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Projected Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends in Lithuania

Lithuanian Energy Institute, 44403 Kaunas, Lithuania
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Antonio Rosato and Eugen Rusu
Energies 2021, 14(17), 5425;
Received: 4 July 2021 / Revised: 17 August 2021 / Accepted: 26 August 2021 / Published: 31 August 2021
Developing wind energy in Lithuania is one of the most important ways to achieve green energy goals. Observational data show that the decline in wind speeds in the region may pose challenges for wind energy development. This study analyzed the long-term variation of the observed 2006–2020 and projected 2006–2100 near-surface wind speed at the height of 10 m over Lithuanian territory using data of three models included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). A slight decrease in wind speeds was found in the whole territory of Lithuania for the projected wind speed data of three global circulation models for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. It was found that the most favorable scenario for wind energy production is RCP2.6, and the most unfavorable is the RCP4.5 scenario under which the decrease in wind speed may reach 12%. At the Baltic Sea coastal region, the decline was smaller than in the country’s inner regions by the end of the century. The highest reduction in speed is characteristic of the most severe RCP8.5 scenario. Although the analysis of wind speeds projected by global circulation models (GCM) confirms the downward trends in wind speeds found in the observational data, the projected changes in wind speeds are too small to significantly impact the development of wind farms in Lithuania. View Full-Text
Keywords: wind speed; RCP scenarios; climate change; IPCC projections wind speed; RCP scenarios; climate change; IPCC projections
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MDPI and ACS Style

Jankevičienė, J.; Kanapickas, A. Projected Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends in Lithuania. Energies 2021, 14, 5425.

AMA Style

Jankevičienė J, Kanapickas A. Projected Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends in Lithuania. Energies. 2021; 14(17):5425.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jankevičienė, Justė, and Arvydas Kanapickas. 2021. "Projected Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends in Lithuania" Energies 14, no. 17: 5425.

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