Based on 15-min high-frequency power load data from a Chinese hospital, by adopting recurrence interval analysis, an attempt is made to provide a new perspective for improving hospital energy administration in electrical efficiency and safety. Initially, the definition of extreme fluctuation of the power load, as well as the recurrence interval, is given. Next, the stretched exponential distribution function is provided, which fits quite well with the probability density distribution of recurrence intervals. Then, tests on recurrence intervals, including scaling behavior and short-term and long-term memory effect are conducted. At last, a risk estimation method of VaR is proposed for hospital energy administrator to forecast risk probability. Results clearly indicate that the recurrence interval analysis (RIA) method works well on forecasting extreme power load fluctuation in hospital. However, there is no evidence to support the existence of the long-term memory effect of recurrence intervals, which means that hospital energy management plans have to be continuously fixed and updated with time. Some relevant applicant suggestions are provided for the energy administrator at the end of this paper.
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License
which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited