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Volume 14
Issue 9
10.3390/d14090697
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Review

The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis

by
Lara van Niekerk
1,2,*,
Stephen J. Lamberth
2,3,
Nicola C. James
2,4,
Susan Taljaard
1,2,
Janine B. Adams
2,
Andre K. Theron
5 and
Marjolaine Krug
6,7
1
Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa
2
Institute for Coastal and Marine Research, Botany Department, Nelson Mandela University, Gqeberha 6070, South Africa
3
Branch: Fisheries, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Cape Town 8002, South Africa
4
South African Institute for Aquatic Biodiversity, Makanda 6140, South Africa
5
Department Civil Engineering, University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch 7600, South Africa
6
Branch: Oceans and Coast, Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Cape Town 8002, South Africa
7
Department of Oceanography, Nansen-Tutu Centre for Marine Environmental Research, University of Cape Town, Cape Town 7701, South Africa
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Diversity 2022, 14(9), 697; https://doi.org/10.3390/d14090697
Submission received: 31 July 2022 / Revised: 18 August 2022 / Accepted: 18 August 2022 / Published: 23 August 2022
(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change on Estuarine and Coastal Systems)
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Abstract

This review evaluates the vulnerability of South African estuaries to Climate Change in a data-limited environment. The regional-scale assessment is based on physical characteristics and predicted/measured changes in the abiotic drivers and ecosystem responses. The major Climate Change stressors were identified in order of importance as change in climatic and hydrological processes, ocean circulation and temperature regimes, sea level rise, increase in frequency and intensity of sea storms, and ocean acidification. Flow-related ecosystem responses included changes in mouth state, salinity regimes, biochemical regimes (nutrient fluxes), and floods and related sediment deposition/erosion cycles. The regional vulnerability assessment provides a summary of the key shifts scaled as high, medium, and low in estuary state. Changes in oceanic processes and temperature regimes drive shifts in nearshore temperatures of the transitional zones, with related ecological responses (e.g., range expansion). However, most structural and functional changes are expected along cool temperate and subtropical biogeographical regions, leading to notable shifts in mouth closures and salinity regimes, which in turn will affect estuary function and estuary-associated species. Monitoring and management of resources (e.g., fresh water and fisheries allocations) need to consider this in long-term planning.
Keywords: regional assessment; change in rainfall; ocean circulation; temperature regimes; sea storms; sea level rise; ocean acidification; physical dynamics; biogeochemistry; biological responses regional assessment; change in rainfall; ocean circulation; temperature regimes; sea storms; sea level rise; ocean acidification; physical dynamics; biogeochemistry; biological responses
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MDPI and ACS Style

van Niekerk, L.; Lamberth, S.J.; James, N.C.; Taljaard, S.; Adams, J.B.; Theron, A.K.; Krug, M. The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis. Diversity 2022, 14, 697. https://doi.org/10.3390/d14090697

AMA Style

van Niekerk L, Lamberth SJ, James NC, Taljaard S, Adams JB, Theron AK, Krug M. The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis. Diversity. 2022; 14(9):697. https://doi.org/10.3390/d14090697

Chicago/Turabian Style

van Niekerk, Lara, Stephen J. Lamberth, Nicola C. James, Susan Taljaard, Janine B. Adams, Andre K. Theron, and Marjolaine Krug. 2022. "The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis" Diversity 14, no. 9: 697. https://doi.org/10.3390/d14090697

APA Style

van Niekerk, L., Lamberth, S. J., James, N. C., Taljaard, S., Adams, J. B., Theron, A. K., & Krug, M. (2022). The Vulnerability of South African Estuaries to Climate Change: A Review and Synthesis. Diversity, 14(9), 697. https://doi.org/10.3390/d14090697

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