Do Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Decouple in China? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods and Data
2.1. Carbon Emissions Calculation
2.2. Decoupling Theory
2.3. EKC Framework
3. Estimation Method and Data
3.1. Model Relationship Derivation
3.2. Data Sources and Descriptions
4. Empirical Results and Discussions
4.1. Environmental Kuznets Curve in China
4.2. Decoupling Status of 29 Provinces in China
5. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations
5.1. Conclusions
5.2. Policy Recommendations
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Classification | Status | Carbon Emissions Change | GDP Change | Elastic Coefficient |
---|---|---|---|---|
Decoupling | Weak decoupling | >0 | >0 | 0 ≤ e < 0.8 |
Strong decoupling | <0 | >0 | e < 0 | |
Recessive decoupling | <0 | <0 | e > 1.2 | |
Negative decoupling | Expansive negative decoupling | >0 | >0 | e > 1.2 |
Strong negative decoupling | >0 | <0 | e < 0 | |
Weak negative decoupling | <0 | <0 | 0 ≤ e < 0.8 | |
Coupling | Expansive coupling | >0 | >0 | 0.8 ≤ e < 1.2 |
Recessive coupling | <0 | <0 | 0.8 ≤ e < 1.2 |
Variable Name | Unit | Mean | Maximum | Minimum Value | Standard Deviation | Observation Value |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total per capita CO2 emissions | Kilogram/person | 8222.72 | 26,287.15 | 2588.47 | 4565.15 | 290 |
Real per capita GDP | Yuan/person | 28,644.14 | 92,400 | 5800 | 16,533.48 | 290 |
Actual use of foreign capital | Yuan/person | 227.63 | 2415.01 | 0 | 408.84 | 290 |
Urbanization rate | % | 53.52 | 89.60 | 28.24 | 13.68 | 290 |
The added value of the secondary industry Accounts for the proportion of GDP | % | 47.06 | 61.50 | 19.26 | 8.19 | 290 |
Proportion of thermal power generation | % | 0.78 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 290 |
R&D intensity (R&D) | — | 1.45 | 6.01 | 0.21 | 1.08 | 290 |
Carbon emission decoupling coefficient | — | 0.55 | 4.35 | −2.78 | 0.84 | 290 |
Benchmark Regression | Robustness Test | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable | Quadratic Model | Cubic Model | Quadratic Model | Cubic Model | ||||
(1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
L.lnC | 0.716 *** (0.027) | 0.714 *** (0.036) | 0.815 *** (0.023) | 0.673 *** (0.028) | 0.747 *** (0.029) | 1.074 *** (0.077) | 0.662 *** (0.038) | 0.765 *** (0.029) |
lngdp | 0.207 *** (0.062) | −0.101 *** (0.039) | 0.096 *** (0.031) | 0.102 ** (0.040) | 0.187 *** (0.056) | −1.011 *** (0.318) | −0.229 ** (0.094) | −0.073 * (0.045) |
lngdp2 | −0.043 *** (0.016) | 0.215 *** (0.039) | −0.024 *** (0.009) | −0.023 * (0.015) | −0.041*** (0.014) | 0.882 *** (0.289) | 0.339 *** (0.084) | 0.078 *** (0.034) |
lngdp3 | — | −0.060 *** (0.012) | — | — | — | −0.246 *** (0.076) | −0.087 *** (0.021) | −0.016 *** (0.009) |
lnfdi | 0.022 *** (0.003) | 0.016 *** (0.003) | — | 0.030 *** (0.004) | 0.019 *** (0.004) | — | 0.022 *** (0.004) | 0.015 *** (0.003) |
urban | −0.006 *** (0.002) | −0.003 *** (0.001) | — | 0.005 *** (0.005) | −0.006 *** (0.002) | — | — | 0.000 *** (0.001) |
sec | 0.001 (0.001) | 0.006*** (0.001) | — | — | 0.002 (0.001) | — | 0.008 *** (0.001) | 0.006 *** (0.001) |
hermal | 0.459 *** (0.089) | 0.232 *** (0.053) | — | — | 0.462 *** (0.092) | — | — | 0.165 *** (0.046) |
lntec | −0.112 *** (0.027) | −0.123 *** (0.016) | −0.061 *** (0.020) | −0.255 *** (0.045) | −0.092 *** (0.024) | — | −0.214 *** (0.039) | −0.112 *** (0.013) |
_cons | 2.275 *** (0.201) | 2.212 *** (0.284) | 1.637 *** (0.183) | 2.570 *** (0.206) | 2.001 *** (0.221) | −0.28 9(0.649) | 2.598 *** (0.300) | 1.693 *** (0.222) |
AR(1) | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.002 | 0.013 | 0.003 | 0.002 |
AR(2) | 0.755 | 0.594 | 0.644 | 0.929 | 0.720 | 0.937 | 0.950 | 0.731 |
Hansen | 0.586 | 0.723 | 0.586 | 0.592 | 0.540 | 0.063 | 0.768 | 0.695 |
Curve shape | Invert U | Invert N | Invert U | Invert U | Invert U | Invert N | Invert N | Invert N |
Turning point | 111,178 | 86,476 | 76,990 | 88,891 | 98,581 | 41,719 | 88,822 | 148,476 |
Province/Year | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beijing | WD | SD | WD | WD | SD | WD | SD | SD | WD | SD |
Tianjin | WD | WD | END | WD | EC | WD | WD | SD | SD | SD |
Hebei | WD | END | EC | END | WD | WD | END | SD | WD | WD |
Shanxi | WD | END | EC | WD | WD | WD | END | SD | SD | WD |
Neimenggu | WD | END | EC | WD | END | SD | SD | WD | WD | WD |
Liaoning | WD | END | END | WD | SD | WD | END | WD | SD | RC |
Jilin | WD | WD | WD | WD | END | SD | WD | WD | SD | SD |
Heilongjiang | WD | END | WD | EC | EC | WD | SD | WD | WD | WD |
Shanghai | WD | WD | EC | EC | SD | END | SD | SD | SD | SD |
Jiangsu | WD | EC | EC | END | SD | WD | END | WD | WD | WD |
Zhejiang | EC | WD | WD | WD | WD | SD | EC | WD | SD | SD |
Anhui | WD | WD | EC | EC | WD | EC | END | WD | WD | WD |
Fujian | WD | END | END | WD | END | WD | WD | WD | SD | SD |
Jiangxi | EC | END | END | SD | WD | WD | END | WD | WD | WD |
Shandong | WD | WD | WD | EC | WD | WD | SD | WD | WD | WD |
Henan | WD | WD | EC | EC | WD | WD | WD | WD | SD | SD |
Hubei | WD | WD | WD | END | EC | WD | SD | WD | SD | WD |
Hunan | WD | WD | EC | EC | EC | SD | SD | WD | SD | EC |
Guangdong | WD | WD | EC | EC | EC | WD | SD | SD | WD | WD |
Guangxi | EC | END | END | END | EC | WD | WD | WD | SD | WD |
Hainan | WD | EC | EC | END | END | SD | WD | WD | WD | SD |
Sichuan | SD | END | EC | END | EC | WD | SD | WD | SD | SD |
Guizhou | WD | SD | EC | WD | WD | EC | WD | WD | SD | WD |
Yunnan | WD | WD | END | WD | WD | WD | SD | SD | SD | WD |
Shaanxi | WD | EC | EC | END | WD | EC | WD | WD | SD | SD |
Gansu | EC | END | SD | END | WD | END | WD | WD | SD | SD |
Qinghai | WD | END | EC | SD | EC | END | EC | WD | WD | EC |
Ningxia | WD | END | WD | END | END | SD | WD | WD | WD | SD |
Xinjiang | EC | EC | END | EC | END | END | END | EC | WD | EC |
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Hao, Y.; Huang, Z.; Wu, H. Do Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Decouple in China? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data. Energies 2019, 12, 2411. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12122411
Hao Y, Huang Z, Wu H. Do Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Decouple in China? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data. Energies. 2019; 12(12):2411. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12122411
Chicago/Turabian StyleHao, Yu, Zirui Huang, and Haitao Wu. 2019. "Do Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth Decouple in China? An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data" Energies 12, no. 12: 2411. https://doi.org/10.3390/en12122411