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Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12(12), 15298-15308;

Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India

Vadu Rural Health Program, KEM Hospital Research Centre, Pune 411011, India
Epidemiology and Global Health, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
INDEPTH Network, Accra KD 213, Ghana
Centre for Demographic and Ageing Research, Umeå University, Umeå 901 87, Sweden
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Jan C. Semenza
Received: 25 August 2015 / Revised: 12 November 2015 / Accepted: 18 November 2015 / Published: 2 December 2015
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Human Health)
Full-Text   |   PDF [1383 KB, uploaded 2 December 2015]   |  


Many diseases are affected by changes in weather. There have been limited studies, however, which have examined the relationship between heat and cold and cause-specific mortality in low and middle-income countries. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effects of heat and cold days on total and cause-specific mortality in the Vadu Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) area in western India. We used a quasi-Poisson regression model allowing for over-dispersion to examine the association of total and cause-specific mortality with extreme high (98th percentile, >39 °C) and low temperature (2nd percentile, <25 °C) over the period January 2003 to December 2012. Delays of 0 and 0–4 days were considered and relative risks (RR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. Heat was significantly associated with daily deaths by non-infectious diseases (RR = 1.57; CI: 1.18–2.10). There was an increase in the risk of total mortality in the age group 12–59 years on lag 0 day (RR = 1.43; CI: 1.02–1.99). A high increase in total mortality was observed among men at lag 0 day (RR = 1.38; CI: 1.05–1.83). We did not find any short-term association between total and cause-specific mortality and cold days. Deaths from neither infectious nor external causes were associated with heat or cold. Our results showed a strong and rather immediate relationship between high temperatures and non-infectious disease mortality in a rural population located in western India, during 2003–2012. This study may be used to develop targeted interventions such as Heat Early Warning Systems in the area to reduce mortality from extreme temperatures. View Full-Text
Keywords: heat; cold; temperature; mortality; cause-specific mortality; India heat; cold; temperature; mortality; cause-specific mortality; India

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Ingole, V.; Rocklöv, J.; Juvekar, S.; Schumann, B. Impact of Heat and Cold on Total and Cause-Specific Mortality in Vadu HDSS—A Rural Setting in Western India. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2015, 12, 15298-15308.

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