09 | 17.46 |
2020 | 0.00 | 84.77 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 14.08 | 0.00 | 91.12 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.88 | 7.73 |
2025 | 0.00 | 88.51 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.52 | 10.76 | 56.63 | 31.89 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.52 | 10.76 |
2030 | 0.00 | 91.40 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 8.23 | 79.83 | 0.00 | 10.96 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 8.84 |
2035 | 0.00 | 93.59 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 6.29 | 61.01 | 0.00 | 32.59 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 6.29 |
2040 | 0.00 | 95.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.80 | 46.62 | 0.00 | 48.57 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.80 |
2045 | 0.00 | 100.0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 35.63 | 0.00 | 60.70 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.67 |
2050 | 97.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.81 | 27.23 | 0.00 | 69.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.81 |
2055 | 97.86 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.14 | 20.81 | 0.00 | 77.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.14 |
2059 | 98.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.73 | 16.78 | 0.00 | 81.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.73 |
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Kim, J.; Abdel-Hameed, A.; Joseph, S.R.; Ramadhan, H.H.; Nandutu, M.; Hyun, J.-H. Modeling Long-Term Electricity Generation Planning to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria. Energies 2021, 14, 6258. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196258
Kim J, Abdel-Hameed A, Joseph SR, Ramadhan HH, Nandutu M, Hyun J-H. Modeling Long-Term Electricity Generation Planning to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria. Energies. 2021; 14(19):6258. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196258
Chicago/Turabian StyleKim, Juyoul, Ahmed Abdel-Hameed, Soja Reuben Joseph, Hilali Hussein Ramadhan, Mercy Nandutu, and Joung-Hyuk Hyun. 2021. "Modeling Long-Term Electricity Generation Planning to Reduce Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Nigeria" Energies 14, no. 19: 6258. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196258