Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Theoretical Model
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Model Forecast Procedures
3.1. Model Using South Korea’s Experience
3.2. Model Using Italy’s Experience
3.3. Comparing Actions across South Korea, Italy and Utah
Strengths and Limitations
Conflicts of Interest
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|New Cases||New Cases||Daily Spreadrate||New Cases||Daily Spreadrate|
|22-January||First reported case of Coronavirus |
|31-January||First reported cases of Coronavirus |
|3-February||Korean-made diagnostic test approved for use |
|20-February||Cluster in Lombardy Region identified |
|21-February||Public spaces closed and protests banned |
|23-February||Govt puts nation on highest alert, “Grave”, allowing order of temp closure of schools, reduction of travel, including public transport and flights to/from S. Korea ||11 municipalities in Lombardy quarantined |
|26-February||Announces relaxation of testing: connections to confirmed cases or recent travel to affected areas, testing upon onset of symptoms |
|29-February||Drive-through testing widely available |
|3-March||10% of medical workers in Lombardy diagnosed w/COVID-19 ||Univ. of Utah & Southern Utah Univ suspend study abroad |
|4-March||Order closure of all schools and universities |
|6-March||First reported case of Coronavirus; Governor declares State of Emergency [24,25]|
|8-March||Gov’t restricts movement to and from Lombardy region |
|9-March||Nation placed under quarantine orders travel ban |
|11-March||Order closure of businesses excl grocery and pharmacies ||Governor calls for 100-person limit at public gatherings |
|13-March||20% of medical workers in Lombardy are diagnosed w/COVID-19; some have died |
|14-March||274,504 tests for Coronavirus completed ||First documented case of community spread; Governor announces 2-week soft closure of public schools |
|16-March||Begin screening every person arriving at airports, incl citizens ||Summit and Salt Lake County announce closure of most public gathering places |
|17-March||Gov’t offers small subsidy (~$360) per month to anyone self-isolating, regardless of pos/neg test ||Governor halts in-restaurant dining; Utah officials tell patients not to seek testing |
|18-March||Lt. Governor makes public statement that no state-wide isolation orders are being considered |
|19-March||Reports 307,000+ tests conducted ||Becomes nation with highest COVID-19-related deaths in the world ||Large-scale testing begins |
|20-March||475 fatalities; gov’t outdoor exercise; military dispatched to Lombardy to ensure compliance with lock-down measures (9888 infractions for non-compliance) |
|21-March||3.8 trillion Korean won committed for disaster mgmt. funding, focusing on small business and disadvantaged people, particularly those with COVID-19-related difficulties ||2857 people in ICU, up from 2655 on 3/20 |
|23-March||School closures extended until May 1 |
|25-March||Summit County and Navajo Nation issue stay-at-home orders [39,40]; community spread confirmed in Washington County |
|27-March||Governor issues directive asking for voluntary self-isolation ; Salt Lake City Mayor issues stay-at-home directive |
|1-April||Governor announces suspension of evictions for Coronavirus-related non-payment of rent until May 15 |
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Share and Cite
Qeadan, F.; Honda, T.; Gren, L.H.; Dailey-Provost, J.; Benson, L.S.; VanDerslice, J.A.; Porucznik, C.A.; Waters, A.B.; Lacey, S.; Shoaf, K. Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 2750. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082750
Qeadan F, Honda T, Gren LH, Dailey-Provost J, Benson LS, VanDerslice JA, Porucznik CA, Waters AB, Lacey S, Shoaf K. Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(8):2750. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082750Chicago/Turabian Style
Qeadan, Fares, Trenton Honda, Lisa H. Gren, Jennifer Dailey-Provost, L. Scott Benson, James A. VanDerslice, Christina A. Porucznik, A. Blake Waters, Steven Lacey, and Kimberley Shoaf. 2020. "Naive Forecast for COVID-19 in Utah Based on the South Korea and Italy Models-the Fluctuation between Two Extremes" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 8: 2750. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17082750