Next Article in Journal
Control Method of Parallel Inverters with Self-Synchronizing Characteristics in Distributed Microgrid
Previous Article in Journal
Merit Order Effect Modeling: The Case of the Hellenic Electricity Market
Previous Article in Special Issue
Transitioning Island Energy Systems—Local Conditions, Development Phases, and Renewable Energy Integration
Open AccessArticle

Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World

School of Energy Systems, LUT University, Yliopistonkatu 34, 53850 Lappeenranta, Finland
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2019, 12(20), 3870; https://doi.org/10.3390/en12203870
Received: 1 September 2019 / Revised: 9 October 2019 / Accepted: 10 October 2019 / Published: 12 October 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue 100% Renewable Energy Transition: Pathways and Implementation)
The pivotal target of the Paris Agreement is to keep temperature rise well below 2 °C above the pre-industrial level and pursue efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5 °C. To meet this target, all energy-consuming sectors, including the transport sector, need to be restructured. The transport sector accounted for 19% of the global final energy demand in 2015, of which the vast majority was supplied by fossil fuels (around 31,080 TWh). Fossil-fuel consumption leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which accounted for about 8260 MtCO2eq from the transport sector in 2015. This paper examines the transportation demand that can be expected and how alternative transportation technologies along with new sustainable energy sources can impact the energy demand and emissions trend in the transport sector until 2050. Battery-electric vehicles and fuel-cell electric vehicles are the two most promising technologies for the future on roads. Electric ships and airplanes for shorter distances and hydrogen-based synthetic fuels for longer distances may appear around 2030 onwards to reduce the emissions from the marine and aviation transport modes. The rail mode will remain the least energy-demanding, compared to other transport modes. An ambitious scenario for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is applied, also demonstrating the very high relevance of direct and indirect electrification of the transport sector. Fossil-fuel demand can be reduced to zero by 2050; however, the electricity demand is projected to rise from 125 TWhel in 2015 to about 51,610 TWhel in 2050, substantially driven by indirect electricity demand for the production of synthetic fuels. While the transportation demand roughly triples from 2015 to 2050, substantial efficiency gains enable an almost stable final energy demand for the transport sector, as a consequence of broad electrification. The overall well-to-wheel efficiency in the transport sector increases from 26% in 2015 to 39% in 2050, resulting in a respective reduction of overall losses from primary energy to mechanical energy in vehicles. Power-to-fuels needed mainly for marine and aviation transport is not a significant burden for overall transport sector efficiency. The primary energy base of the transport sector switches in the next decades from fossil resources to renewable electricity, driven by higher efficiency and sustainability. View Full-Text
Keywords: transport sector; transportation demand; final energy demand; road; rail; marine; aviation; levelized cost of mobility; greenhouse gas emissions; electrification. transport sector; transportation demand; final energy demand; road; rail; marine; aviation; levelized cost of mobility; greenhouse gas emissions; electrification.
Show Figures

Graphical abstract

MDPI and ACS Style

Khalili, S.; Rantanen, E.; Bogdanov, D.; Breyer, C. Global Transportation Demand Development with Impacts on the Energy Demand and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Climate-Constrained World. Energies 2019, 12, 3870.

Show more citation formats Show less citations formats
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop