Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

doi:10.3390/ijerph120911869

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Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

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Université de Montréal, DSEST, Montréal, QC H3T 1A8, Canada

EHESP School of Public Health, Rennes, Sorbonne-Paris Cité 35043, France

Institute for Health and Social Policy, McGill University, Montreal QC H3A 1A3, Canada

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Consortium Ouranos, Montréal, Département Scénarios et Services Climatiques, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada

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Institut National de Santé Publique du Québec, Montréal, QC H3A 1B9, Canada

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Direction de santé publique de l’Agence de la santé et des services sociaux de Montréal, QC H2P 1E2, Canada

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INSERM U1085 (IRSET), Rennes 35042, France

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Academic Editor: Jan C. Semenza

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(9), 11869-11879; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120911869

Received: 3 July 2015 / Revised: 29 August 2015 / Accepted: 15 September 2015 / Published: 22 September 2015

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Human Health)

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Abstract

Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future. View Full-Text

Keywords: social health inequalities; years of life lost; climate change; climate models; population health; temperature; time-series analyses

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Benmarhnia, T.; Grenier, P.; Brand, A.; Fournier, M.; Deguen, S.; Smargiassi, A. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 11869-11879. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120911869

AMA Style

Benmarhnia T, Grenier P, Brand A, Fournier M, Deguen S, Smargiassi A. Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015; 12(9):11869-11879. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120911869

Chicago/Turabian Style

Benmarhnia, Tarik, Patrick Grenier, Allan Brand, Michel Fournier, Séverine Deguen, and Audrey Smargiassi. 2015. "Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 12, no. 9: 11869-11879. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph120911869

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Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

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