Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data Sources
2.1. Overview of the Study Area
2.2. Data Sources and Preprocessing
2.2.1. Precipitation Data
2.2.2. Evapotranspiration
2.2.3. Available Water Capacity
2.2.4. Agricultural Irrigation and Zone Data
2.2.5. Crop Phenology and Zone Data
2.2.6. Historical Drought Data
3. Research Methods
3.1. Framework for Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment
3.2. Assessment of Drought Hazard
3.3. Assessment of Drought Vulnerability
3.3.1. Selection and Method for Calculation of the Drought Vulnerability Factor
(1) Climate factors
(2) Soil factors
(3) Irrigation factors
3.3.2. Drought Vulnerability Assessment Model
3.4. Assessment of Drought Risk
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Comprehensive Assessment of Agricultural Drought Hazard
4.1.1. Spatial Pattern of Drought Occurrence
4.1.2. Spatial Patterns of the Drought Hazard
4.1.3. Comparative Analysis of the Drought Hazard in the Various Agricultural Areas
4.2. Comprehensive Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability
4.2.1. Drought Vulnerability Factors for the Various Regions
4.2.2. Analysis of Spatial Patterns of Drought Vulnerability
4.2.3. Comparative Analysis of Drought Vulnerability for the Various Regions
4.3. Drought Risk Assessment and Spatial Analysis Patterns
4.3.1. Results for Drought Risk Assessment
4.3.2. Spatial Analysis Patterns for Assessment of Drought Risk
4.3.3. Comparison of Drought Risk for the Various Regions
4.3.4. Validation of Drought Risk Assessment
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Crop Type | Early Growing Season | Mid-Growth Season | End of Growing Season |
---|---|---|---|
Sugarcane | 0.40 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
Rice | 1.05 | 1.20 | 0.75 |
Cassava | 0.30 | 0.95 | 0.4 |
Station | 1975-01 | 1975-02 | 1975-03 | 1975-04 | 1975-05 | 2014-12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
56100 | −1.43 | −0.57 | −0.84 | 1.89 | 1.6 | −0.31 |
56101 | 0.09 | 0.56 | 0.83 | −0.16 | −0.01 | 0.49 |
56102 | 0.68 | 0.36 | 0.09 | −0.55 | 0.45 | −0.56 |
56103 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.14 | −1.11 | 0.7 | −0.28 |
56104 | −0.01 | 0.43 | 0.19 | −0.7 | 0.65 | 0.45 |
56105 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.2 | −0.93 | −1.45 | 0.88 |
56999 | −0.25 | −0.43 | −0.87 | 1.19 | 1.27 | −1.21 |
SPI (3) Value | Drought Level | Weightings | Incidence Rate |
---|---|---|---|
−1.0–0 | Mild drought | - | - |
−1.0–−1.49 | Moderate drought | 1 | low |
medium | |||
higher | |||
high | |||
−1.5–−1.99 | Severe drought | 2 | low |
medium | |||
higher | |||
high | |||
≤−2 | Extreme drought | 3 | low |
medium | |||
higher | |||
high |
Vulnerability Factor | Vulnerability Rating | Weightings |
---|---|---|
AWC | <100 mm | 4 |
100–175 mm | 3 | |
175–250 mm | 2 | |
>250 mm | 1 | |
<0 | 2 | |
0–30% | 3 | |
30–60% | 4 | |
>60% | 5 | |
Irrigation | Irrigated land | 1 |
Non-irrigated land | 4 |
Drought Hazard | Main Crops | ||
---|---|---|---|
Sugarcane | Cassava | Rice | |
Low | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Medium | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
Higher | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
High | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.24 |
Area | The Fraction of Area under Drought Vulnerability Conditions | Regional During the Growing Season (%) | Regional Average AWC (mm) | Regional Average Irrigation Area Fraction | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | Medium | Higher | High | ||||
Qinghai | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.0 | 166 | 0.07 |
Tibet | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.71 | 0.04 | 65.2 | 157 | 0.08 |
Sichuan | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 56.5 | 199 | 0.47 |
Yunnan | 0.24 | 0.46 | 0.24 | 0.06 | 58.5 | 181 | 0.62 |
Myanmar | 0.05 | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0.09 | 56.2 | 166 | 0.47 |
Thailand | 0.01 | 0.67 | 0.31 | 0.01 | 52.8 | 147 | 0.66 |
Laos | 0.05 | 0.36 | 0.58 | 0.01 | 54.5 | 165 | 0.39 |
Cambodia | 0.02 | 0.44 | 0.52 | 0.02 | 51.8 | 149 | 0.43 |
Vietnam | 0.18 | 0.66 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 53.3 | 166 | 0.85 |
Area | Proportion of Agricultural Risks By Region | High-Hazard Area Ratio | High-Vulnerability Area Ratio | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | Medium | Higher | High | |||
Yunnan | 0.14 | 0.45 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.81 | 0.07 |
Cambodia | 0.42 | 0.06 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.015 |
Laos | 0.27 | 0.16 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.006 |
Myanmar | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.24 | 0.30 | 0.08 | 0.087 |
Thailand | 0.09 | 0.59 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.008 |
Vietnam | 0.23 | 0.59 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.014 |
Qinghai | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.000 |
Sichuan | 0.69 | 0.23 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.003 |
Tibet | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.61 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.037 |
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Zhang, L.; Song, W.; Song, W. Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 6153. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176153
Zhang L, Song W, Song W. Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(17):6153. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176153
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Lei, Wei Song, and Wen Song. 2020. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17: 6153. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176153