Improving High-Precision BDS-3 Satellite Orbit Prediction Using a Self-Attention-Enhanced Deep Learning Model

Precise Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) orbit prediction is critical for real-time positioning applications. Current orbit prediction accuracy for the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System-3 (BDS-3) exhibits a notable disparity compared to GPS and Galileo, with limited advancements from traditional dynamic modeling approaches. This study introduces a novel data-driven methodology, Sample Convolution and Interaction Network with Self-Attention (SCINet-SA), to augment dynamic methods and improve BDS-3 ultra-rapid orbit prediction. SCINet-SA leverages deep learning to model the temporal characteristics of orbit differences between BDS-3 ultra-rapid and final products. By training on historical orbit difference data, SCINet-SA predicts future discrepancies, facilitating the refinement of ultra-rapid orbit estimates. The incorporation of a self-attention mechanism within SCINet-SA enables the model to effectively capture long-range temporal dependencies, thereby enhancing long-term prediction capabilities and mitigating the latency associated with final product availability. Rigorous experimental evaluation demonstrates the superior performance of SCINet-SA in enhancing BDS-3 ultra-rapid orbit prediction accuracy relative to alternative deep learning models. Specifically, SCINet-SA achieved the highest average relative improvement (IMP) in 3D Root Mean Square (RMS) error across 1 d, 7 d, and 15 d prediction horizons, yielding improvements of 21.69%, 18.66%, and 15.42%, respectively. The observed IMP range spanned from 7.78% to 38.91% for 1 d, 4.34% to 35.96% for 7 d, and 1.68% to 31.13% for 15 d predictions, underscoring the efficacy of the proposed methodology in advancing BDS-3 orbit prediction accuracy.