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Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991–2014

1
Department of Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
2
Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden
3
Department of Geography, Kent State University, Kent, OH 4242, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16(10), 1696; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16101696
Received: 10 April 2019 / Revised: 3 May 2019 / Accepted: 10 May 2019 / Published: 14 May 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Temperature Variability and Mortality/Morbidity)
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Abstract

Much is known about the adverse health impact of high and low temperatures. The Spatial Synoptic Classification is a useful tool for assessing weather effects on health because it considers the combined effect of meteorological factors rather than temperature only. The aim of this study was to assess the association between oppressive weather types and daily total mortality in Sweden. Time-series Poisson regression with distributed lags was used to assess the relationship between oppressive weather (Dry Polar, Dry Tropical, Moist Polar, and Moist Tropical) and daily deaths over 14 days in the extended summer (May to September), and 28 days during the extended winter (November to March), from 1991 to 2014. Days not classified as oppressive weather served as the reference category. We computed relative risks with 95% confidence intervals, adjusting for trends and seasonality. Results of the southern (Skåne and Stockholm) and northern (Jämtland and Västerbotten) locations were pooled using meta-analysis for regional-level estimates. Analyses were performed using the dlnm and mvmeta packages in R. During summer, in the South, the Moist Tropical and Dry Tropical weather types increased the mortality at lag 0 through lag 3 and lag 6, respectively. Moist Polar weather was associated with mortality at longer lags. In the North, Dry Tropical weather increased the mortality at shorter lags. During winter, in the South, Dry Polar and Moist Polar weather increased mortality from lag 6 to lag 10 and from lag 19 to lag 26, respectively. No effect of oppressive weather was found in the North. The effect of oppressive weather types in Sweden varies across seasons and regions. In the North, a small study sample reduces precision of estimates, while in the South, the effect of oppressive weather types is more evident in both seasons. View Full-Text
Keywords: all-cause mortality; Spatial Synoptic Classification; oppressive weather types; distributed lag non-linear models; Sweden all-cause mortality; Spatial Synoptic Classification; oppressive weather types; distributed lag non-linear models; Sweden
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Fonseca-Rodríguez, O.; Lundevaller, E.H.; Sheridan, S.C.; Schumann, B. Association between Weather Types based on the Spatial Synoptic Classification and All-Cause Mortality in Sweden, 1991–2014. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 1696.

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