Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level
3. Cities4ZERO Foresight in the Context of a Broader Strategy Process
3.1. Cities4ZERO Framework Generally
3.2. Cities4ZERO Foresight
4. Research Design and Data Collection
4.2. Cities4ZERO Foresight Implementation
4.3. Case Descriptions
5.1. Steering Group Set-up
“The process needs a strong and sharp workshop-leader with knowledge about the subjects and the process.”(steering group representative 1, City A)
“To speak in open cards the group admits that the whole task was quite frightening at the beginning, especially for the team members who were not used to such participative planning methods and working with scenario creation.”(steering group representative 2, City B)
“The process is complex, should count a strong and sharp workshop-leader, but more than that the local expert groups by different sector, with knowledge about the subjects and the process, and willed to guide the initiative.”(steering group representative 3, City C)
5.2. Setting up the Scene: Horizon Scanning
- Certain trends with a high impact that serves as useful background information about trends in urban planning; there were 24 trends identified, divided between energy, mobility, ICT and governance and societal engagement. As an example, likely and highly relevant trends included conclusions such as “Cities will become active players in their local energy markets” and “Contrary to developing countries, transport fuel demand in developed countries will drop”.
- Uncertain trends with a high impact can be considered as ‘wild cards’ in future scenario-building workshops; there were 11 “wild card” trends identified, divided between energy, mobility, ICT and governance and societal engagement.
5.3. Setting up the Scene: City Diagnosis
“We followed the methodology step by step and this was a very useful tool to steer the process. Such kind of involvement process (in such a volume) was quite extraordinary as besides ordinary partners for the City government a huge attempt was made to attract representatives from a wide range of organisations from different sectors. Therefore, this very thorough work done for preparing the steps was really helpful once the partners gathered together. This guaranteed a really smooth process during the workshops. Even collectively defining the vision was not as difficult as can be anticipated from the theory of foresight. The process was also clear to the participants.”(foresight participant 1, City B)
“The biggest challenge was to capture and keep the attention of all the participants during the duration of all the event”(foresight participant 2, City D).
5.4. Stakeholder Involvement
“The greatest benefit of such an exercise is probably building the community feeling, and showing that every opinion counts./---/Collective decision making can bring a lot of benefits especially at later stages of the planning process, but more importantly, in implementing the plan as target groups have generated this plan by themselves.”(foresight participant 3, City B)
“We have so far implemented the foresight process (methodology) twice. First time in 2007 and second time in 2018 at the beginning of our integrated energy plan creation process. In both cases the workshop and the foresight methodology have created a strong common platform for understanding and assessing the future uncertainties.”(foresight participant 4, City A)
“It helped in building trust among local stakeholders in municipality that their opinion matters and will be taken into account when developing and implementing local community development plans.”(foresight participant 5, City E)
“We have realised that some key target groups were still missing from the planning process. (meant industry, retailers, hospital)./---/Even though the whole key group jointly worked with the stakeholder identification, we now feel that even more time should have been dedicated to this phase./---/Therefore, indeed, even more thorough analysis at this stage would have avoided the situation where the group is doing this at the moment, when the plan is almost ready and working groups have delivered their results. Currently the group is working towards the greater involvement of “forerunners” (biggest energy consumers) to validate the action plan with them also.”(steering group representative 2, City B)
“/---/more representatives of schools and educational establishments should had been invited. Furthermore, the presence of some representatives of the neighbour Municipalities and regional institutions could have been constructive to create a collaborative work at a wider level.”(foresight participant 6, City D)
“A selection of stakeholders had been prepared, using a preliminary contact list owned by Municipality and considering the expertise and the needs to cover all the strategic areas of the integrated energy plan. Having had a preliminary list was very useful as a starting base and, even though this work was accurately conducted, more time could had been spent analysing the actors involved and what contributions they could bring to the discussion, considering also the possibility to contact and involve some stakeholders not part of a preliminary list.”(foresight participant 2, City D)
“Even though stakeholder involvement process was a major part of the efforts of the working group, it is assessed that more work is needed in the identification part, especially for evaluating the potential role of specific stakeholder groups for identification of concrete actions and their implementation in practice.”(foresight participant 5, City E)
5.5. Scenarios of the Future: Scenario Development Workshops
“We had one workshop and feel that although it was very beneficial, more efforts are needed and for this reason it is planned to have a second workshop, to use it as a fine-tuning tool before update and enrichment with energy and sustainability actions of the integrated planning document.”(foresight participant 5, City E)
“The decision to organize a single, more focused, workshop had the aim to speed up the process that faced some slowdowns at the beginning of the year, due to some political and governance problems. Even though the results obtained were satisfying, the possibility to organize two workshops could had been useful to create a more participative collaboration with the stakeholders involved, as there could had been more time to make them part of the process (e.g., discuss and select with their help the trends to be voted during a preliminary event).”(foresight participant 6, City D)
“The process is painful and need a strong and sharp workshop-leader with knowledge about the subjects and the process. Painful because you as an organizer, will not know where the (sometimes frustration) process will end and how the participants will respond to it during the process. Dividing the process into two separate workshops might help you overcome this challenge.”(foresight participant 4, City A)
“At the beginning the process could had seemed not easy to be explained and developed during a single event, but the more the foresight methodology was studied and deepened, also thanks to the frontrunners experiences, the clearer it became how to organize an effective workshop”.(foresight participant 2, City D)
“This (2 workshops) was seen as risky at first as people who we targeted were high level officials in the city, also politicians and entrepreneurs and it is difficult to keep them engaged for the whole day... In the end almost 70 different people participated in both workshops, a lot of them were attending both. This was even more positive result than anticipated at first/---/. In both workshops almost everybody stayed until the end of the workshop and had sparkle in their eyes. Probably, the greater challenge is to guarantee, that collective decisions really find their way to the action plan as further smaller working groups had not so many participants as was seen in the scenario planning workshops.”(foresight participant 1, City B)
5.6. Master Scenario and Shared Vision
“The scenario-creation process helped us and partners identify strengths and weaknesses looking towards 2029, create and integrate the four different scenarios into the Roadmap-process. During the process, the scenarios were used to communicate potential shared pictures of our future city (2029) and they were also used for testing the 50+ enabler projects generated during the IEP/Roadmap process.”(foresight participant 4, City A)
5.7. Strategies and Actions: Integration of Results Into Strategic Planning
“I would suggest other cities to integrate the foresight/scenario process in their IEP-process (meant integrated energy planning) and secure a broad participation of local and national stakeholders. Publish/communicate the outcome to all future participants as part of creating a common shared picture of the future.”(foresight participant 4, City A)
6. Discussion and Conclusions
Conflicts of Interest
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|Phase 1. SETTING UP THE SCENE|
|1. Set up the integrated energy planning steering group|
|Phase 2. SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE|
|8. Introduce the purpose|
|Phase 3. SHARED VISION|
|15. Develop a preferred vision|
|Phase 4. STRATEGIES AND ACTIONS|
|17. Organise a follow-up event|
|Socio-Economic and Institutional Context||Positioning Foresight into Energy Transition Planning Process|
|Tartu is the second-largest city in Estonia, with a population of 100,000 inhabitants and a total area of 38.86 km2. Tartu belongs into to continental climate/humid climate and temperature in the north of Europe and is a low population density district.|
Tartu is the home of several knowledge-intensive organisations and it is known for its extensive implementation of smart technologies in the urban environment. Tartu is putting a lot of emphasis on green transition, preparing a long-term sustainable energy action plan until 2030 and having green agenda strongly visible in the programme for 2024, when Tartu is acting as the European Capital of Culture.
|The foresight exercise was organised as part of a wider energy planning process that was called “Tartu Energy 2030+”. The Tartu Energy 2030+ strategy was developed in the framework of 3 different initiatives: compiling the interim report for the city’s already existing SEAP (sustainable energy action plan), renewing the SEAP into a SECAP (sustainable energy and climate action plan) and creating an IEP (integrated energy plan) according to Cities4ZERO methodology. The aim was to put Tartu in the context of global developments and devise an action plan for reducing CO2 emissions at least by 40% by the year 2030.|
|Sonderborg is the sixteenth largest municipality in Denmark, with approximately 77,000 inhabitants, located in the Southern Denmark region. Sonderborg has an oceanic climate in the north of Europe and is also a low population density district.|
The municipality holds an extensive agriculture sector, some of Denmark’s largest industrial companies (i.e., Danfoss), and some of the most beautiful natural resorts of the country, with a coast of approximately 200 km (offshore wind potential) and vast forests (local biomass potential). The city of Sonderborg has been working with the “ProjectZero” roadmap since 2007, aiming to become carbon neutral by 2029; one of the worldwide pioneer cities in this regard.
|The foresight for Sonderborg was a part of the creation of the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) for Sonderborg, named Roadmap2025. Roadmap2025 identified 52 specific energy/climate actions to be implemented to reach 75% CO2 emission reduction in Sonderborg by 2025 compared to the 2007 baseline. Both Roadmap2025 and the scenario process are focused on Sonderborg’s main future goal: to become CO2 neutral by 2029. Therefore, the scenario process was developed considering the goal of carbon neutrality by 2029 and became an integrated part of the Roadmap2025 process.|
|Vitoia-Gasteiz is the administrative capital of the Basque Country in northern Spain. It has a population of 240,000 inhabitants, with an area of 276.81 km2. Vitoria-Gasteiz is a compact, moderately dense city, which has an extensive background in the planning and implementation of environmental policies, being awarded the European Green Capital in 2012. |
Vitoria-Gasteiz has an oceanic climate in the south of Europe and high population density. Vitoria-Gasteiz is committed to becoming a carbon-neutral city by 2050.
|Foresight was as a part of their Integrated Energy Transition Action Plan 2030 (PATEI 2030 in Spanish), as a mid-way checkpoint towards their carbon neutrality strategy to be achieved in 2050. This document is continuing the SEAP of the city (Plan de Lucha contra el Cambio Climático 2010–2020), and the energy transition diagnosis released in November 2018. PATEI 2030 aims to cover the mitigation section of the future SECAP of Vitoria-Gasteiz, intended to be released in 2021.|
|Lecce is a historic city of 95,200 inhabitants in southern Italy, the capital of the Lecce province, the second largest province in the region by population, as well as one of the most important cities of Apulia. Lecce covers an area of approximately 238.39 km2. Lecce has a warm Mediterranean climate. It is also an important agricultural centre, chiefly for its olive oil and wine production, as well as an industrial centre specialising in ceramic production. |
The municipality has a great potential to exploit renewable energy (RES), with solar energy being the most relevant one. Lecce SEAP from 2007 targets renewable energy production, green spaces, energy savings in buildings through building refurbishment, street lighting refurbishment and smart mobility through electric public transportation improvement, cycle paths extension and promotion of natural gas vehicles.
|The foresight exercise was organised as a part of the Energy Planning Process, to provide input for the IEP. The main goal of Lecce is to implement the IEP, which defines the energy strategies of the City across different areas. The final output will be the IEP of Lecce Municipality, targeting a CO2 reduction of at least 40% by 2030, compared to 2007.|
|The Municipality of Asenovgrad occupies the southeast part of the Province of Plovdiv at the foot of Rhodope Mountains. Its territory is 615 km2 and the population is 68,000 inhabitants. Asenovgrad has a cool continental climate/subarctic climate and is a rural city. The town of Assenovgrad is the municipal centre. The main policy priorities of Asenovgrad Municipality are the development of the economy, human resources development and the development of infrastructure and environmental protection. As with the other four cities, Asenovgrad is also a signatory of the Covenant of Mayors and has developed and submitted a sustainable energy action plan with an overall CO2 emission reduction target of 28% by 2020. |
Asenovgrad has also been developing an Integrated Plan for Urban Regeneration and Development with three zones of intervention identified: social intervention zone, zone of public functions with high public importance and zone of high economic development potential.
|The foresight experience in Asenovgrad is based on the existing Integrated Plan for Urban Development and Regeneration (IPUDR) with the main aim to update and enrich it according to the results of scenario formulation process, with priority areas and concrete projects that help to reach the foreseen targets by the year 2027 and to formulate a long term vision of the municipality till 2050. As a result of the process, four main priority areas have been identified, namely biomass utilisation, wind and solar utilisation, building energy refurbishment and financing mechanisms, and concrete projects will be formulated to help deliver results and reach targets.|
|No of foresight workshops||2||1||2||1||1|
|Foresight process duration||Sept–Dec 2018||March–May 2018||Nov 2019–Feb 2020||Nov 2018–Sept 2019||May–September 2019|
|Steering group size||12 members from 4 different organisations||10 members from 4 different organisations||10 members from 5 different organisations||7 members from 2 different organisations||2 organisations involved|
|Most well represented stakeholder categories||Environment, mobility, government, economy, people, living, City council||Homeowners, housing companies, private rental homes, private transportation, companies, farmers, heavy transport, energy||Energy generation and removable, mobility, urban planning and residential sector, and governance, strong participation of city council||Energy, urban lighting, mobility, ICT and new technologies, natural resources, waste management, government, people||Local Industry, Asenovgrad and Kuklen Municipalities|
|Less represented stakeholders||Main biggest energy consumers from the private sector; university||City council||Citizens and local communities||Schools and educational establishments; neighbouring municipalities||Citizen representation organisations|
|Diagnosis (used methods)||Using SmartEnCity global trend survey results as an input; review of existing local strategic plans, creation of SWOT in each main energy domain||A review of the outcome of a similar process conducted in 2007; preparing inspirational talks for the workshop; preparing trend list for the workshop||New global smart city trend analysis based on literature review; SWOT in each main energy domain||SWOT in each main energy domain; new online survey about future trends among local stakeholders||SWOT in each main energy domain|
|No. of stakeholders involved||90 (combined 2 workshops)||40||40||40||10|
|External moderator used||Yes||Yes||Yes||No||No|
|Master scenario developed||Yes||No||Yes||Yes||No|
|Joint city vision defined within scenario development workshop||Yes||No||Yes||No||No|
|Process specifics||Scenarios could be edited by stakeholders in between workshops||SWOT developed during the workshop and for each scenario||SWOT and trends based, scenarios created and edited by stakeholders||Scenario axes defined before the workshop through an online survey about trends||Four main priority areas have been identified for the existing IUPRD|
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Tatar, M.; Kalvet, T.; Tiits, M. Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level. Energies 2020, 13, 3533. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143533
Tatar M, Kalvet T, Tiits M. Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level. Energies. 2020; 13(14):3533. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143533Chicago/Turabian Style
Tatar, Merit, Tarmo Kalvet, and Marek Tiits. 2020. "Cities4ZERO Approach to Foresight for Fostering Smart Energy Transition on Municipal Level" Energies 13, no. 14: 3533. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143533