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The Bayesian Design of Adaptive Clinical Trials
Article

Sample Size Requirements for Calibrated Approximate Credible Intervals for Proportions in Clinical Trials

Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro n. 5, 00185 Rome, Italy
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Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
These authors contributed equally to this work.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18(2), 595; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020595
Received: 1 November 2020 / Revised: 4 January 2021 / Accepted: 8 January 2021 / Published: 12 January 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Bayesian Design in Clinical Trials)
In Bayesian analysis of clinical trials data, credible intervals are widely used for inference on unknown parameters of interest, such as treatment effects or differences in treatments effects. Highest Posterior Density (HPD) sets are often used because they guarantee the shortest length. In most of standard problems, closed-form expressions for exact HPD intervals do not exist, but they are available for intervals based on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution. For small sample sizes, approximate intervals may be not calibrated in terms of posterior probability, but for increasing sample sizes their posterior probability tends to the correct credible level and they become closer and closer to exact sets. The article proposes a predictive analysis to select appropriate sample sizes needed to have approximate intervals calibrated at a pre-specified level. Examples are given for interval estimation of proportions and log-odds. View Full-Text
Keywords: Bayesian inference; highest posterior density intervals; normal approximation; predictive analysis; sample size determination Bayesian inference; highest posterior density intervals; normal approximation; predictive analysis; sample size determination
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MDPI and ACS Style

De Santis, F.; Gubbiotti, S. Sample Size Requirements for Calibrated Approximate Credible Intervals for Proportions in Clinical Trials. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 595. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020595

AMA Style

De Santis F, Gubbiotti S. Sample Size Requirements for Calibrated Approximate Credible Intervals for Proportions in Clinical Trials. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(2):595. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020595

Chicago/Turabian Style

De Santis, Fulvio, and Stefania Gubbiotti. 2021. "Sample Size Requirements for Calibrated Approximate Credible Intervals for Proportions in Clinical Trials" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 2: 595. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18020595

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