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Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data

House of Energy Markets and Finance, University of Duisburg-Essen, 45141 Essen, Germany
Energies 2020, 13(6), 1443; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061443
Received: 20 February 2020 / Revised: 10 March 2020 / Accepted: 10 March 2020 / Published: 20 March 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Short-Term Load Forecasting 2019)
We introduce the problem of load nowcasting to the energy forecasting literature. The recent load of the objective area is predicted based on limited available metering data within this area. Thus, slightly different from load forecasting, we are predicting the recent past using limited available metering data from the supply side of the system. Next, to an industry benchmark model, we introduce multiple high-dimensional models for providing more accurate predictions. They evaluate metered interconnector and generation unit data of different types like wind and solar power, storages, and nuclear and fossil power plants. Additionally, we augment the model by seasonal and autoregressive components to improve the nowcasting performance. We consider multiple estimation techniques based on the lassoand ridge and study the impact of the choice of the training/calibration period. The methodology is applied to a European TSO dataset from 2014 to 2019. The overall results show that in comparison to the industry benchmark, an accuracy improvement in terms of MAE and RMSE of about 60% is achieved. The best model is based on the ridge estimator and uses a specific non-standard shrinkage target. Due to the linear model structure, we can easily interpret the model output. View Full-Text
Keywords: load forecasting; electricity consumption; lasso; Tikhonov regularization; load metering; preliminary load load forecasting; electricity consumption; lasso; Tikhonov regularization; load metering; preliminary load
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MDPI and ACS Style

Ziel, F. Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data. Energies 2020, 13, 1443. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061443

AMA Style

Ziel F. Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data. Energies. 2020; 13(6):1443. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061443

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ziel, Florian. 2020. "Load Nowcasting: Predicting Actuals with Limited Data" Energies 13, no. 6: 1443. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13061443

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