Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data on MM Incidence
2.2. Data on Asbestos Consumption
2.3. Data on Population
2.4. APC Model
- Rap: Incidence rate for age group a in calendar period p;
- Aa: Age component for age group a;
- D: Common drift parameter which summarizes the linear component of trend;
- Pp: Non-linear period component of period p;
- Cc: Non-linear cohort component in cohort c.
2.5. Poisson Regression Model Based on Asbestos Consumption
- a: Age group (0–39, 40–49, 50–59, 60–69, 70–79, 80+);
- Y: Year of occurrence;
- Ma,Y: Age-specific incident cases of MM for each year;
- C: Asbestos consumption per capita (kg) for each year;
- d: Data available years for each age group;
- e: Exposed year (from birth to occurrence, with latency);
- Sex: Dummy variable of sex (0: women, 1: men);
- Agei: Dummy variables of age group for each age group (baseline: 0–39 years of age);
- Sex·Agei: Interaction variables for sex and age;
- Lt: Latent period, 40 years;
- β0: Intercept;
- β1,β2, βi1, βi2: Regression coefficients;
- εa,Y: Errors.
2.6. Statistical Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Prediction for 2014–2018 and Empirical Validation
3.2. Predictions for 2019–2038 Based on the APC Model
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Sex | Observed Cases | Predicted Cases for 2014–2018 | E/O Ratio (95% CI) * | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1994–1998 | 1999–2003 | 2004–2008 | 2009–2013 | 2014–2018 | APC Model | Poisson Model | APC Model | Poisson Model | |
Men | 137 | 171 | 277 | 361 | 501 | 461 | 634 | 0.920 (0.843–1.004) | 1.265 (1.159–1.381) |
Women | 79 | 100 | 161 | 195 | 233 | 254 | 351 | 1.090 (0.999–1.119) | 1.506 (1.380–1.644) |
Age Group | Men | Women | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Observed Cases | Predicted Cases | E/O Ratio (95% CI) * | Observed Cases | Predicted Cases | E/O Ratio (95% CI) * | |||||
APC Model | Poisson Model | APC Model | Poisson Model | APC Model | Poisson Model | APC Model | Poisson Model | |||
0–39 | 11 | 11.6 | 17.8 | 1.055 (0.966–1.151) | 1.618 (1.483–1.766) | 15 | 19.7 | 13.5 | 1.313 (1.203–1.434) | 0.9 (0.825–0.982) |
40–49 | 25 | 38.8 | 95.4 | 1.552 (1.422–1.694) | 3.816 (3.496–4.165) | 20 | 13.8 | 45.9 | 0.69 (0.632–0.753) | 2.295 (2.103–2.505) |
50–59 | 95 | 95 | 275.1 | 1 (0.916–1.092) | 2.896 (2.653–3.161) | 50 | 61.6 | 132.1 | 1.232 (1.129–1.345) | 2.642 (2.420–2.884) |
60–69 | 165 | 121 | 141.0 | 0.733 (0.672–0.800) | 0.855 (0.783–0.933) | 60 | 76.8 | 87.4 | 1.28 (1.173–1.397) | 1.457 (1.335–1.590) |
70–79 | 157 | 163.2 | 101.5 | 1.039 (0.952–1.135) | 0.646 (0.592–0.706) | 61 | 50.4 | 56.3 | 0.826 (0.757–0.902) | 0.923 (0.846–1.007) |
80+ | 48 | 31.3 | 12.0 | 0.652 (0.597–0.712) | 0.25 (0.229–0.273) | 27 | 31.2 | 16.0 | 1.156 (1.059–1.261) | 0.593 (0.543–0.647) |
501 | 460.9 | 642.7 | 0.920 (0.843–1.004) | 1.265 (1.159–1.381) | 233 | 253.6 | 351.3 | 1.090 (0.999–1.119) | 1.506 (1.380–1.644) |
Sex | Observed | Predicted | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1999–2003 | 2004–2008 | 2009–2013 | 2014–2018 | 2019–2023 | 2024–2028 | 2029–2033 | 2034–2038 | |
Men | 171 | 277 | 361 | 501 | 645 | 825 | 999 | 1141 |
Women | 100 | 161 | 195 | 233 | 291 | 348 | 389 | 417 |
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Kwak, K.; Cho, S.-i.; Paek, D. Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 6614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126614
Kwak K, Cho S-i, Paek D. Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2021; 18(12):6614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126614
Chicago/Turabian StyleKwak, Kyeongmin, Sung-il Cho, and Domyung Paek. 2021. "Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 18, no. 12: 6614. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph18126614