Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- The formulation of the current energy paradigm and related questions.
- Analysis of existing energy system models used for assessing and decision making in energy system development, specifically focusing on what models are able to answer which questions.
- Support in choosing the most relevant model for investigating and understanding a particular issue.
- Identifying gaps between the capabilities of existing energy models and requirements of the current energy paradigm facilitates improvement of existing energy system models.
- Point one and two, individually or combined, can facilitate better application of models for decision-making related to the development of energy systems.
2. Method
3. The Current Energy Paradigm and Arising Questions
4. Model Analysis
4.1. Bottom-Up Models
4.2. Top-Down Models
4.3. Hybrid Models
4.4. Energy in Other Assessment Models
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Acronyms and Abbreviations
C-Roads | Climate Simulation Model |
CO2 | Carbon dioxide |
DDPP | Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project |
DICE | Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy |
EEA | European Environment Agency |
En-Roads | Energy Simulation Model |
EROI | Energy Return on Investment |
EU ETS | European Union Emission Trading System |
EU | European Union |
Eurostat | European Statistics |
FELIX | Functional Enviro-economic Linkages Integrated neXus |
GAMS | General Algebraic Modelling System |
GDP | Gross Domestic Product |
GEM-E3 | General Equilibrium Modelling for Energy-Economy-Environment |
GEMBA | Global Energy Modelling—a Biophysical Approach |
GHG | Greenhouse Gas |
GINI | Measure of statistical dispersion to represent income/wealth distribution |
IAEA | International Atomic Energy Agency |
IAM | Integrated Assessment Model |
IEA | International Energy Agency |
IMAGE | Integrated Model to Access Global Environment |
IPCC | International Panel on Climate Change |
LEAP | Long range Energy Alternatives Planning system |
MAgPIE | Model of Agriculture Production and its Impact on the Environment |
MARKAL | Market Allocation |
MDGs | Millennium Development Goals |
MESSAGE | Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental impact |
MESSAGE-Access | MESSAGE Energy Access Model |
MESSAGE-MACRO | MESSAGE Macroeconomic Model |
MESSAGE-MAGICC | Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change |
NEMS | National Energy Modelling System |
OPEC | Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries |
OSeMOSYS | The Open Source Energy Modelling System |
PRIMES | A computable price-driven equilibrium model of the energy system and markets for Europe |
REMIND | Regional Model for Investment and Development |
SDGs | Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) |
SE4All | Sustainable Energy for All |
SSPs | Shared Socio-Economic Pathways Scenarios |
TIMES | Integrated MARKAL-EFOM system |
UN | United Nations |
UNDESA | United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs |
UNFCCC | United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |
WEC | World Energy Council |
WEM | World Energy Model |
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Year | Sustainable Development | Concepts | Energy |
---|---|---|---|
1970s | Limits to Growth and WORLD3 model Conference of the Human Environment in Stockholm, Sweden | Limits of fossils and their implications Environmental impact Energy security | Oil crisis Hubbert curve Establishment of IEA Establishment of OPEC Energy Modelling Forum establishment |
1980s | Brundtland report Creation of IPCC | Sustainable development | World Energy Council establishment Concept of the cost of conserved energy and energy supply curves |
1990s | United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio, Brazil Signing of UNFCCC Agenda 21 1st IPCC report | Climate change | Merge of energy and climate research Energy researchers contribution to Special report on Emission Scenarios Global Energy Perspectives book |
2000s | MDGs 9th Session report of UN Commission of Sustainable Development World Summit on Sustainable Development Kyoto protocol Creation of EU ETS | Energy is central for sustainable development Link between energy and socio-economic development (incl. energy relation to poverty, urbanization, population dynamics) Cross-scale energy systems impacts (national/regional impact on global and vice versa) | IAEA, IEA, UNDESA, Eurostat and EEA indicator set World Energy Assessment - Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability by UNDP 1st EU energy action plan (20/20/20 targets) |
2010s | SDGs Paris Agreement | Short-term versus long-term goals Synergies and trade-offs between different development goals Limits of renewables and their implications Impact of climate change on energy system | Launch of Sustainable Energy for All SDG 7 Critical material resource debate Climate change mitigation strategies Climate change adaptation strategies Climate and energy justice debate Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project |
Number | Question | Explanation |
---|---|---|
1 | How does the energy system affect climate change? | This question refers to the effect the energy system, from production (including resource harvesting) to consumption, has on the climate. Hence, the model should provide greenhouse gas (GHG) emission values as well as their implications in terms of climate change effects (e.g., degree Celsius increases). |
2 | What other negative environmental impacts of the energy system exist? | This question refers to the pollutants that are not directly influencing the climate but have more local effects on the environment (e.g., water, land, air), for example, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides. |
3 | How does climate change affect the energy system? | This question refers to the potential feedbacks arising from climate change on the availability of renewable resources due to changed weather conditions (e.g., solar radiation, changed precipitation for hydropower). |
4 | What are the limits of fossil resource supplies and what are their implications? | This question refers to the scarcity and depletion of fossil fuels and how this influences the energy system in terms of availability and cost. |
5 | What are the limits of renewable resources and what are their implications? | This question refers to temporal availability of renewables and to scarcity of materials needed for harvesting technology and how this influences future renewable energy systems in terms of availability and cost. |
6 | How can a secure energy system be provided? | This question refers to the short- and long-term supply. Hence, it is addressing the availability of resources to meet the energy demand, considering the intermittencies for the short-term and potential resource scarcities in the long-term. |
7 | How does the energy system affect socio-economic development beyond GDP? | This question refers to the effects that the energy system has on human development, including its influence on health, affordability and poverty eradication. |
8 | How will near future energy system developments shape the long-term future energy system and how do long-term future goals impact on short-term developments? | This question refers to the fact that achieving certain goals in the near future can have impacts in the long-term and vice versa due to created path-dependencies and lock-ins. |
9 | What are the synergies and trade-offs between different energy system development goals? | This question refers to the fact that the energy system is interlinked with the social, environmental and economic system. Different goals with regards to each of the systems exist. Hence, it is important to understand how those goals relate to each other and whether they are conflicting or complimentary. |
10 | How does the development of the energy system of one country/region affect global development? | This refers to understanding whether the energy system development of a country/region can influence another country’s/region’s development (e.g., distribution of scarce resources, climate effects). |
11 | How do global developments affect the development of the energy system of a country/region? | This question refers to the influence globally negotiated goals (e.g., climate, energy, poverty eradication) might have on a country’s/region’s energy system development. |
Model Type | Strengths | Weaknesses |
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Bottom-up |
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Top-down |
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Hybrid models |
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Other assessment models |
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IAMs |
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Spittler, N.; Gladkykh, G.; Diemer, A.; Davidsdottir, B. Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development. Energies 2019, 12, 1584. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12081584
Spittler N, Gladkykh G, Diemer A, Davidsdottir B. Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development. Energies. 2019; 12(8):1584. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12081584
Chicago/Turabian StyleSpittler, Nathalie, Ganna Gladkykh, Arnaud Diemer, and Brynhildur Davidsdottir. 2019. "Understanding the Current Energy Paradigm and Energy System Models for More Sustainable Energy System Development" Energies 12, no. 8: 1584. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12081584