The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Research Area
2.2. Data Collection and Management
2.2.1. Disease Surveillance Data
2.2.2. Floods Data
2.2.3. Meteorological and Demographic Data
2.3. Statistical Analysis
- Model 1:Ln (Yt) = Ln (population) + β0 + β1 (floods) + s1 (t) + s2 (precipitation) + s3 (temperature) + s4 (humidity) + s5 (wind velocity) + s6 (sunshine duration) + s7 (sin2πt/12)
- Model 2:Ln (Yt) = Ln (population) + β0 + β1 (duration) + s1 (t) + s2 (precipitation) + s3 (temperature) + s4 (humidity) + s5 (wind velocity) + s6 (sunshine duration) + s7 (sin2πt/12)
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Analysis for the Disease and Meteorological Data
3.2. Correlation Analysis
3.3. Regression Analysis
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Financial Support
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Meteorological Factors | MCP | MAT | MARH | MAWV | MCSD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
MCP | 1.000 | ||||
MAT | −0.236 * | 1.000 | |||
MARH | 0.437 * | −0.214 * | 1.000 | ||
MAWV | −0.070 | 0.393 * | −0.211 * | 1.000 | |
MCSD | −0.389 * | 0.554 * | −0.565 * | 0.162 * | 1.000 |
Analyzed Variables | Flooded Months | Mean ± SD | Min | P25 | Median | P75 | Max |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Incidence of bacillary dysentery | Yes * | 133 ± 90 | 35 | 66 | 94 | 221 | 296 |
No | 79 ± 57 | 20 | 42 | 59 | 102 | 338 | |
MCP (mm) | Yes * | 7.54 ± 17.88 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 6.05 | 134.10 |
No | 2.30 ± 8.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 113.30 | |
MAT (°C) | Yes * | 27.35 ± 2.23 | 20.30 | 25.90 | 27.60 | 28.90 | 32.80 |
No | 21.51 ± 6.37 | 4.70 | 16.30 | 22.60 | 27.00 | 32.70 | |
MARH (%) | Yes * | 77.78 ± 8.87 | 45.00 | 72.00 | 78.00 | 84.00 | 100.00 |
No | 72.98 ± 10.56 | 25.00 | 66.75 | 73.00 | 80.00 | 100.00 | |
MAWV (m/s) | Yes | 1.48 ± 0.54 | 0.50 | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.80 | 3.70 |
No | 1.43 ± 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.80 | 4.50 | |
MCSD (h) | Yes * | 4.58 ± 3.57 | 0.00 | 1.10 | 4.50 | 7.60 | 11.60 |
No | 4.30 ± 3.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.20 | 7.70 | 11.80 |
Variables | Lag 0 | Lag 1 | Lag 2 |
---|---|---|---|
R (p Value) | R (p Value) | R (p Value) | |
Floods | 0.51 (<0.01) | 0.42 (0.05) | 0.38 (0.12) |
Duration (days) | −0.41 (0.01) | −0.30 (0.08) | −0.30 (0.06) |
MCP (mm) | 0.67 (<0.01) | 0.61 (<0.01) | 0.57 (<0.01) |
MAT (°C) | 0.49 (<0.01) | 0.43 (<0.01) | 0.39 (<0.01) |
MARH (%) | 0.25 (0.02) | 0.21 (0.23) | 0.23 (0.17) |
MAWV (m/s) | −0.28 (0.11) | −0.34 (0.01) | −0.21 (0.24) |
MCSD (h) | 0.29 (<0.01) | 0.36 (<0.01) | 0.24 (0.37) |
Model | Variables | Coefficients | p Value | RR (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1 * | Moderate floods | 0.34 | <0.01 | 1.40 (1.16–1.69) |
Severe floods | 0.58 | <0.01 | 1.78 (1.61–1.97) | |
Reference (no flood) | - | - | - | |
Model 2 * | Duration | −0.54 | <0.01 | 0.57 (0.40–0.86) |
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Liu, X.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Jiang, B. The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2017, 14, 179. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14020179
Liu X, Liu Z, Zhang Y, Jiang B. The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(2):179. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14020179
Chicago/Turabian StyleLiu, Xuena, Zhidong Liu, Ying Zhang, and Baofa Jiang. 2017. "The Effects of Floods on the Incidence of Bacillary Dysentery in Baise (Guangxi Province, China) from 2004 to 2012" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 14, no. 2: 179. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph14020179