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Energies 2018, 11(3), 620; https://doi.org/10.3390/en11030620

A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation

1
Ecole Nationale d’Ingénieurs de Tunis, Université de Tunis El Manar, Tunis 1002, Tunisia
2
Faculty of Engineering, Gipuzkoa, University of the Basque Country, 20018 San Sebastián, Spain
3
ESTIA Recherche, 64210 Bidart, France
4
Institut Supérieur d’Informatique, Université de Tunis El Manar, Ariana 2080, Tunisia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Received: 9 February 2018 / Revised: 3 March 2018 / Accepted: 8 March 2018 / Published: 10 March 2018
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Abstract

The solar photovoltaic (PV) energy has an important place among the renewable energy sources. Therefore, several researchers have been interested by its modelling and its prediction, in order to improve the management of the electrical systems which include PV arrays. Among the existing techniques, artificial neural networks have proved their performance in the prediction of the solar radiation. However, the existing neural network models don’t satisfy the requirements of certain specific situations such as the one analyzed in this paper. The aim of this research work is to supply, with electricity, a race sailboat using exclusively renewable sources. The developed solution predicts the direct solar radiation on a horizontal surface. For that, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) neural network is used. All the specific conditions of the sailboat operation are taken into account. The results show that the best prediction performance is obtained when the training phase of the neural network is performed periodically. View Full-Text
Keywords: prediction; solar radiation; clear sky model; cloud cover; Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) prediction; solar radiation; clear sky model; cloud cover; Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX)
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. (CC BY 4.0).
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Boussaada, Z.; Curea, O.; Remaci, A.; Camblong, H.; Mrabet Bellaaj, N. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous (NARX) Neural Network Model for the Prediction of the Daily Direct Solar Radiation. Energies 2018, 11, 620.

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