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Open AccessArticle

Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System

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Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Breslauer Strasse. 48, 76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
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Institute of Energy Economics and Rational Energy Use (IER), University of Stuttgart, Heßbrühlstrasse 49a, 70565 Stuttgart, Germany
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2020, 13(4), 773; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13040773
Received: 6 October 2019 / Revised: 23 January 2020 / Accepted: 7 February 2020 / Published: 11 February 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Model Coupling and Energy Systems)
Scenario analysis combined with system and market modelling is a well-established method to evaluate technological and societal developments and their impacts on future energy pathways. This paper presents a process-oriented method for developing consistent energy scenarios using multiple energy system models. Its added value is that the developed energy scenarios are consistent in a multi-model environment and practicable for a broader target group from scientists to practitioners. The scenarios consist of comprehensive storylines and systematically defined quantitative parameters. Following a step-by-step process, a condensed set of overlapping descriptors is generated and used to define the scenarios in a consistent parameter matrix. The set of descriptors allow consistent and comparable outputs independent of model-specific characteristics. The corresponding quantitative parameters can be used by diverse energy system tools. Using multiple models, a team of researchers can explore questions from differing points of view. In an example study, we apply the method to develop scenarios in the context of a cellular energy system. This approach enables the development of scenarios that provide a consistent basis for both stakeholder discourse and multi-model system analysis. View Full-Text
Keywords: scenario development; multi-model analysis; cellular energy systems; energy system modelling scenario development; multi-model analysis; cellular energy systems; energy system modelling
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MDPI and ACS Style

Kühnbach, M.; Guthoff, F.; Bekk, A.; Eltrop, L. Development of Scenarios for a Multi-Model System Analysis Based on the Example of a Cellular Energy System. Energies 2020, 13, 773.

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