Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Weather and Wind Power Ramps
3. Data and Methodology
3.1. Atmospheric and Wind Power Data
3.2. Cyclone and Windstorm Detection Algorithms
3.2.1. Cyclone Detection Algorithm—1st Methodology
3.2.2. Windstorm Detection Algorithm—2nd Methodology
3.3. Ramp Definition
3.4. Evaluation of Windstorm and Cyclone Detection Methodologies
3.5. Composite Analysis
3.6. Clustering Methodology for Trajectories Analysis
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Storm Detection
4.2. Composite Analysis
4.3. Evaluation of Proposed Methodologies
4.4. Trajectories Analysis
5. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Class | Type | MSLP Laplacian () |
---|---|---|
00 | Strong closed | |
01 | Strong opened | |
10 | Weak closed | |
11 | Weak opened |
Event Foreseen | Event Observation | Total | |
---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | ||
Yes | TP (hits) | FP (false alarms) | Foreseen Yes |
No | FN (misses) | TN (true negatives) | Foreseen No |
Total | Observed Yes | Observed No | N = TP + FP + FN + TN |
Class | TC | Frequency of Occurrence (%) |
---|---|---|
00 | 36 | 9.89 |
01 | 73 | 20.05 |
10 | 50 | 13.74 |
11 | 205 | 56.32 |
Event Foreseen | Event Observation | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | |||||||||||
Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | |
Yes | 59 | 60 | 56 | 46 | 305 | 91 | 308 | 105 | 364 | 151 | 364 | 151 |
No | 22 | 21 | 22 | 32 | 9822 | 10,036 | 9822 | 10,025 | 9844 | 10,057 | 9844 | 10,057 |
Total | 81 | 81 | 78 | 78 | 10,127 | 10,127 | 10,130 | 10,130 | 10,208 | 10,208 | 10,208 | 10,208 |
Event Foreseen | Event Observation | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | |||||||||||
Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | |
Yes | 60 | 55 | 44 | 39 | 304 | 96 | 320 | 112 | 364 | 151 | 364 | 151 |
No | 19 | 24 | 28 | 33 | 9825 | 10,033 | 9816 | 10,024 | 9844 | 10,057 | 9844 | 10,057 |
Total | 79 | 79 | 72 | 72 | 10,129 | 10,129 | 10,136 | 10,136 | 10,208 | 10,208 | 10,208 | 10,208 |
Event Foreseen | Event Observation | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | |||||||||||
Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | |
Yes | 12 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 372 | 75 | 368 | 75 | 384 | 91 | 384 | 91 |
No | 7 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 9857 | 10,154 | 9858 | 10,151 | 9864 | 10,157 | 9864 | 10,157 |
Total | 19 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 10,229 | 10,229 | 10,226 | 10,226 | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 |
Event Foreseen | Event Observation | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | No | |||||||||||
Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | Type-1 Met.1 | Type-1 Met.2 | Type-2 Met.1 | Type-2 Met.2 | |
Yes | 17 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 367 | 72 | 363 | 75 | 384 | 91 | 384 | 91 |
No | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 9860 | 10,155 | 9857 | 10,145 | 9864 | 10,157 | 9864 | 10,157 |
Total | 21 | 21 | 28 | 28 | 10,227 | 10,227 | 10,220 | 10,323 | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 | 10,248 |
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Lacerda, M.; Couto, A.; Estanqueiro, A. Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones. Energies 2017, 10, 1475. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10101475
Lacerda M, Couto A, Estanqueiro A. Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones. Energies. 2017; 10(10):1475. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10101475
Chicago/Turabian StyleLacerda, Madalena, António Couto, and Ana Estanqueiro. 2017. "Wind Power Ramps Driven by Windstorms and Cyclones" Energies 10, no. 10: 1475. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10101475